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Saturday, 3 June 2023

French Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2023 (June 3rd)

The business end of any Grand Slam tournament begins in the second week and I do think it is very important for players to try and move through the first three Rounds with as little energy expended as possible.

The 2023 French Open has seemingly made that tougher than ever and there has been a lot of matches that have gone on and one in the early stages of the tournament. Some will blame the heavier ball and the windy conditions, but sixteen names have secured their places in the Fourth Round and sixteen more players are trying to do the same on Saturday.

At this stage it still feels like the potential Semi Final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic may decide the men's Champion, although a host of contenders are still alive in Paris and those will all feel they are in a position to secure a Slam title.

The 'Big Three' at the top of the WTA Tour are also all still in contention to win the French Open, but I think Iga Swiatek looks a short price, even if she has won two of the last three tournaments played in Paris. The defending Champion has looked strong, but Aryna Sabalenka is in ominous form and I do think she will benefit from being on the other side of the draw to Swiatek and Elena Rybakina.

More twists and turns are to come, but the French Open is set up for a strong conclusion to the second Grand Slam of the season.


The last couple of days has seen the Tennis Picks start slowly before a strong end to the day, but it was slightly different on Friday.

Another winning day has been produced, but the numbers are still tight and I need more to really push this tournament towards a successful outcome for the selections being made.

Friday did not have as many good looking options as Saturday, but all that counts is putting the winners on the board and looking to keep some momentum going into the second week of the tournament.


Holger Rune - 8.5 games v Genaro Alberto Olivieri: Any player will want to build some rhythm and confidence while playing at a Grand Slam, but earning a Bye through one Round can also be hugely beneficial come the business end of the tournament. For one of the favourites a Bye should not be an issue at all and Holger Rune has to be excited about this Third Round match coming up.

He is going to be a big favourite to reach the Fourth Round at the French Open again, but I also think an opponent like Genaro Alberto Olivieri will provide a comfortable match up for Holger Rune to feel his tennis back on the court.

A clay court specialist, Genaro Alberto Olivieri has not really shown a lot of form over the last couple of years on the red dirt while operating at a much lower level than this one. That has made the run through the Qualifiers and into the Third Round a real surprise and Olivieri is going to be rewarded with a new high career World Ranking mark, although he is still someway out of the top 100.

The draw has been a kind one for Genaro Alberto Olivieri, but nothing has come easy for him and now he has to play one of the top talents on the Tour and someone who is going to genuinely believe he can win the French Open title. I think there will be a lot of pressure on the Olivieri serve, which he holds at 67% on the red dirt prior to this Grand Slam tournament beginning and those matches have been played against players that have been Ranked outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings too.

Holger Rune has broken in 28% of return games played on the clay courts in 2023 and that mark moves to 31% when considering opponents outside of the top 50. The Dane's return only backs up what is a very strong serve and I do think he is going to be able to cover a wide handicap mark against an opponent that is not really going to try and change his approach, but who will try and out-rally Rune from the back of the court.

That is a tall task for the top players, but for Genaro Alberto Olivieri it feels like next to an impossibility and I think Holger Rune makes serene progress through to the Fourth Round.

Genaro Alberto Olivieri dropped serve six times in the Second Round and I expect Holger Rune to earn at least as many breaks of serve in this match, which should lead to a relatively routine win if the top ten player serves even at 80% of the level he can reach.


Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Frances Tiafoe: The early defeat suffered by Daniil Medvedev has opened up the bottom half of the men's draw, but it might have really benefited the winner of this Third Round match.

While Casper Ruud and Holger Rune are on a collision course at the Quarter Final stage, the winner of this match between Alexander Zverev and Frances Tiafoe is likely going to be a big favourite to make it through to the Semi Final. They should be the fresher player in any Semi Final assuming the Rune-Ruud match up takes place and is as tough as it was twelve months ago and that could give Zverev/Tiafoe a big opportunity to reach the Final.

Both of these players have impressed in the French Open, but it should be noted that the level of competition certainly picks up in this Third Round match up. Out of the two, I do think the Frances Tiafoe wins have been more impressive, but the American has not really shown a deep love for the clay courts in his career and he is 0-2 when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface this season.

Alexander Zverev has yet to drop a set and looked very impressive in the Second Round, but he is still searching for his best tennis since the injury suffered in Paris twelve months ago. There have been signs of that returning during the clay court season and it should be noted that three of the five losses Alexander Zverev has suffered on the red dirt have been against top ten Ranked opponents.

One of the other defeats was to Nicolas Jarry, who is playing at an extremely high level, and Alexander Zverev's numbers against players Ranked outside the top ten have been very strong on this surface this season.

The head to head is also very much in Alexander Zverev's favour, although Frances Tiafoe is a much improved player since these two last met in October 2021. Those previous meetings have been on the hard courts in the main and that is a surface that Tiafoe enjoys more than the clay courts and I do think the lower Ranked player can win this match in three or four sets.

Frances Tiafoe rarely lets a match get away from him and I have to respect that, but Zverev on a clay court should have the big serving to keep the match in his own control. While Frances Tiafoe has been serving well in this tournament, I think he will be challenged by the Alexander Zverev return and the 28% of return games played against Tiafoe which have led to a break of serve.

These two did play a memorable five setter at the US Open in 2019, but I expect Alexander Zverev to have more of an edge on the clay and he should be able to win with a bit more room to spare.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Daniel Altmaier: It was the biggest win of his career, but Daniel Altmaier is going to have to go some to back up the victory over Jannik Sinner.

After dropping the third set 6-1, it did look like Daniel Altmaier's race had been run, but he came from 2-1 down in sets to win the match, although it cannot be a good thing that he had to play for four minutes short of five and a half hours against a quality opponent like the Italian.

