Tennis Picks 2019 (February 13th)

The tournaments continue on Wednesday and we move into the Second Round for the majority of those, although some First Round matches have also got to be played.

Tuesday proved to be a good, but not a spectacular start to the week despite a very good start to the day. The later picks in Doha, New York and Buenos Aires were not so positive but overall you can never complain about a winning start to the week.

Wednesday is going to be another busy day with a huge amount of matches scheduled. I have a full Picks written out which you can read below, but I may have to add those from Buenos Aires and New York once the markets have been put together. A number of those matches are involving players who have had to win First Round matches on Tuesday and so the layers take a little time to get the prices out on the next matches set to go.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: A couple of strong weeks have been put into the books by Daniil Medvedev and Jeremy Chardy, although it was the former who added yet another title to his collection in his young career. Last week Medvedev was barely pushed in winning the title in Sofia and that has seen the organisers in Rotterdam give him a little more time to be ready for another indoor event.

Backing up titles are tough for even the very best players on the Tour and the short turnaround from winning in Sofia and then flying to Rotterdam and getting used to the new conditions is tough for Medvedev. You have to assume Chardy has been on the site for a few more days having been beaten in the Quarter Final in Montpellier last week, but that was a good showing from the veteran Frenchman and he has something to build upon as he looks to improve his Ranking to the point of being Seeded at the bigger events coming up in the months ahead.

The goal for Medvedev is bigger than that this season as he looks to push on and perhaps challenge for a place in the ATP Tour Finals. He is one of a number of young players looking to take the next step in their career, but Medvedev has arguably opened 2019 in the best form of the likes of Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov, even if it is Tsitsipas who has had the run that has made the most impact on the Tour when reaching the Australian Open Semi Final.

Daniil Medvedev has been looking after his own serve incredibly well over the last six weeks on the hard courts and an almost 87% hold rate is a strong showing. However the reason Medvedev has reached two Finals and won a title is because of the way he has been returning and the Russian has managed to break serve in 31% of return games on the surface which is a really good number.

The returning side of his game has really improved over the last thirteen months and that makes Medvedev a tough out for anyone not Ranked in the top 10 at the moment. He gave Novak Djokovic plenty of things to think about in their match at the Australian Open and that percentage of games where he has broken serve is almost double what Jeremy Chardy has produced at 17%.

In the last year Chardy has found the return of serve a little difficult on the hard courts and it does put a lot of pressure on him to find his best with the ball in hand. So far he is holding at 85% on the season on this surface, but I think that number will drop over the weeks and months ahead and this is going to be a tough challenge for him if Medvedev is feeling fresh and seeing the ball as well as he has been so far in 2019.

Plus in this match Chardy is taking on one of the better players on the Tour and he has not exactly thrived in this spot on the hard courts. Since the start of the 2017 season Chardy has played fourteen matches against players Ranked in the top 20 on the hard courts and his record is 3-11. In those matches the Frenchman's hold percentage drops significantly to 70% and his break percentage is down to 12% and that is not going to cut it against an in-form Medvedev who has played some strong tennis on this surface.

Fatigue is a concern, but Medvedev should be ready to go on Wednesday after playing the Sofia Final on Sunday and I think he will have too much power on the return for Chardy to deal with. I expect Medvedev to make enough balls back in play to get into rallies and break down Chardy and I think he can cover the big looking number on his way to another win in 2019.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Thomas Fabbiano: The title win in Montpellier was an important one for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if only to give him a real boost in confidence on his return to the Tour after a long injury issue meant playing just six matches at the back end of the 2018 season after being away from the Tour since March.

It helped to bring his World Ranking back up to Number 140 and the next few months are going to be a good chance for Tsonga to start making a significant move up the Rankings. With no points to defend everything he earns goes to improving that Ranking, but the danger is that he won't be Seeded at some of the big events coming up and thus could end up playing the likes of Novak Djokovic very early in the draws as he did at the Australian Open.

The Frenchman is not ready to compete with the likes of Djokovic just yet, but he was in great form last week in Montpellier as he continues to play some of his best tennis in front of home supporters. This week Tsonga has used his Protected Ranking to enter the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam and this is a tournament he has enjoyed in the past having reached one Final and also winning the title here when last competing at the event in 2017.

Tsonga has had a few days to get ready for this tournament and he should be well rested having not really been pushed too hard in the Semi Final or Final in Montpellier. That will help as will as the booming serve which has helped Tsonga win 70% of the points behind that shot as well as holding serve at just under 88% of the time. Take away the loss to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open and you can see how important the serve has been to Tsonga and also covers up some of the deficiencies when it comes to the return of serve.

It is an area that Italian Thomas Fabbiano will try and expose especially as he has been showing some decent serving numbers in 2019. Over the last twelve months Fabbiano has a strong record on the hard courts, but his overall numbers have been boosted by the Challenger and Qualifying events he has participated in.

