NBA PlayOffs 2023- NBA Finals Picks Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Games 1-7 (June 1-18)

It has been a really good NBA PlayOffs tournament with the first ever team coming through the Play In Tournament to reach the NBA Finals confirmed earlier this week when the Miami Heat just about held onto their emotions to record a seven game Eastern Conference Finals win over the Boston Celtics.

The Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference might be a surprise Finalist, but the Denver Nuggets have backed up their Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference to blitz past the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and then sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers to make a first appearance in the NBA Finals in franchise history.

Don't think for a moment that the players are happy with that alone as Denver look to go on and secure the NBA Championship over two weeks in June and the layers have set them as the strong favourites to do that.

No one should dismiss the chances of the Miami Heat who have beaten three higher Seeded opponents in their PlayOff run, which includes knocking off the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the East.

Jimmy Butler will always feel he is the best player on the court, but I think the majority may actually believe it is Nikola Jokic on the Denver roster that deserves that tag. Ultimately so much is going to come down to the role players in the NBA Finals as it always does and both teams have to be really happy with what they have seen from those around their superstars throughout the last couple of months.

NBA Finals 2023- Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Thursday 1st June

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: You have to admire the way both the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat have played in the NBA PlayOffs, but this may not have been the NBA Finals that the television networks would have hoped for and especially not considering the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics were Conference Final losers.

No one involved with the Nuggets or Heat are going to care about what the networks may have wanted and they will feel they are very much deserving of their position.

It is hard to make the case about anything else when it comes to the Denver Nuggets- they finished with the top Seed in the Western Conference and have crushed the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers for the loss of just three games. Finishing with the best record also means the Nuggets have earned home court advantage and there is absolutely no doubt that Denver is one of the best home advantages in the NBA.

The Nuggets play in an altitude that gives them a serious edge over any opponent heading to Mile High and that has been backed up with eight wins here in the post-season. Only the Memphis Grizzlies won more home games than Denver in the regular season, while it is almost impossible to ignore the fact that the Nuggets have been dominant here in the PlayOffs.

One concern has to be the fact that the Denver Nuggets have not played since May 22nd after sweeping their way past the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Being rested is clearly a good thing, but breaking rhythm for almost two weeks is perhaps not ideal at this time of the season.

In saying that, Denver must be much happier with their approach to the NBA Finals compared with the Miami Heat who have needed six games to beat the Milwaukee Bucks, six games to beat the New York Knicks and then blew a 3-0 lead and had to win a Game 7 on the road against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Ultimately they did avoid the historical collapse and that will have given the players some belief, but the Miami Heat have had little time between Monday and Thursday to get used to the conditions in Denver and that may play a part in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Jimmy Butler is the headline maker for Miami, but he will need Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent to produce the same standard that was set in the Eastern Conference Finals. It is Caleb Martin in particular who has been a huge player for the Heat and perhaps deserved the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, but the Nuggets are a much deeper team than the Boston Celtics and are unlikely to play as many poor Fourth Quarters as the Celtics managed to do.

The Miami three point shooting was firing in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Nuggets are a lengthy team that have managed to shut down the shooters and especially at home. Denver have held teams to just 32% from the three point range on their home court and I think that is going to be key to the NBA Finals, one that I expect the Denver Nuggets to win.

I think the Nuggets will get off to a strong start in Game 1 and I have mentioned in previous Rounds how difficult teams playing out of a Game 7 have found the first game of the next Series. The Boston Celtics failed to cover in the Conference Finals in such a position and I am going to back rest over rhythm in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, with the feeling being that Miami will struggle after the emotional investment to hold off the Boston rally a few days ago.

Big home favourites have been on a good run in the NBA Finals with those favoured by at least 4.5 points on a run of 18-8-1 against the spread in the last twenty-seven in that position. Favourites in general are 9-4 against the spread in the last thirteen NBA Finals games, while home teams are 7-2 against the spread in the last nine Game 1s played in the NBA Finals.

Those wins have tended to come by a double digit margin and I do think the Denver Nuggets can find enough from their three point shooters to ease past Miami.

The Heat have really struggled in recent visits to Denver with a 1-5 record against the spread in their last six here and I think the Nuggets make a big statement to open the NBA Finals in 2023.

Sunday 4th June

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: Game 1 is in the books and it ended with another strong Denver Nuggets win with their strong home court advantage and they are favourites to beat the Miami Heat when Game 2 is played on Sunday.