Winning will always give a player confidence, and Altmaier will be heading back towards the top 50 of the World Rankings and will crack that mark if he can reach the second week in Paris.

Like so many in the past, backing up a career best victory like the one produced in the Second Round is going to be the challenge for Daniel Altmaier and he is going to have spent a lot of physical and emotional energy already in this tournament. Now he has to face a former top ten player and one who has been comfortable on the clay courts and played a solid 2023 season when you don't consider the matches against the likes of Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.

Grigor Dimitrov lost both of those and was beaten by eventual Geneva Champion Nicolas Jarry last week, but he has won plenty of matches on the red dirt and has not nearly needed the same effort as his opponent to win his two matches played in Paris.

I do find it hard to trust Dimitrov because of a relatively weak return game on the clay courts, which is a disappointment for those who believed the Bulgarian was going to be amongst the very best players on the Tour. On his day he can be, but I think Dimitrov can find it tough to cover handicap marks like the one set for this match with a limited return.

However, you have to believe that fatigue is an issue for Daniel Altmaier and it should allow Grigor Dimitrov to get himself going in this match.

If the lower Ranked player is not able to generate the kind of pace he would expect, Grigor Dimitrov may have one of his better return games and I think that shows up on the scoreboard. He has only reached the second week at the French Open once before, and even that was in the tournament played in the Autumn during the Covid impacted 2020 Tour, but Dimitrov should be able to work his way into a position to progress in three or, more likely, four sets.

Daniel Altmaier had lost four clay court matches in a row against top 50 Ranked opponents before the upset of Jannik Sinner, but I don't think he will have enough in the tank to back that one up.


Other Selections: It is a busy day with the Third Round concluding at Roland Garros before the tournament moves into the second week.

Matches will become more competitive with the higher Ranked players that are making their way through the draw.

I am anticipating relatively straight-forward wins for Nicolas Jarry and Casper Ruud, but I also think surprising names like Thiago Seyboth Wild and Tomas Martin Etcheverry can earn wins over higher Ranked opponents who have perhaps not been as happy on the clay courts.

Iga Swiatek should have a third big win at the tournament, although she will know that there is room for improvement despite losing just eight games through the first two Rounds.

Other contenders like Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur should be able to come through against confident opponents, while Beatriz Haddad Maia is the stronger clay courter compared with Ekaterina Alexandrova and can show that.

One underdog that looks to be a live player in the Third Round is Lesia Tsurenko, even if she is going up against one of my favourite WTA players Bianca Andreescu.

The big WTA match of the day features Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva and these two could be competing with one another for big prizes over the course of the next decade. The first concern for both is getting closer to the 'Big Three' on the Tour, but this is a fascinating match and perhaps the 'coming out' party for Andreeva.

However, I still think Gauff deserves a bigger edge than the layers are giving her and the 2022 Runner Up can just remind people of her own special talent with a good Third Round win.

MY PICKS: Holger Rune - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thiago Seyboth Wild - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff  @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 24-18, + 4.14 Units (84 Units Staked, + 4.93% Yield)

Thursday, 1 June 2023

French Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2023 (June 2nd)

For the second day in a row, the early Tennis Picks could not return a winner, but the later selections turned the day around.

I was a little disappointed with the Casper Ruud failure to cover considering his domination of the first two sets, while Lauren Davis withdraw when it looked like Lesia Tsurenko was going to return a winner.

Frustrations with Borna Coric's performance meant I was settling in for a losing day, but a few things began to go the way of the selections including Iga Swiatek sweeping through the second set when saving a number of Break Points on her way to beating Claire Liu.

There is still room for improvement for the tournament returns, and hopefully that begins with a more positive start to Day 6 when the Third Round begins.


That Round begins on Friday and we have had more upsets with Jannik Sinner, a genuine contender, exiting the men's tournament and really opening up the bottom half of the draw. I have to say I was very impressed by Alexander Zverev on Thursday and through the first couple of Rounds and we may see him exorcise the mental demons of the bad injury suffered in Paris twelve months ago to go at least one step further and make the Final.

Plenty of work has to be done before the Finalists are confirmed in both Singles events being played in Paris as the players continue to deal with warm, but windy conditions.


Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: At first glance this looks like a really big spread for the World Number 1 and top Seed at the French Open to cover.

That is not a negative reflection on Carlos Alcaraz, but more to point out the talent that Denis Shapovalov has, even if the Canadian has had a tough couple of years which have seen him slip down the World Rankings. Two wins in the main draw at Roland Garros will make sure that Denis Shapovalov is Seeded at Wimbledon, where his game could be very dangerous, but the lack of time spent on the clay courts makes it hard to believe he can compete with the Spaniard in this Third Round match up.

Much will depend on how well Denis Shapovalov serves.

Despite his relatively poor record on the clay courts since the beginning of the 2022, Denis Shapovalov has managed to hold over 80% of his service games played. Right away that will make it very difficult to beat him by a big margin, but the return part of his tennis has not been up to the level that a top player would expect and that has built pressure on him.

Like many, the first serve is most effective, but the Shapovalov second serve can begin to crack under pressure and I do think a player like Carlos Alcaraz who has broken in 38% of return games on the clay courts prior to the French Open will be able to take advantage.

Over the last twelve months, Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas have both beaten Denis Shapovalov on this surface very comfortably and found the breaks needed, but this time the lefty is facing an even better player in Carlos Alcaraz.

A surprising dropped set in the Second Round will have just refocused Carlos Alcaraz who has won five of the seven sets played at the French Open by 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 scores. The serve is perhaps an under-rated part of the Carlos Alcaraz game on the clay courts and I do think he is going to be able put a statement win together by dismissing a tough challenger on his way into the second week.