He still needs to be respected when you think he is holding at around 80% over the last twelve months in main ATP matches on the hard courts, but the returning numbers have been slightly down on what Tsonga is able to produce. That could be the key to the match with Tsonga likely able to get a little more consistency out of his serve compared with Fabbiano and the pressure build up may just see the Italian crack at times.

Unlike Tsonga, Fabbiano is going to have to work hard to make sure he is looking after his service games and can't rely on the cheap points that Tsonga is able to pick up. It does leave him vulnerable is Tsonga is rattling through games and I think the favourite can be backed to cover a number I would not usually be comfortable backing Tsonga to do so.

This could be fairly tight in terms of the cover, but I do think if Tsonga looks after his own serve as he has been doing he should get the chances to do that. The Fabbiano serve will be similar to the likes of Radu Albot and Gilles Simon and both of those players were broken down by Tsonga in Montpellier last week and I will look for him to do the same to the Italian here.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Andreas Seppi: The Second Round gets underway at the ATP Rotterdam tournament on Wednesday and it is Gael Monfils who will be playing on back to back days. He battled hard to get past David Goffin in the First Round and now the Frenchman will be favoured to beat Andreas Seppi in this match.

It has been a good start to 2019 for Monfils who is looking to get his World Ranking moving back in a positive direction. The run to the Semi Final in Sofia last week was important for Monfils and the character shown in the First Round suggests he is looking to back up that week with another strong showing in Rotterdam having reached the Final when he last played in the event.

The serve has been a big weapon for Monfils who is holding at 84% so far in 2019 but he will feel there is some room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve. The percentage of return points won has remained pretty steady since 2017, but Monfils would love to up the break percentage from the current 25% mark he is operating at.

It won't be easy to do that on the hard courts over the course of 2019, but Monfils should have some success facing Andreas Seppi who is holding serve at below 80% on the hard courts so far this season. That is slightly down on his 2017 and 2018 numbers, but the veteran is surely going to take a step back down in level of performance too and this may be the start of that.

The Italian has been returning well enough from the small sample we have from the first six weeks of the season, but Seppi has to find a way to get into the Monfils service games in this Second Round match. He has just been a little inconsistent when it comes to return games over the last few weeks, but Seppi did battle through a difficult First Round match that could give him some confidence to take into the match.

This is actually the seventh time these players are facing one another, but the last of those was some time ago and I am not sure those head to head stats are that relevant. Andreas Seppi beat Gael Monfils when they last met on a hard court in 2012, but that is a long time ago now and I do think Seppi is not quite as good as he once was.

We should be expecting a competitive match between these two players, but it looks like Monfils has a slight edge when it comes to the serve and the return of serve and that should add up to a win for the Frenchman. As long as he is not feeling too tired from his exertions in beating David Goffin I think Monfils is going to be working into a position to beat Andreas Seppi and also cover this number in the victory.


Julia Goerges - 4.5 games v Alison Riske: Over the last couple of years Julia Goerges has begun to show some serious form on the hard courts and she is now one of the better players on this surface on the WTA Tour. The German is still capable of producing a really poor performance on any given day and her return game needs work but Goerges has a serve that gives her every chance of winning matches on the hard courts.

When that serve is firing Goerges can be very difficult to stay with and she showed that by saving all eight break points faced in her First Round win over Qualifier Alja Tomljanovic on Tuesday. The first serve is a particularly strong weapon for Julia Goerges and she is going to need to see that shot at its best if she is going to beat Alison Riske in the Second Round.

The American has been given a second chance to enter the draw after losing in the Qualifiers and earning a 'Lucky Loser' spot in the main draw. She took full advantage by winning her First Round match and Alison Riske is playing well enough in 2019 to believe she can challenge one of the top players on the WTA Tour.

Her return game has mainly been much better than the Goerges return game in 2019, but you can't ignore the kind of level of opponents both have played. When Alison Riske has been asked to step up and play a top 20 Ranked player on the hard courts since January 2017 she has struggled to maintain those return numbers and that puts too much pressure on her to produce a big serving day.

In those matches against top 20 Ranked players on this surface, Riske is 3-8 but her service numbers and return numbers take a big hit. The latter drops from around a 43% of return points won to 39% when facing those better players and it is going to be a real test for her to get involved in the Goerges service games considering how the latter has been playing.

I can't ignore the Goerges numbers which sees her winning around 41% of return points on the hard courts and that means a good serving day from Riske will give her the chance of the upset. However I can see the pressure building up thanks to the Goerges serve and that may see Riske go for a little more to protect her own serve and also begun to be picked off as she heads towards the net to shorten points.

In their one previous match, which was also played on the hard courts, it was the Goerges serve that dominated and she was able to break Riske four times in that match in Miami in 2017. I expect Goerges to have the majority of break points in this one too and I think she can make her way through to the Quarter Final with a good looking win that sees her cover a big number.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mackenzie McDonald - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 2.94 Units (16 Units Staked, + 18.38% Yield)