The final score does not really highlight the strong performance from the Nuggets, but Denver fans will know there is even more to come from their team. A strong three point shooting team only landed 30% of those shots in Game 1 and I do think that is partly down to the rhythm being broken from a long rest between Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals and the opening game of the NBA Finals.

Now they have had 48 minutes under their belts, I do think we will see an improvement from the Denver Nuggets from the three point range, while the Heat have to make adjustments to slow down the success Denver had from within the arc.

Other adjustments will also need to be made by the Heat after a disappointing effort in Game 1, but the team may feel they can be stronger with a few more days getting used to the altitude in Denver and with the Game 7 win over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals now almost a week ago.

Miami's big performer in the Eastern Conference Finals was Caleb Martin, but he struggled badly in the opening game of the NBA Finals. The Heat did have some good looks from the three point range, which is encouraging, but the 33% hit mark needs to be improved significantly if the Heat are going to drag these Finals back to 1-1 before heading home.

I do think both teams will be better Offensively in Game 2, but I think the depth of the Denver Nuggets is key to the Finals. I also believe they will show a lot better form from the three point range and that is going to help the home team cover in another winning effort in my opinion.

Game 2 home teams who are favoured are on a 5-1-1 run against the spread in the last seven NBA Finals played, while teams who shot at below 42% are just 5-13 against the spread in their next eighteen games in the Finals (Miami shot 41% in Game 1).

Once again it is a big spread and the Heat have constantly proved they can not only cover as a big underdog in these PlayOffs, but they can also win those games outright. However, I do think the Denver Nuggets are the toughest of the road tests they could have had and I think they will shoot a little more efficiently from three point range to cover again.

Wednesday 7th June

Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: Listening to Steve Kerr talk glowingly about the Miami Heat adjustments in Game 2 of the NBA Finals just backs up the feeling that the Heat have one of the all-time great Head Coaches at the helm. Erik Spoelstra has not always been given the credit he deserves, but winning another NBA Championship with this current group of Heat players will raise his stock significantly even if most involved in the NBA know how good his Coaching is already.

The Game 2 win saw the Miami Heat recover from yet another big deficit on the road in these PlayOffs and this has become a feature of the team. Undrafted players will be performing with a big chip on their shoulder and that has seen the Heat overcome some mighty odds already as they became the first team to win in Denver and take the NBA Finals back to South Florida with it all tied up.

Kevin Love coming into the starting line up changed things for Miami as they can now put Jimmy Butler next to Jamal Murray, but it should not be ignored that they needed a big Fourth Quarter and a night where they managed to nail 49% of their three pointers. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combined for 8/16 from the three point range and the likes of Love, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson all made big contributions, but backing up that kind of shooting will not be easy.

There will certainly have been a feeling in the Denver Nuggets locker room that they are as much to blame for the result as any Miami Heat adjustment. Head Coach Michael Malone let his feelings be known publicly as he called out the Nuggets players for a lack of effort at the beginning and in the Fourth Quarter when they allowed Miami to do whatever they wanted Offensively.

You have to feel that is going to light a fire inside the players, while Malone will also have to make some adjustments to just make things easier for Jamal Murray who struggled in Game 2. Being guarded by Jimmy Butler is tough, but Michael Porter Jr had a poor outing too and even then the Nuggets were only just beaten.

Nikola Jokic scored 41 points for the Nuggets in Game 2, but, amazingly, Denver have not won a PlayOff game in which he has scored at least 40 points. While Jokic will have his impact on games, the players around him have to make the big plays and I expect the Nuggets will have been looking through the game tape and will have a much more rounded effort, especially on the Defensive side of the court.

The Nuggets have not been as strong on the road during their PlayOffs run, but that is because they have been dominant at home before losing Game 2. However, they have won games in Minnesota, Phoenix and in Los Angeles against the Lakers and I do think we will see a better Denver team in Game 3 as they look to regain home court.

Game 2 winners have struggled to back that up in Game 3 in recent NBA Finals and those teams are 3-7 against the spread in the last ten Finals. The strong three point shooting from Miami in Game 2 might be seen as a huge positive, but backing that up is the challenge and teams who have shot at 47% or better from the three point range have produce a 4-12-1 record against the spread in their next seventeen games.

Overlooking the Miami Heat has been an expensive mistake for most in the off-season, but I do think they needed a lot to go their way in Game 2 which is going to be tough to replicate. The role players have continued to step up, but Michael Malone's call out should have just refocused the Denver Nuggets and I think they will be able to win this one on the road.