A left handed player gave Carlos Alcaraz all sorts of problems at the French Open in 2022 and that was Albert Ramos rather than Rafael Nadal. However, Alcaraz has won twelve of his last thirteen matches against southpaws on the clay courts and has broken in 38% of return games played in those matches.

The expectation is that the Number 1 Seed can find the breaks in this one and he can pull away for a strong win over Denis Shapovalov who lost by a nine game margin to Holger Rune twelve months ago.


Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 games v Cameron Norrie: Wins over a couple of struggling Frenchmen has allowed Cameron Norrie to ease his way into the French Open, but the British Number 1 will know that there is a much tougher test in front of him in the Third Round. A place in the second week of the French Open for the first time is up for grabs for Cameron Norrie, who is looking to push into the top ten of the World Rankings, but his opponent has previous experience of doing that and is very, very comfortable on the clay courts.

While Cameron Norrie dropped a couple of sets in the First Round, Lorenzo Musetti has barely broken a sweat in winning both of his matches in straight sets.

His Second Round win over Alexander Shevchenko was incredibly one-sided and the young Italian is set for another move upwards in the World Ranking from his current career best Number 18. At 21 years old there is still some real room for improvement for Lorenzo Musetti and the most obvious place is with the serve, but he has shown he can compete with the best players on the Tour on the red dirt and we have yet to see the same from Cameron Norrie on any regularity.

Over the course of his career, Cameron Norrie only holds a 19-18 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts. He is 2-5 in that situation this season, although Norrie is a tough competitor and does hold one of those wins over Carlos Alcaraz, which always deserves respect.

Lorenzo Musetti has a 19-12 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay and I think that is a real credit to him as someone who is still building and improving on the Tour. He has a 4-3 mark against those opponents in 2023, including a win over Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo, and Musetti has an edge when it comes to the returning numbers compared with Cameron Norrie.

That was the case when these two met in Barcelona in April and it was Lorenzo Musetti's return game that came to the fore in the three set win over this opponent. It was a close match and Cameron Norrie will believe that it won't take a lot for things to turn his way, but I do think Musetti has the slight edge, which can pay dividends at the big moments.

Beating Cameron Norrie is never easy because he will not go away without putting in a full shift, but I do think his opponent will just find enough from his return game to ultimately win this one in four sets.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Diego Schwartzman: He is in danger of dropping out of the top 100 of the World Rankings after an incredibly difficult twelve months on the Tour, but Diego Schwartzman should always be respected on the clay courts.

Playing on the red dirt in 2023 has not been as positive an experience for Diego Schwartzman as he would have hoped and he came into the French Open with a really poor 2-11 record on the surface. Falling two sets down in the First Round looked to spell an early end to his time in Paris, but Diego Schwartzman bounced back to win in five sets and has won six sets in a row to reach the Third Round.

He is a three time former Quarter Finalist at the French Open, but Diego Schwartzman is defending a Fourth Round run from last year as he remains in danger of slipping out of the top 100. A tough career has put a lot of miles in the legs and that may be the reason for what has looked to be a rapid decline over the last year and Schwartzman is going to be a significant underdog in this Third Round match.

Prior to the French Open, Diego Schwartzman was only holding 59% of his service games played, which is a big drop from the 68% mark from last season. Making life even more difficult is the fact that the return game has dropped a few percentage points too and I do think Diego Schwartzman is going to find it tough to stay with Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is trying to fly under the radar.

The former Finalist in Paris, Stefanos Tsitsipas is in the same half of the draw as Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz and those two are clearly going to be making the headlines.

That won't be a big problem for Stefanos Tsitsipas who has dropped a single set in the tournament and who impressed in beating a clay court specialist like Roberto Carballas Baena in the last Round. The serve continues to be a big weapon for Tsitsipas and he has long enjoyed returning on the clay courts much more than he has on the other surfaces and that should show up in this match.

It has been a favourable match up for Stefanos Tsitsipas, although the Diego Schwartzman return in previous years has caused one or two problems for the Greek player. That has not been as clear on the clay courts where Stefanos Tsitsipas holds a 2-0 record over Diego Schwartzman having held 82% of his service games compared with 50% for the Argentinian player.

This gap could be there on Friday considering the form of the two players going into the French Open and I do think the 2021 French Open Runner Up will be able to move into the second week with a strong win under his belt.


Other Selections: This has been a tournament filled with upsets, but I largely think the higher Ranked men's players can get through their Third Round matches on Friday.

That includes Karen Khachanov, Andrey Rublev and Hubert Hurkacz who are all relatively small favourites compared with the three already mentioned in this thread.

I do think all three are more than capable of seeing off Thanasi Kokkinakis, Lorenzo Sonego and Juan Pablo Varillas in three or four sets.

Novak Djokovic is another who should win, but I do think Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can make a decent fist of things and that is firmly one to watch.

We have seen some upsets in the men's French Open, but the women's tournament has seen the Seeded players tumbling out of the second Slam of the season.

I am expecting Elina Svitolina and Daria Kasatkina to avoid joining the upset list, but Irina-Camelia Begu looks like a live underdog to me.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Irina-Camelia Begu @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 19-15, + 2.36 Units (68 Units Staked, + 3.47% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2023 (June 1st)

I did have Holger Rune down to cover in his Second Round match against Gael Monfils, but the veteran pulled out of the tournament with an injury just a day after his huge fightback against Sebastian Baez.

That can only be good news for Rune backers though with the Dane in the bottom half of the draw and not having to go through what could have been an emotionally draining match against an opponent who would have been firmly backed by the home crowd in the Night Session at Roland Garros. Instead Holger Rune can begin to prepare for his Third Round match and I do think he is going to be very difficult to beat at this tournament.

While he is resting, the remainder of the Second Round is set to be played in warm, windy conditions in Paris on Thursday.

