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Friday 14 May 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (May 14-16)

The Champions and the three relegated teams have already been decided with three Premier League rounds of fixtures to be played.

Two of the top four places have been secured, but the focus will be on which teams can pick up the remaining two spots in the Champions League, while the battle for European Football is likely going to come down until the final day of the season next Sunday.

It is not exactly what gets the broadcasters pumped up, but at least means there is some competitive football still to be played in the Premier League.

This weekend we also have the FA Cup Final and that means four teams will not have a Premier League fixture over the next three days, while the big question for clubs in the top flight is finding a way to keep players motivated who may be thinking about preserving themselves for the upcoming Euro 2020 tournament or to make sure they are ready to enjoy a well deserved break at the end of a long season.


Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: The relegation trio and the Champions of the Premier League have all been decided over the last week and that has taken some of the shine out of this Premier League game on Friday evening.

When the fixtures were announced, Newcastle United and Manchester City both may have looked like they will need the points but there should now be a freedom in their performances.

To be honest Manchester City have been playing with a sense of freedom for weeks and months now as they have dismissed their rivals and there should still be plenty of motivation in the ranks. They were beaten in their last Premier League game for starters and the players selected will be looking to show their manager they should be given the trustworthy starting roles in the Champions League Final to be played in Portugal at the end of the month.

A long winning run away from home in the Premier League will also be one Manchester City will be looking to extend, while a poor couple of results in their last two visits to St James' Park won't be far from the mind either.

Newcastle United will have to match the intensity the away side are likely to bring to the field, but the loss of Callum Wilson is a big blow. They will still offer a threat on the counter, but Newcastle United will have to defend a lot better than they have in recent weeks despite the positive results they have largely secured.

I do think the pace from the wide areas will be a problem for Manchester City, but I also expect to see a strong team picked by Pep Guardiola and one that should be able to secure a victory by a couple of goals on the night.


Burnley v Leeds United Pick: There may not be a lot for either team to gain come Saturday afternoon, but the flip view is that neither Burnley nor Leeds United have much to lose and so can play with some openness.

That has certainly been the approach taken by Burnley in recent weeks and that has resulted in the team creating plenty of chances in Premier League games played. However, it has also left Burnley a little more open defensively and it is no surprise that so many goals have been scored in their games over the last six weeks.

We may get more of the same on Saturday afternoon when Burnley host Leeds United, a team that largely plays with the same attacking desire in every fixture they take part in. Last week it proved to be crucial as Leeds United hammered Tottenham Hotspur at home, although they have been more vulnerable away from home.

Both teams look pretty good injury wise so this could be a fascinating game that will be sparked by a first half goal. Burnley have scored and conceded in each of their last 4 Premier League games at Turf Moor, while Leeds United have not kept an away clean sheet in 10 Premier League games.

The visitors do cause problems going forward though and I think both teams will have joy in the final third which should produce a game that features at least three goals. The game at Elland Road may only have had one goal shared out on the day, but both Leeds United and Burnley created plenty of chances that day and the likes of Patrick Bamford and Chris Wood have been in the kind of form to gobble those up if they are produced here.


Southampton v Fulham Pick: After beating Liverpool at Anfield, Fulham were on level points with Brighton and a point behind Newcastle United and I think there would have been plenty ready to back a team with momentum to escape the bottom three.

Amazing Fulham never managed to pull themselves out of the relegation zone for even a weekend and a single point over the next seven League games means relegation has been confirmed with three Premier League fixtures still to play.

A lack of goals has hurt Fulham all season, but the mid-season defensive improvement's have not been in evidence over the last two months. They have conceded 14 goals in their last 7 Premier League games and Fulham have scored 3 goals in that time which has proved to be costly.

Fulham have been a team that has played well enough and they do get into good positions to create chances, but there is a lack of cutting edge and that has seen them fail to bridge the gap between the Championship and the Premier League.

On Saturday they may be shown what a proven goalscorer can do at this level when facing a Southampton team coming in off a 3-1 win over Crystal Palace. The Saints would have been extremely grateful to Danny Ings who scored twice on the day and his goals are always going to be important for Southampton in any survival battle they get involved in.

Southampton are unbeaten in 3 at home and they are a team that create chances at St Mary's. I can't see them doing anything else against a Fulham team that may be feeling sorry for themselves and two seasons ago Fulham did lose their last 2 Premier League games as the motivation perhaps ran out.