Friday 9th June

Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: Adjustments were made by the Miami Heat to take Game 2, but they were not able to replicate the strong three point shooting from that game when returning home. That proved to be too much to overcome for the Heat and they dropped Game 3 in a 15 point home defeat to give the Denver Nuggets home court advantage right back.

While the Heat have been moving things around, the Denver Nuggets looked to make more subtle changes to their approach in Game 3 compared with the losing effort in Game 2. On that day, Jamal Murray had been a little surprised by the approach Miami had taken to get him out of his rhythm, but he was much more prepared on South Beach and that meant a more aggressive role.

This time Jamal Murray was able to get into the paint and look for his own shots where they were available and he produced a triple-double, along with Nikola Jokic, to lead the way for the Nuggets.

Michael Malone will be expecting a backlash from the Miami Heat when Game 4 is played on Friday evening, but the Head Coach has to be much happier with the Defensive intensity that Denver showed. That was most evident with a dominant advantage on the boards, while the Miami role players were not able to get their three point shooting on track as highlighted by Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combining for just 2/10 from the three point mark and just 3/17 overall from the field.

While Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are going to make their impact, the Heat know it is the role players that will need to be most effective if they are going to upset the odds and win the NBA Championship.

I do expect the Heat to be better from the three point mark in this one, but it is a worry that two of the three games in the NBA Finals has seen them struggle. It feels like Miami have decided that they are going to need a heavy dose of three pointers to win these Finals and this is a make or miss League these days, even if the Denver Nuggets look more comfortable taking whatever the Heat are willing to give them.

Denver will know there is room for improvement from their side too- while Murray and Jokic dominated Game 3, Michael Porter Jr continues to struggle. There is a depth to the Nuggets roster that makes them dangerous and different bench players have stepped up to help out the two stars, but the Nuggets will hope that Porter Jr is able to find his Offensive groove, even if he is making an impact on the Defensive side of the court.

The short gap between Game 3 and Game 4 will make it tougher for these teams to make too many adjustments and there is every chance this is going to be another low scoring game.

As Michael Malone was heard saying before Game 3, Denver have largely dominated the first three games and only a massive Fourth Quarter from the Heat in Game 2 has helped them keep the NBA Finals competitive. They will need something like that on Friday and NBA Finals home underdogs have dropped to 1-6 against the spread in the last seven in this situation following Miami's home loss to the Denver Nuggets.

We haven't really seen the Nuggets get going from the three point range yet, but they have shown they can crash into the paint and find what they want Offensively. I think that will continue to be the case for the Nuggets and the more erratic Miami Heat need to be at their very best to keep up.

Even in Game 2 with the very high percentage of shots falling, Miami only just got over the line for the win and I will stick with the Denver Nuggets to put themselves on the hill for the NBA Championship with another road win.

They are known for their home advantage, but it should now be remembered that the Nuggets have won their last four road PlayOff games and I think they can get another on the board in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

Monday 12th June

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: You have to credit Erik Spoelstra for making the adjustments that helped the Miami Heat steal Game 2 of the NBA Finals, but that was a game that the Denver Nuggets firmly believe they gave away. There has been no panic in the locker room and the Nuggets have just underlined their strength by producing back to back blowouts on the road to move into a commanding 3-1 lead in the Finals.

Only the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers have been able to overcome such a deficit and I think it is an extreme long shot for the Miami Heat to do the same. In fact, bringing the NBA Finals back to South Florida for a Game 6 would be a massive achievement as they once again head to Mile High City as a significant underdog.

The Game 2 win here saw the Heat recover from another double digit deficit in these PlayOffs, but it is tough to replicate how they managed to do that.

That was a day in which the Miami Heat hit 49% of their three pointers and made seventeen overall, but they have been restricted to 31% and 32% in Games 3 and 4 and have made just nineteen three pointers across those two home losses.

At this stage it is unlikely that the Miami Heat are going to change their approach too much, but they need someone to step up and take the pressure away from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus had a huge Game 2, but these two starters have combined for just 12 points in the last two games, while Caleb Martin has not been able to have the same impact on the NBA Finals as he did against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.

With an extra day of rest between Game 4 and Game 5, Spoelstra could make some changes to the starting five, but it is still a big ask for the Miami Heat. They almost need another performance like Game 2 to merely be competitive, but that is asking a lot from the role players and I do think the Denver Nuggets have gotten a complete control of these NBA Finals right now.