I had a mixed Wednesday with a really poor start to the day looking like it was going to lead to a poor set of results.

Two players won sets 6-1, but failed to cover, and I did think it was going to be tough to come away with a winning return. However, the later matches largely went in my favour and only a poor third set from Andrey Rublev prevented the afternoon sweep from really pushing the numbers into a positive position early in the French Open.


Another really busy day is coming on Thursday with a huge amount of Second Round matches to get through. You can read my selections below as I look for a better return to really get this tournament moving in the direction I want, but we all have to understand it is a process and nothing will come quickly in a sport with such fine margins on any given day.


Casper Ruud - 7.5 games v Giulio Zeppieri: There are some five set matches that are very difficult to overcome in terms of the time and effort spent on the court, but Giulio Zeppieri was on the court for a relatively comfortable three hours seventeen minutes in his First Round win. It is an important one for the young Italian southpaw and one that could take him closer to his career best World Ranking mark, but the Second Round brings a huge step up in class.

The bottom half of the draw has already lost the World Number 2 Daniil Medvedev and both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are in the top half so every player in this section has to be feeling like a big opportunity is in front of them. Right at the head of the line will be Casper Ruud who finished Runner Up to Rafael Nadal here twelve months ago and has long been at his very best on the clay courts.

He had a comfortable First Round win over Elias Ymer and Casper Ruud is a big favourite against Giulio Zeppieri who has struggled in his career when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts. Credit has to be given to any player who has taken a set from Carlos Alcaraz as Zeppieri did in Umag last July, but the Italian was well beaten by Hubert Hurkacz at the French Open last year and he is not nearly as comfortable on the red dirt as Casper Ruud.

Giulio Zeppieri has a decent serve, but it is not one that is going to be massively concerning to Casper Ruud, even if the lefty approach is one that players have to get used to.

However, Casper Ruud is someone who seems to enjoy playing left handed players and has won thirteen of his last fourteen against southpaws on the clay courts with the exception being the loss to Rafael Nadal in the French Open Final last year. In all fourteen of those matches, Casper Ruud has held 86% of his service games and has broken in just shy of 29% of return games played, while those numbers move up to 89% and 34% when considering opponents that are Ranked outside of the top 50.

It should be noted that this has not been the clay court season that Casper Ruud would have expected from himself, and he has had some disappointing defeats which may play on the mind if this one is close.

That is a concern with a big mark to cover, but I do think Casper Ruud will largely control the match and Giulio Zeppieri is still learning when it comes to playing the very best players on the Tour. The Italian will make a set difficult, and perhaps even two sets, but Casper Ruud can take a significant chunk out of the handicap with one strong set and I do think he will be able to do that.

Giulio Zeppieri has been broken in 26% of the service games played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and has broken in 17% of return games. This will be a match where the experience of Ruud should be too much and I expect the Norwegian to continue his path towards the second week in Paris without too many issues.


Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Alex Molcan: Anyone who was tuning into the French Open Semi Final between Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev twelve months ago would have seen a very closely contested match in which the latter was looking the stronger player as they entered a second set tie-breaker.

You cannot say with any certainty as to how the match was going to play out, but it was sickening to see Alexander Zverev suffer an injury that cost him the remainder of the 2022 season. After a long lay-off, it is no surprise that the former World Number 2 has struggled to just regain his intensity on the court and another drop in the World Ranking is expected at the end of the French Open where he is defending significant points.

However, there have been one or two signs that the German is getting back on the right track and his form on the clay courts has been encouraging over the last couple of months. Of course Alexander Zverev expects to compete with the very best players on the Tour on this surface, but it will take a bit of time before he is winning those matches.

Overcoming the mental demons to win his First Round match in Paris will help and Alexander Zverev is a Seed in Roland Garros which means he can work his way into the tournament. A straight sets win over Lloyd Harris has given Zverev some time to just build a rhythm and it should be noted that Alexander Zverev has a very impressive 9-2 record when facing players Ranked outside of the top 20 on the red dirt this season.

He faces another of those in the Second Round when seeing Alex Molcan across the net and it has been a mixed year on the clay courts for the player who reached the Third Round at Roland Garros last year. In that Round, Alex Molcan was well beaten by Novak Djokovic and he has lost all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts in 2023 and without being able to get a foothold on the return of serve.

I think that is going to be the case in this Second Round match and that puts pressure on Alex Molcan to serve at a high level to try and remain competitive.

A straight sets win in the First Round will have given Molcan a boost in confidence, but this is a significant step up from Hugo Gaston and even Alexander Zverev in his current form should have too much for the Slovakian.


Iga Swiatek - 7.5 games v Claire Liu: Straight off the bat you have to say this is the kind of handicap mark that would take one or two mistakes from the favourite and become impossible to cover.

Throw in the additional factor of Iga Swiatek only just returning from an injury and it might make one or two nervy about backing her.

That was certainly the case in the First Round when the defending Champion was asked to cover a line which was one game higher than this one and it was far too big for me to consider. Iga Swiatek started slowly, which is perhaps not a surprise after having to retire mid-match in Rome, but by the end of the match the World Number 1 was rolling confidently through to the Second Round.

Now Iga Swiatek faces an opponent in Claire Liu who has not really had a lot of success on the clay courts and certainly not when playing a two time French Open Champion. While Claire Liu did pile up plenty of wins on the red dirt in 2021 and 2022, it should be noted that she is just 8-14 against top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface in her career and 3-6 when only focusing on top 50 Ranked opponents.

Her sole previous match against a top 20 Ranked opponent on a clay court ended in a defeat, while Claire Liu will have to deal with the memory of a painful experience against Iga Swiatek.

Earlier this season they met on the hard courts of Indian Wells, a surface that Claire Liu will enjoy more than the clay courts, and Iga Swiatek lost just a single game.