A solid home record against Fulham only gives Southampton another edge and I think they are likely enough in the final third to earn another three points on Saturday.


Brighton v West Ham United Pick: Injuries and suspensions have piled up on the Brighton side of this fixture and that may be positive news for a West Ham United team who are looking to keep the pressure up on those teams inside the top four.

On a weekend when two of those clubs are playing each other in the FA Cup Final, West Ham United have a chance to move to within 3 points of Chelsea and 5 points of Leicester City knowing those two clubs play again in the Premier League during the week.

David Moyes has to get his team focusing on themselves and 3 losses in 4 Premier League games will have dented some of the confidence. West Ham United have largely been competitive in those losses with decisions and a bit of fortune going against them, but they can't look for excuses and David Moyes is likely to pick another attacking line up here.

A defeat could be costly, but a point is not something West Ham United can settle for before a ball has been kicked.

They will be playing a Brighton team with a host of defensive absentees and one that will offer up chances for opponents, although The Seagulls have to be respected for the way they have put their own attacks together.

Brighton have won 2 of their last 3 Premier League games here and have had clean sheets in all of those fixtures, but I expect West Ham United to challenge that. They are capable of creating chances, but West Ham United will likely leave the backdoor open too and that has seen opponents create plenty against them too.

Games between these clubs over the last couple of seasons have seen both teams hit the back of the net and I think there is every chance another attacking game develops here. An early goal could really get the game going and I think there will be at least three goals shared out between teams who have some defensive issues, but attacking players that can take advantage of those vulnerabilities.


Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Pick: The early kick off on Sunday in the Premier League could be an open game considering both Crystal Palace and Aston Villa don't really have much to lose in the final eight days of the season.

In recent games that both teams have been playing there has been a sense of a more attacking enterprise and that is especially the case for Roy Hodgson at Crystal Palace. The veteran manager may know his time is running out as manager of this club and he will look back at a successful period with Crystal Palace, but that also means Roy Hodgson can pick his attacking players and look for them to get forward and cause problems for opponents.

Crystal Palace have not had the results, but they have been creating chances although defensive injuries means they are vulnerable at the other end of the field.

You don't always know what you are going to get from Aston Villa, but the return of Jack Grealish is absolutely huge for the squad. His creativity and ability to make spaces for others has been a huge miss for Aston Villa as they have struggled in recent weeks, while defensively Aston Villa have looked a little vulnerable.

Crystal Palace should cause problems, but Grealish and Ollie Watkins should be able to do the same for their team. It would not be a massive surprise if both teams score, but I am surprised Aston Villa are such a big favourite to win away from home.

I think it will be a tight and competitive game right through to the final minute, but my feeling is that Crystal Palace are perhaps playing the better football of the two teams of late. They are a surprising home underdog in my opinion and I would not be surprised if Crystal Palace earned a positive result in the early kick off.


Tottenham Hotspur v Wolves Pick: Both Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves will likely look back at the 2020/21 season with a real sense of regret, although the hosts of this Premier League game have more to lose this weekend.

Some fans may feel a season without European Football would be a benefit for them, but the higher ups at Tottenham Hotspur will miss the extra revenue that can be generated from the extra games. Ryan Mason will be well aware of that and he will be looking for his team to have a big reaction after the 3-1 loss at Leeds United last weekend.

It was a poor display defensively which was costly, but Mason is picking attacking teams and I think that is very important for Tottenham Hotspur this weekend. The side have won both home games under Ryan Mason and scored six goals in those victories, while they are facing a Wolves team who have been giving up plenty of big chances in recent games.

There has been a resiliency about Wolves that has to be respected though and they have been earning results despite the underlying numbers not being as strong as they would like. Last week they turned around the game against Brighton after the visitors were reduced to ten men, but Wolves do have pace in the final third which can cause problems for Spurs if there hasn't been enough defensive preparation worked on over the last week.

Ultimately Ryan Mason looks like someone sending his attacking players out on the field and hoping to out-score opponents and I do think Spurs can do that this weekend. The issue with Tottenham Hotspur is the defensive vulnerability which could give Wolves the chance for a hat-trick of wins against them in North London, but there has been a lack of attacking consistency from Wolves.

It may be that factor which is most at display and Tottenham Hotspur can win this game by a couple of goals on the day with their attacking players out-performing those Wolves use.