I do believe they have always been comfortable with the match up, and the Nuggets have shown they can win games in different ways. The Game 4 win was the first time they have really gotten the three pointers going and different players have come off the bench to produce for the team when they have been needed.

Jamal Murray did not have a very good game in terms of points scored, but continues to make a big impact for the Nuggets and has dished out double digit assists in all four NBA Finals games. Michael Porter Jr showed one or two signs that his shot might begin to fall, while Aaron Gordon had a huge Game 4 to continue his fine play on both ends of the court.

Momentum is with the Denver Nuggets now and I would be surprised if they allowed that to slip away in front of their home fans.

Teams playing after a double digit win have improved to 18-7-2 against the spread in the last twenty-seven NBA Finals games after Denver's win in Game 4, while teams playing after a double digit win are 8-2-1 against the spread in the last eleven when into a Game 5-7.

It is extremely unlikely that the Nuggets will shoot the three ball as well as they did in Game 4, but they have shown they can beat the Miami in a number of different ways. Outside of the Fourth Quarter collapse in Game 2, Denver have been strong winners in these NBA Finals game by game and I think they can be again.

MY PICKS: 01/06 Denver Nuggets - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

04/06 Denver Nuggets - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

07/06 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

09/06 Denver Nuggets - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

12/06 Denver Nuggets - 9 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NBA Finals Update: 3-1, + 1.73 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43.25% Yield)

Conference Finals: 2-8-1, - 6.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 56.18% Yield)

Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

PlayOffs 2023: 38-25-2, + 9.76 Units (65 Units Staked, + 15.02% Yield)

NBA Finals 2017- Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers (June 1-18)

NBA Finals 2017

Before the season began, most would have been anticipating a third NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors and that is exactly where we have ended up after a long season.

Both teams have been dominant through the Play Offs with just one Play Off defeat combined, but that hasn't stopped the overriding perception being that the Warriors are a big favourite to win their second Championship in three seasons.

I have to say that I have been leaning the same way, although ruling out LeBron James is never an easy decision. There are some mental scars for the Warriors to try and overcome too after the collapse in the Finals in 2016, but Kevin Durant has fitted in seamlessly and there should be too much shooting in the Golden State rotation at the start of this series.

Thursday 1st June

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: The expected NBA Finals of 2017 is going to take place beginning with Game 1 on Thursday 1st June. Most NBA fans might have been disillusioned with the way the Play Offs have gone in general with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors blowing past their opponents for the loss of one game, but that doesn't mean we are all not expecting another fascinating duel between these teams.

It is the third season in a row the Warriors and Cavaliers will be competing for the NBA Championship and it is the series that both teams would have wanted. Anything else and they may have felt their successes could be tarnished, but the two best teams in the NBA are back in the Finals where they belong.

Have no doubt that there are some mental scars for the Warriors from 2016 when they blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals with two of those defeats coming at home. They were reminded of their disastrous collapse everywhere they looked and you can imagine the likes of Draymond Green are desperate to right a perceived wrong.

Bringing in Kevin Durant has been a huge boost for the Warriors and I think he has shown why most experts have him down as a stronger player than Stephen Curry and perhaps the closest player to the talents of LeBron James. That is going to be a fascinating duel between Durant and James who get on off the court, but regularly have feisty affairs against one another on the court.

There are some very similar numbers produced by the teams overall over the course of the season and I think the rebounding battle will be important with both showing energy around the boards. The difference may be the more efficient shooting of the Golden State Warriors who also look to have the stronger Defensive rotations.

I expect that to show up in Game 1 despite the fact both teams are off a long break having completed Conference Finals wins very easily. That might break the rhythm Defensively, but I don't think there will be struggles Offensively and I would give the Warriors the edge in this one and do expect them to cover the number.

The favourite has actually gone 11-1 against the spread in Game 1 of the last twelve NBA Finals. The Warriors have covered in the last two opening NBA Finals games against the Cleveland Cavaliers and while playing on a rest has not been good for Golden State, I expect them to ride the emotion of the Oracle Arena to win this game and cover the spread to open the NBA Finals.

Sunday 4th June
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: The NBA Finals got underway a few days ago and the two competing teams will both believe there is work to do from Game 1. That might be a surprise when you consider the blow out win for the Golden State Warriors and the expectation they would want to pick up from where they left off, but this is a team who have high standards of themselves.