It is unlikely to be as routine as that, but Swiatek has been able to overwhelm opponents on this surface and the feeling is that she can restrict Liu to four games in this one.


Other Selections: Another busy day is on the cards and I will have a few thoughts on some of the other selections that I have made.

I am not always keen on backing players off the kind of upset that Thiago Seyboth Wild produced in the First Round, but he is a very strong clay court player and I do think he can back that up against the veteran Guido Pella. Both players needed five sets in the First Round, but Pella has been struggling to rediscover the consistency he once had and I do think Seyboth Wild is a progressing player, especially on the clay courts.

My expectation is that the likes of Borna Coric, Francisco Cerundolo and Andrea Vavassori can all progress in three or four sets in their Second Round matches, while Jannik Sinner has all of the qualities to make relatively straight-forward work of a dangerous Daniel Altmaier.

Nicolas Jarry has a poor return game, which makes him vulnerable, but I do think the clay court specialist can get the better of Tommy Paul who has not really been able to string the wins together on this surface.

The WTA matches have been harder to read in the early Rounds of the French Open, well as far as my Picks are concerned anyway, but I do think those I have selected have solid chances of progressing as favourites.

I was very close to adding young star Mirra Andreeva to my selections, but I think Diane Parry can show off her own potential and keep that one competitive in front of her home supporters. In saying that, I do think Andreeva is one of those players that could be a much bigger favourite in matches like this one as she builds her experience in the years ahead.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrea Vavassori - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thiago Seyboth Wild - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

French Open Update: 12-10, + 0.72 Units (44 Units Staked, + 1.64% Yield)

Wednesday, 31 May 2023

NBA PlayOffs 2023- NBA Finals Picks Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Games 1-7 (June 1-18)

It has been a really good NBA PlayOffs tournament with the first ever team coming through the Play In Tournament to reach the NBA Finals confirmed earlier this week when the Miami Heat just about held onto their emotions to record a seven game Eastern Conference Finals win over the Boston Celtics.

The Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference might be a surprise Finalist, but the Denver Nuggets have backed up their Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference to blitz past the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and then sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers to make a first appearance in the NBA Finals in franchise history.

Don't think for a moment that the players are happy with that alone as Denver look to go on and secure the NBA Championship over two weeks in June and the layers have set them as the strong favourites to do that.

No one should dismiss the chances of the Miami Heat who have beaten three higher Seeded opponents in their PlayOff run, which includes knocking off the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the East.

Jimmy Butler will always feel he is the best player on the court, but I think the majority may actually believe it is Nikola Jokic on the Denver roster that deserves that tag. Ultimately so much is going to come down to the role players in the NBA Finals as it always does and both teams have to be really happy with what they have seen from those around their superstars throughout the last couple of months.



NBA Finals 2023- Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Thursday 1st June
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: You have to admire the way both the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat have played in the NBA PlayOffs, but this may not have been the NBA Finals that the television networks would have hoped for and especially not considering the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics were Conference Final losers.

No one involved with the Nuggets or Heat are going to care about what the networks may have wanted and they will feel they are very much deserving of their position.

It is hard to make the case about anything else when it comes to the Denver Nuggets- they finished with the top Seed in the Western Conference and have crushed the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers for the loss of just three games. Finishing with the best record also means the Nuggets have earned home court advantage and there is absolutely no doubt that Denver is one of the best home advantages in the NBA.

The Nuggets play in an altitude that gives them a serious edge over any opponent heading to Mile High and that has been backed up with eight wins here in the post-season. Only the Memphis Grizzlies won more home games than Denver in the regular season, while it is almost impossible to ignore the fact that the Nuggets have been dominant here in the PlayOffs.

One concern has to be the fact that the Denver Nuggets have not played since May 22nd after sweeping their way past the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Being rested is clearly a good thing, but breaking rhythm for almost two weeks is perhaps not ideal at this time of the season.

In saying that, Denver must be much happier with their approach to the NBA Finals compared with the Miami Heat who have needed six games to beat the Milwaukee Bucks, six games to beat the New York Knicks and then blew a 3-0 lead and had to win a Game 7 on the road against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Ultimately they did avoid the historical collapse and that will have given the players some belief, but the Miami Heat have had little time between Monday and Thursday to get used to the conditions in Denver and that may play a part in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Jimmy Butler is the headline maker for Miami, but he will need Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent to produce the same standard that was set in the Eastern Conference Finals. It is Caleb Martin in particular who has been a huge player for the Heat and perhaps deserved the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, but the Nuggets are a much deeper team than the Boston Celtics and are unlikely to play as many poor Fourth Quarters as the Celtics managed to do.

The Miami three point shooting was firing in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Nuggets are a lengthy team that have managed to shut down the shooters and especially at home. Denver have held teams to just 32% from the three point range on their home court and I think that is going to be key to the NBA Finals, one that I expect the Denver Nuggets to win.

I think the Nuggets will get off to a strong start in Game 1 and I have mentioned in previous Rounds how difficult teams playing out of a Game 7 have found the first game of the next Series. The Boston Celtics failed to cover in the Conference Finals in such a position and I am going to back rest over rhythm in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, with the feeling being that Miami will struggle after the emotional investment to hold off the Boston rally a few days ago.

Big home favourites have been on a good run in the NBA Finals with those favoured by at least 4.5 points on a run of 18-8-1 against the spread in the last twenty-seven in that position. Favourites in general are 9-4 against the spread in the last thirteen NBA Finals games, while home teams are 7-2 against the spread in the last nine Game 1s played in the NBA Finals.

Those wins have tended to come by a double digit margin and I do think the Denver Nuggets can find enough from their three point shooters to ease past Miami.