West Brom v Liverpool Pick: The unexpected Chelsea defeat to Arsenal last Wednesday has opened the door for Liverpool to push back into the top four places before the final whistle on the final day and the squad look like one that is focused on making sure they take advantage of the slips of those above them.

If Liverpool win their last 3 Premier League games they will now be favourites to finish in the top four and they will be looking to put some real pressure on Chelsea and Leicester City who are not involved in League action this weekend.

Those two clubs play one another in the Premier League next Tuesday, but Liverpool can move to within 3 points of Leicester City in 3rd place with a victory. That would mean it doesn't matter what happens in the Chelsea League game against Leicester City, but there is also some pressure on Liverpool to keep winning.

Momentum has been earned from back to back wins and Liverpool have won 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games to boost confidence. They have been scoring a fair few goals of late, but Liverpool's defence is anything but watertight.

Some have suggested this is an 'easy' game against a relegated West Brom team, but Sam Allardyce's side have been tough to face down the stretch. Last month they beat Chelsea and West Brom created plenty of chances in the defeat at Arsenal last Sunday, while a nothing to lose attitude makes The Baggies a team that should be respected.

West Brom have lost 1 of their last 7 at The Hawthorns, although the fixture list has not been the most taxing in that time. What has been encouraging is how competitive West Brom have been in those games and I do think they will challenge a Liverpool team that have been conceding plenty of goals.

Defensively it is difficult to imagine the home team keeping a clean sheet, but they have only conceded two goals in 5 games at The Hawthorns. It certainly suggests Liverpool are not going to walk through West Brom here and I think both teams hitting the back of the net is not out of the question.

Sam Allardyce has history in upsetting the Liverpool fans and I certainly think his team can make this a very tough, intense test for a team who played on Thursday.


Everton v Sheffield United Pick: Another game with dropped points might be costly for Everton who are desperately trying to earn their spot in the top seven of the Premier League and return to European Football.

Their destiny is now out of their own hands, but Everton have to find a way to start winning games at home if they are going to put enough pressure on their rivals around them and move into those places. However, it is very difficult to really believe in Everton considering they have won 1 of their last 10 Premier League games at Goodison Park even if they have been creating chances in those games and lacked a finishing touch.

At least this weekend Everton could not have picked a better opponent than Sheffield United who have been not only been losing games like it is going out of fashion, but have been struggling to stop teams creating big chances against them.

Add in the really poor performance in the final third and you would have to say that Everton will not deserve a European adventure if they cannot win a game like this one.

The likes of Newcastle United, Fulham and Burnley have all won at Goodison Park since the end of January and that is a concern for Everton fans, but Sheffield United have looked way out of their depth at this level.

James Rodriguez could be back for Everton and his creativity will be important as they look for a vital three points. Barring a complete lack of concentration, Everton should have enough in the final third to push through Sheffield United and at least go into the final two games with everything to play for.

Pressure can do a funny thing to teams, but Sheffield United have looked like the end of the season can't come quick enough in recent weeks and Everton should be able to take advantage.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Burnley-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals
Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Brighton-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals
Crystal Palace + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap
West Brom + 2 Asian Handicap
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 36
The Wild Card used to set the team up for a decent GW35 proved to be the right decision with a triple digit return without the need to take a hit.

However, the problem was that there were going to be a number of players that will be blanking in GameWeek 36 and I have already accepted that I will take a hit to change the squad around.

At this stage of the season it is hard to find the teams with motivation, but the 2020/21 campaign looks like it has offered up some easy options- the most obvious is Liverpool who have the form, the fixtures and the motivation which means having less than three players from their squad would be a mistake.

Over the next couple of rounds of games, Everton and Tottenham Hotspur have some decent games and need to put some wins together, while Leeds United and West Ham United have players priced at a decent value to help strengthen other areas.


So where are my hits being taken- the two Leicester City players, James Maddison and Kelechi Iheanacho, are blanking this week and also have two tough fixtures to come.

My last option is either going to be Marcus Rashford or Mason Greenwood with my lean going to the higher priced player to open the door for more options.

I think the targeted players have to come from those five clubs I have mentioned above, although I do have three Everton players as long as James Rodriguez is passed fit.

Liverpool, Leeds United and West Ham United really do have three decent fixtures in front of them, while Everton and Tottenham Hotspur have a difficult away fixture to negotiate in GW38. That may mean my focus for transfers is on the first three of those five teams named, although it is a decision that will likely be made right down to the wire with another horrible Friday deadline to negotiate.

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