Despite all of the positives of their performance, particularly on the Defensive side of the court, the Warriors were not happy with their shooting. They missed a lot of open shots considering they scored 113 points and the feeling was that the Warriors could have made it a much easier day in the office if they had been shooting better.

The lay off between the Conference Finals and the start of the NBA Finals might have contributed to that, but Kevin Durant and Steph Curry were not affected and both had huge games. Durant in particular showed why the Golden State Warriors signed him last summer with a 38 point effort that came alongside zero turnovers.

While the Golden State Warriors are talking about areas to improve, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a lot more 'obvious' corrections to make from Game 1. The team really struggled dealing with the Defensive moves the Warriors made which contributed to a really poor percentage from the field, and they didn't get a lot of help for LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.

Another big issue were the number of Offensive rebounds they allowed in Game 1 and Golden State were able to take advantage of the second chance opportunities that broke down the Cleveland Defense. Another problem from the Defensive side of the court was the anticipation to close out shooters which allowed the Warriors to get some really easy baskets in the paint.

Picking a winner on the spread is difficult because Game 2 underdogs have tended to show their teeth, going 7-2 against the spread in the last nine Game 2's in the NBA Finals. With the expected improvement from the Cavaliers, I imagine they will have plenty of backers, but the Warriors are very good at home and I am actually leaning towards them despite having an extra couple of points to cover from Game 1.

I do think Cleveland will be more competitive, but I also think the Warriors will show more efficiency shooting the ball. It was Golden State who covered in Game 2 last season in another rout and the feeling is that the Warriors will show too much at both ends of the court to pull away from the Cavaliers again.

You don't feel good opposing LeBron James, but it's easier to feel comfortable with the likes of Kevin Durant and Steph Curry being backed. I will look for the home team to secure a double digit win for 2-0 in the series.

Wednesday 7th June
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Pick: What can the Cleveland Cavaliers do to turn around what is beginning to look like a really one-sided series? There will be those who will point out that Cleveland were 0-2 down to the Golden State Warriors last season too, as well as the famous recovery from 1-3 down in the NBA Finals, but this feels much different from twelve months ago.

There are plenty of fans who suggested Steph Curry was the best player in the world when the Warriors were leading 3-1 last year and looking to be on the road to back to back NBA Championships. However most real NBA fans would have recognised that LeBron James has held that title and he underlined his status by dragging the Cavaliers back for the win.

Most would have also had Kevin Durant very high on any top five list of the best current active players at that time, but Durant's influence on the first two games had Paul Pierce suggesting he is the best player in the world now. Durant is certainly right there behind James for me and his arrival at the Golden State Warriors makes it much harder to see this current rotation of players blowing this lead.

The Cavaliers got a triple double from LeBron James and continue to get points out of Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving while also earned a huge number of turnovers in Game 2. However the bottom line is they still lost 19 points and closing that gap looks much more difficult with the addition of Durant to a strong Warriors team.

You can see how irritated the Cavaliers have been with James not happy with questions he has been posed and the frustration that the veterans of the bench have not been able to contribute as Cleveland would have liked. The Cavaliers are trying their best to find the right Defensive formulas to try and limit what the Warriors are doing, but there look to be too many options when it comes to shooting as well as the speed that the older Cleveland players are struggling to stay with.

Being back at home for Game 3 is important for the Cavaliers who responded as a narrow underdog twelve months ago to take this game. The Cavaliers blew out Golden State by 30 points as complacency set in for the road team, but I don't think a team who has won all fourteen Play Off games will do the same having remembered the pain of blowing the NBA Finals in the manner they did in 2016.

Opposing LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers as a home underdog is tough. Have no doubt the players are likely to be inspired to prove they are still very much alive in the NBA Finals and they will know that most people are ruling them out and suggesting the broomsticks will be needed later this week.

I expect that is going to see the Cavaliers produce an even bigger effort, but I am not sure they have the talent or energy to really stick with Golden State. Ultimately it feels like the Cavaliers need the Warriors to have a bad game to get into this series and Golden State have been playing at a level where they don't look like they are in a mood to drop their standards at all.

The Warriors have covered in all six road games they have played in the NBA Play Offs this season and it is too hard to oppose what is looking like clearly the best team in the whole League. Backing against the Cleveland Cavaliers as an underdog is actually 12-5 against the spread this season and I am looking for the Warriors to move into a 3-0 lead and look to become the first team to potentially win all 16 Play Off games in a single post-season soon afterwards.