The Heat have really struggled in recent visits to Denver with a 1-5 record against the spread in their last six here and I think the Nuggets make a big statement to open the NBA Finals in 2023.


Sunday 4th June
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: Game 1 is in the books and it ended with another strong Denver Nuggets win with their strong home court advantage and they are favourites to beat the Miami Heat when Game 2 is played on Sunday.

The final score does not really highlight the strong performance from the Nuggets, but Denver fans will know there is even more to come from their team. A strong three point shooting team only landed 30% of those shots in Game 1 and I do think that is partly down to the rhythm being broken from a long rest between Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals and the opening game of the NBA Finals.

Now they have had 48 minutes under their belts, I do think we will see an improvement from the Denver Nuggets from the three point range, while the Heat have to make adjustments to slow down the success Denver had from within the arc.

Other adjustments will also need to be made by the Heat after a disappointing effort in Game 1, but the team may feel they can be stronger with a few more days getting used to the altitude in Denver and with the Game 7 win over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals now almost a week ago.

Miami's big performer in the Eastern Conference Finals was Caleb Martin, but he struggled badly in the opening game of the NBA Finals. The Heat did have some good looks from the three point range, which is encouraging, but the 33% hit mark needs to be improved significantly if the Heat are going to drag these Finals back to 1-1 before heading home.

I do think both teams will be better Offensively in Game 2, but I think the depth of the Denver Nuggets is key to the Finals. I also believe they will show a lot better form from the three point range and that is going to help the home team cover in another winning effort in my opinion.

Game 2 home teams who are favoured are on a 5-1-1 run against the spread in the last seven NBA Finals played, while teams who shot at below 42% are just 5-13 against the spread in their next eighteen games in the Finals (Miami shot 41% in Game 1).

Once again it is a big spread and the Heat have constantly proved they can not only cover as a big underdog in these PlayOffs, but they can also win those games outright. However, I do think the Denver Nuggets are the toughest of the road tests they could have had and I think they will shoot a little more efficiently from three point range to cover again.


Wednesday 7th June
Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: Listening to Steve Kerr talk glowingly about the Miami Heat adjustments in Game 2 of the NBA Finals just backs up the feeling that the Heat have one of the all-time great Head Coaches at the helm. Erik Spoelstra has not always been given the credit he deserves, but winning another NBA Championship with this current group of Heat players will raise his stock significantly even if most involved in the NBA know how good his Coaching is already.

The Game 2 win saw the Miami Heat recover from yet another big deficit on the road in these PlayOffs and this has become a feature of the team. Undrafted players will be performing with a big chip on their shoulder and that has seen the Heat overcome some mighty odds already as they became the first team to win in Denver and take the NBA Finals back to South Florida with it all tied up.

Kevin Love coming into the starting line up changed things for Miami as they can now put Jimmy Butler next to Jamal Murray, but it should not be ignored that they needed a big Fourth Quarter and a night where they managed to nail 49% of their three pointers. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combined for 8/16 from the three point range and the likes of Love, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson all made big contributions, but backing up that kind of shooting will not be easy.

There will certainly have been a feeling in the Denver Nuggets locker room that they are as much to blame for the result as any Miami Heat adjustment. Head Coach Michael Malone let his feelings be known publicly as he called out the Nuggets players for a lack of effort at the beginning and in the Fourth Quarter when they allowed Miami to do whatever they wanted Offensively.

You have to feel that is going to light a fire inside the players, while Malone will also have to make some adjustments to just make things easier for Jamal Murray who struggled in Game 2. Being guarded by Jimmy Butler is tough, but Michael Porter Jr had a poor outing too and even then the Nuggets were only just beaten.

Nikola Jokic scored 41 points for the Nuggets in Game 2, but, amazingly, Denver have not won a PlayOff game in which he has scored at least 40 points. While Jokic will have his impact on games, the players around him have to make the big plays and I expect the Nuggets will have been looking through the game tape and will have a much more rounded effort, especially on the Defensive side of the court.

The Nuggets have not been as strong on the road during their PlayOffs run, but that is because they have been dominant at home before losing Game 2. However, they have won games in Minnesota, Phoenix and in Los Angeles against the Lakers and I do think we will see a better Denver team in Game 3 as they look to regain home court.

Game 2 winners have struggled to back that up in Game 3 in recent NBA Finals and those teams are 3-7 against the spread in the last ten Finals. The strong three point shooting from Miami in Game 2 might be seen as a huge positive, but backing that up is the challenge and teams who have shot at 47% or better from the three point range have produce a 4-12-1 record against the spread in their next seventeen games.

Overlooking the Miami Heat has been an expensive mistake for most in the off-season, but I do think they needed a lot to go their way in Game 2 which is going to be tough to replicate. The role players have continued to step up, but Michael Malone's call out should have just refocused the Denver Nuggets and I think they will be able to win this one on the road.


Friday 9th June
Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: Adjustments were made by the Miami Heat to take Game 2, but they were not able to replicate the strong three point shooting from that game when returning home. That proved to be too much to overcome for the Heat and they dropped Game 3 in a 15 point home defeat to give the Denver Nuggets home court advantage right back.

While the Heat have been moving things around, the Denver Nuggets looked to make more subtle changes to their approach in Game 3 compared with the losing effort in Game 2. On that day, Jamal Murray had been a little surprised by the approach Miami had taken to get him out of his rhythm, but he was much more prepared on South Beach and that meant a more aggressive role.

This time Jamal Murray was able to get into the paint and look for his own shots where they were available and he produced a triple-double, along with Nikola Jokic, to lead the way for the Nuggets.

Michael Malone will be expecting a backlash from the Miami Heat when Game 4 is played on Friday evening, but the Head Coach has to be much happier with the Defensive intensity that Denver showed. That was most evident with a dominant advantage on the boards, while the Miami role players were not able to get their three point shooting on track as highlighted by Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combining for just 2/10 from the three point mark and just 3/17 overall from the field.

While Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are going to make their impact, the Heat know it is the role players that will need to be most effective if they are going to upset the odds and win the NBA Championship.

I do expect the Heat to be better from the three point mark in this one, but it is a worry that two of the three games in the NBA Finals has seen them struggle. It feels like Miami have decided that they are going to need a heavy dose of three pointers to win these Finals and this is a make or miss League these days, even if the Denver Nuggets look more comfortable taking whatever the Heat are willing to give them.

Denver will know there is room for improvement from their side too- while Murray and Jokic dominated Game 3, Michael Porter Jr continues to struggle. There is a depth to the Nuggets roster that makes them dangerous and different bench players have stepped up to help out the two stars, but the Nuggets will hope that Porter Jr is able to find his Offensive groove, even if he is making an impact on the Defensive side of the court.

The short gap between Game 3 and Game 4 will make it tougher for these teams to make too many adjustments and there is every chance this is going to be another low scoring game.

As Michael Malone was heard saying before Game 3, Denver have largely dominated the first three games and only a massive Fourth Quarter from the Heat in Game 2 has helped them keep the NBA Finals competitive. They will need something like that on Friday and NBA Finals home underdogs have dropped to 1-6 against the spread in the last seven in this situation following Miami's home loss to the Denver Nuggets.

We haven't really seen the Nuggets get going from the three point range yet, but they have shown they can crash into the paint and find what they want Offensively. I think that will continue to be the case for the Nuggets and the more erratic Miami Heat need to be at their very best to keep up.

Even in Game 2 with the very high percentage of shots falling, Miami only just got over the line for the win and I will stick with the Denver Nuggets to put themselves on the hill for the NBA Championship with another road win.

They are known for their home advantage, but it should now be remembered that the Nuggets have won their last four road PlayOff games and I think they can get another on the board in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.


Monday 12th June
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: You have to credit Erik Spoelstra for making the adjustments that helped the Miami Heat steal Game 2 of the NBA Finals, but that was a game that the Denver Nuggets firmly believe they gave away. There has been no panic in the locker room and the Nuggets have just underlined their strength by producing back to back blowouts on the road to move into a commanding 3-1 lead in the Finals.

Only the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers have been able to overcome such a deficit and I think it is an extreme long shot for the Miami Heat to do the same. In fact, bringing the NBA Finals back to South Florida for a Game 6 would be a massive achievement as they once again head to Mile High City as a significant underdog.

The Game 2 win here saw the Heat recover from another double digit deficit in these PlayOffs, but it is tough to replicate how they managed to do that.

That was a day in which the Miami Heat hit 49% of their three pointers and made seventeen overall, but they have been restricted to 31% and 32% in Games 3 and 4 and have made just nineteen three pointers across those two home losses.

At this stage it is unlikely that the Miami Heat are going to change their approach too much, but they need someone to step up and take the pressure away from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus had a huge Game 2, but these two starters have combined for just 12 points in the last two games, while Caleb Martin has not been able to have the same impact on the NBA Finals as he did against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.

With an extra day of rest between Game 4 and Game 5, Spoelstra could make some changes to the starting five, but it is still a big ask for the Miami Heat. They almost need another performance like Game 2 to merely be competitive, but that is asking a lot from the role players and I do think the Denver Nuggets have gotten a complete control of these NBA Finals right now.

I do believe they have always been comfortable with the match up, and the Nuggets have shown they can win games in different ways. The Game 4 win was the first time they have really gotten the three pointers going and different players have come off the bench to produce for the team when they have been needed.

Jamal Murray did not have a very good game in terms of points scored, but continues to make a big impact for the Nuggets and has dished out double digit assists in all four NBA Finals games. Michael Porter Jr showed one or two signs that his shot might begin to fall, while Aaron Gordon had a huge Game 4 to continue his fine play on both ends of the court.

Momentum is with the Denver Nuggets now and I would be surprised if they allowed that to slip away in front of their home fans.

Teams playing after a double digit win have improved to 18-7-2 against the spread in the last twenty-seven NBA Finals games after Denver's win in Game 4, while teams playing after a double digit win are 8-2-1 against the spread in the last eleven when into a Game 5-7.

It is extremely unlikely that the Nuggets will shoot the three ball as well as they did in Game 4, but they have shown they can beat the Miami in a number of different ways. Outside of the Fourth Quarter collapse in Game 2, Denver have been strong winners in these NBA Finals game by game and I think they can be again.

MY PICKS: 01/06 Denver Nuggets - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
04/06 Denver Nuggets - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
07/06 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
09/06 Denver Nuggets - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
12/06 Denver Nuggets - 9 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NBA Finals Update: 3-1, + 1.73 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43.25% Yield)

Conference Finals: 2-8-1, - 6.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 56.18% Yield)
Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)
First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

PlayOffs 2023: 38-25-2, + 9.76 Units (65 Units Staked, + 15.02% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2023 (May 31st)

The second Grand Slam of the 2023 season might only have completed the First Round, but it has been a tournament filled with upsets as Seeds have fallen in both draws.

By far the biggest name exiting Paris at the first hurdle is World Number 2 and Rome Masters Champion Daniil Medvedev who was beaten in a fifth set for the ninth time in twelve matches that have gone the distance. After a strong run last season at the French Open and with the Rome title in his bag, so many expected big things from Medvedev with the draw opening up thanks to Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic both being placed in the other half of the tournament.

The exit will have stung, but Daniil Medvedev might be more confident now his season is moving onto the grass and with Wimbledon set to begin in just over a month from now.