Friday 9th June
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Pick: The last two seasons have seen the Cleveland Cavaliers respond with a win over the Golden State Warriors in Game 3, but they fell down in the final minutes in 2017 to drop into a 0-3 hole. Now LeBron James is on the brink of being swept in the NBA Finals for the second time in his career and the Golden State Warriors are on the brink of history as they look to sweep the entire Play Offs.

To blame James or to put the sweep on his shoulders is not really apt for this case as Cleveland would be nowhere without his presence. It was another big game from James who was backed up by Kyrie Irving impressively in Game 3, but his minutes have begun to wear down James and that came to fruition at the end of the last game.

Steve Kerr was imploring to his Warriors that the Cavaliers would get tired and his words came true in heartbreaking fashion for the home team. Now they have to try and dig out of a 0-3 hole against a team who will be desperate to sweep away the memories of the collapse in the NBA Finals and the oddsmakers have begun to believe that is going to be the case.

The spread has actually moved up 3 points from Game 3 to Game 4 as there is perhaps a belief that the Cavaliers have suffered an emotional blow that they simply can't pick themselves up from. The tiredness won't be helped by the fact that we have so little time between Game 3 and Game 4 and I actually think the adjustments have now been made by the teams and there won't be much changes in that limited time.

It is actually the lack of time between games that is helping me in deciding how to play Game 4.

As much as it is a danger to go against two of the best shooting teams in the NBA, I think the fatigue in the Cleveland side may mean this is a game that does not surpass the total like the last two have. The referees seemed to be fairly loose with the foul calls they made in Game 3 and that could be a problem if it happens again in Game 4, but I do think Cleveland need to make this a grind it out game if they are going to force a Game 5 at the Oracle Arena.

I do think the Cavaliers will struggle with their shooting under the fatigue they will be feeling despite the fact they will be desperate to avoid the sweep at home. The loss in Game 3 was a real blow to them and the energy levels in the whole Arena may be far below where Cleveland would want them to be and I can see the Golden State Warriors looking to show off their superior Defensive play.

The Warriors three point shooting is a danger to any total when they get going in the way they can, but I am going to back the under in Game 4 and look for a slower game from the Cavaliers to contribute to that.

Monday 12th June
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: There will be some painful memories brought up for the Golden State Warriors at the end of Game 4 and they will have had two days to try and put those to the back of the mind. Many NBA fans would have been revisiting the memes that came out of the NBA Finals in 2016 after the Golden State Warriors blew a 3-1 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers and they are back in the same position in 2017.

The players are less concerned with the scoreline than the fans may be as they have pointed out that this year the Warriors had a 3-0 lead rather than winning Game 4 like they did in 2016.

However it does make Game 5 a really important one for the Warriors as I really do think the mental stresses on the players will increase tenfold if they have to go back to Cleveland for a Game 6 showdown.

There were some things that happened in Game 4 that Golden State will believe were 'one off' occasions rather than something that is a deeper concern for them. The Cavaliers are a very good shooting team, but the Warriors will believe they won't allow them to get as hot from the three point range as they were in Game 4 and that can be a key reason which helps the home team overcome them in this one.

The Warriors have to be happy with the way they have continued to shoot the ball and they will feel they can bounce back with a much better Defensive effort than they showed in Game 4. Being back at home is a huge for Golden State even if two of their four losses in the NBA Finals in 2016 came at the Oracle Arena, but there is a different feel about this team.

The public looks to be behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game 5, especially when you look at the spread. I am not so sure that this Warriors team is going to fall away in the same manner as they did in 2016 and I am looking for Golden State to have more energy on the Defensive side of the court which will continue to see them open up the shooting lanes on the Offensive side.

It did take a really special three point shooting day from the Cavaliers to see them come through in Game 4, but I am not anticipating them to be able to shoot that efficiently again. The Golden State Warriors have a much better Defensive organisation than they showed in Game 4 and I will look for them to record another big home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as they secure a second title in three years.

MY NBA FINALS PICKS: 01/06 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
04/06 Golden State Warriors - 9 Points @ 2.00 Betway (1 Unit)
07/06 Golden State Warriors - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
09/06 Cleveland Cavaliers-Golden State Warriors Under 228.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
12/06 Golden State Warriors - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

NBA Finals Update: 4-1, + 2.77 Units