Two other Seeded players in the top twenty have also exited the men's tournament, but the women's event has lost five of those players with Maria Sakkari, a former French Open Semi Finalist, Petra Kvitova and Belinda Bencic being the most popular of the names that have been beaten.


With the shocks going on throughout the event, it is perhaps not a surprise the early Picks have been a little up and down, although I am still not sure how Sebastian Baez blew a strong winning position against Gael Monfils on Tuesday evening.

It was an entertaining match filled with drama, but Baez looked to have broken Gael Monfils when leading 4-0 and having more Break Points in the Fifth Set after taking the Fourth Set 6-1. A loss of focus, or perhaps getting tight at the winning line, saw Sebastian Baez lose his way from that moment in the match and he was beaten, although I am still not quite sure if Gael Monfils will be ready to compete in two days time having looked like he had spent all he had on court.


On Wednesday the Second Round will begin at Roland Garros and it looks like being another very hot day for the players, although still windy.

This is going to be a testing day for the players heading out onto the courts, but the favourites will be looking to avoid some of the early obstacles they have faced. Leading contenders in both the men's and women's events are out on the show courts on Day 4 of the tournament and you have to imagine the Daniil Medvedev defeat may just have refocused those players to make sure they don't also make an early exit from the second Slam of the season.



Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Roberto Carballas Baena: The First Round match was perhaps tougher than would have been expected, but some of that was down to Stefanos Tsitsipas' own performance rather than anything Jiri Vesely brought onto the court. The former Runner Up at the French Open will know that he needs to be a little more ruthless when the Break Point chances come his way if he is going to have another deep run at Roland Garros, while this Second Round match should be more favourable for the return aspect of Stefanos Tsitsipas' game.

As comfortable as Roberto Carballas Baena is going to be on the red dirt and having only just reached his career best World Ranking last month, it is clear that the Spaniard is not really going to blitz through an opponent behind big serving. He works hard for his points and Carballas Baena is holding 76% of his service games played on the clay courts in 2023, although that number has dipped to 73% when considering his matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months.

Roberto Carballas Baena has lost all three matches played on the clay against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last year and he has struggled to be really competitive in those. The strong ability to perform on the surface has meant he has been able to win points behind both the first and second serve, which is going to be important, but the pressure of doing that over and over again has also meant having to deal with Break Points and eventually he has cracked.

One of the bigger concerns for Carballas Baena has been the struggles on the return when the level of opponent has increased and someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas is very strong on the serve. This is a player who has won almost 69% of his service points played on the clay in 2023 and that is a number that will exert plenty of scoreboard pressure on his opponent having seen those service numbers lead to holds in over 85% of service games played on the clay.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to win a Grand Slam because I truly believe his return is not quite up to the level of some of his main rivals, but he does tend to enjoy his best returns on the slower clay courts. He has broken in 26% of return games played on the surface in 2023 and I still think there is some room for improvement there at the French Open if he wants to go as deep into the tournament as some will expect.

In the sole meeting between these two on the professional Tour, Stefanos Tsitsipas was able to beat Roberto Carballas Baena back in 2018 in a match where he created more Break Points than his opponent.

Both are much improved since then, but I think the match up should still be on that Stefanos Tsitsipas enjoys and that should mean he is able to win and cover this big handicap mark on his way through to the Third Round.


Cameron Norrie - 5.5 games v Lucas Pouille: This is going to be the third time Lucas Pouille and Cameron Norrie are facing one another in a Grand Slam match with the Frenchman winning in Paris and the British player winning at Wimbledon.

They meet again at Roland Garros in the Second Round of the French Open and Lucas Pouille returns to a big stage having fought his way through the Qualifiers. It has been a very difficult time for the Frenchman who has admitted that he was suffering with his mental health and who has dropped as far as Number 675 in the World Rankings.

He looks to be in a better space these days, but Lucas Pouille has been lacking competitive tennis and that has perhaps contributed to his inconsistent form. Former Grand Slam Champions like Dominic Thiem, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka will be the first to tell you how tall the mountain is to climb after injury sets them back and Lucas Pouille has to be respected as a former top ten Ranked player.

I think Lucas Pouille will take some positives from the fact he has beaten Cameron Norrie here before in 2018, although there is no doubt that Norrie has shown how much he has improved by dismissing Pouille easily enough at Wimbledon in 2021. He is a comfortable clay courter these days and Cameron Norrie won't be affected by the crowd getting into the match having needed all five sets to beat Benoit Paire in the First Round.

Cameron Norrie will be the first to admit that he was perhaps distracted in the middle of the match before rallying for the win, but I think that will just focus him for this match.

Serving better than he did in the First Round will be important for Cameron Norrie to just keep the pressure on Lucas Pouille and the momentum is with the higher Ranked player after really controlling the last two sets in the win over Benoit Paire. In those his serve looked to finally have gotten some rhythm and I do think Cameron Norrie is going to have too much for Lucas Pouille who has yet to play anyone Ranked inside the top 100 on the clay courts in 2023.

In fact Lucas Pouille has not played anyone Ranked inside the top 100 since May 2022 and I do think that becomes a factor in this match.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 6.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 6-5, + 0.20 Units (22 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Tuesday, 30 May 2023

French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2023 (May 30th)

A long weekend means I can only add my selections for the matches to come on Day 3 at the French Open.

I should have longer thoughts on some of the Picks from Day 4 going forward and I will also update the First Round totals in that thread.


MY PICKS: Francisco Cerundolo - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sebastian Baez - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Monday, 29 May 2023

French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2023 (May 29th)

Sunday is going to be a long day so I am going to begin this thread with some of the selections from the early matches that are set to be played on Day 2 at the French Open.

Any additional selections will be added on Monday morning, while the Day 3 Picks post should be up at the end of play on Monday evening.


MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)