Wednesday could not have gone any worse for the Tennis Picks and it has made this a very poor week overall.
The season totals have been given a big dent too by the poor week, but I have been disappointed with the very little luck that has been on my side.
Every player on Wednesday started well but just could not take the opportunities they were creating which is frustrating to say the least.
On Thursday I do have some selections, but I need to have more luck to make sure the day is nothing like as poor as Wednesday turned out to be.
MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Qiang Wang - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-10, - 12.98 Units (28 Units Staked, - 46.36% Yield)
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Wednesday, 26 September 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (September 26th)
The week has been a tough one to this point, but the Tennis continues on Wednesday as we move onto the next Round in the tournaments being played this week.
As with the first couple of days, I am going to place the Picks alone in this thread as I battle 'man flu'.
Manchester United's performance in the League Cup has hardly helped either, but my Picks from the Tennis to be played on Wednesday can be seen below.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-6, - 4.98 Units (20 Units Staked, - 24.90% Yield)
As with the first couple of days, I am going to place the Picks alone in this thread as I battle 'man flu'.
Manchester United's performance in the League Cup has hardly helped either, but my Picks from the Tennis to be played on Wednesday can be seen below.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-6, - 4.98 Units (20 Units Staked, - 24.90% Yield)
Tuesday, 25 September 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (September 25th)
Monday proved to be a mixed day for the Tennis Picks, but it could have been a lot worse than it turned out even if I did end with a losing record for the day.
The first couple of days of a new tournament can see the matches spread out, but Tuesday is a very busy day this week with a host of matches scheduled in the WTA Wuhan tournament as well as the other three events being played this week.
I have been able to run through the matches at the tournaments this week and come up with a number of selections from the Tuesday offering. You can see those in the 'MY PICKS' section below as I look to get on a roll and back into a positive position after what has been a disappointing ten days following a strong US Open return.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.18 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
The first couple of days of a new tournament can see the matches spread out, but Tuesday is a very busy day this week with a host of matches scheduled in the WTA Wuhan tournament as well as the other three events being played this week.
I have been able to run through the matches at the tournaments this week and come up with a number of selections from the Tuesday offering. You can see those in the 'MY PICKS' section below as I look to get on a roll and back into a positive position after what has been a disappointing ten days following a strong US Open return.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.18 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Monday, 24 September 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (September 24th)
Last week was a pretty tough one for the Tennis Picks, but the season results are still in good shape going into the final two months of the 2018 Tour.
There are a number of tournaments beginning on Monday this week too, although the biggest event looks to be the WTA Wuhan event. On Monday my Tennis Picks are focusing on that event and you can see the selections I have made below.
I should be creating fuller threads for the Tennis Picks through the rest of the week, but for Monday it is the selections only being posted.
MY PICKS: Bernarda Pera - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Season 2018: + 27.18 Units (1499 Units Staked, + 1.81% Yield)
There are a number of tournaments beginning on Monday this week too, although the biggest event looks to be the WTA Wuhan event. On Monday my Tennis Picks are focusing on that event and you can see the selections I have made below.
I should be creating fuller threads for the Tennis Picks through the rest of the week, but for Monday it is the selections only being posted.
MY PICKS: Bernarda Pera - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Season 2018: + 27.18 Units (1499 Units Staked, + 1.81% Yield)
Sunday, 23 September 2018
NFL Week 3 Picks 2018 (September 20-24)
I really didn't think I could have had a better Week 2 than Week 1 from the NFL Picks made, but it turned out I can with the record last week being 6-1 compared with 6-2 from Week 1.
That means a really strong start to the 2018 NFL season is in the books, although I can't afford to be looking too far ahead when it comes to how the rest of the season pans out. Instead this is a very good start and something to build on in the weeks ahead.
I didn't have a pick from Thursday Night Football so this thread is being posted on Sunday with the NFL Picks coming from the remaining two days of Week 3.
Let's get to it.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: These two teams come into Week 3 in contrasting moods after both played Divisional games in Week 2. The Cincinnati Bengals have had a few more days to prepare after beating the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, while the Carolina Panthers were beaten by NFC South rivals the Atlanta Falcons.
Non-Conference games are clearly not as important as Conference and Divisional games, but the Bengals and Panthers know they are playing in tough Divisions and every game should mean plenty to them. That is especially the case for the Panthers who won't want to drop to 1-2 after losing in Week 2 and I do think they are capable of bouncing back.
Injuries are hurting the Cincinnati Bengals and even the additional days to prepare for this one might not be enough. They have lost key players on both sides of the ball and Joe Mixon has been ruled out for up to a month which will mean the Running Back position is stretched.
The Bengals have started well Offensively though which means they should give Carolina some problems. Running the ball has been effective, but the loss of Mixon may hit the Bengals there and this Carolina Defensive unit will be looking to prove they are much better than what they displayed last week in the loss at the Atlanta Falcons.
Carolina have to look to get some pressure on Andy Dalton at Quarter Back and I expect they will have some success doing that. Stopping AJ Green and Giovani Bernard coming out of the backfield will be more difficult for Carolina and gives Dalton a chance to make some solid plays, while the Bengals should be able to have some success running the ball even without Mixon which gives them a chance for the upset.
The same can be said for Carolina when it comes to moving the ball with Cam Newton in good form and helping paper over the cracks they have on the Offensive Line. Newton is being aided by Norv Turner at Offensive Co-Ordinator and the Panthers are very happy with their Quarter Back, but Newton will need his legs and awareness to be on point as he is going to see his Offensive Line struggle to cope with the Bengals Defensive Line.
A key for Newton is going to be employing Christian McCaffrey in the passing game as he did against the Atlanta Falcons. Short, quick passes may just slow down the pass rush and McCaffrey is a very dangerous player out in the open spaces, while any slowing down of the pass rush may give Newton the time to make plays down the field against a Cincinnati Secondary which has struggled.
Establishing the run is the starting point for the Carolina Panthers and that won't be easy this week. So far the Bengals have been stout on the Defensive Line, but this is the best rushing team they would have faced and I think the Panthers will be able to get more joy up front than others have against the Bengals.
We have already seen two ties in the NFL this season and the last time these teams met ended in a tie too. I don't think that will be the case this time and I like the Panthers to cover the spread in a home win as they recover from the defeat in Week 2.
Injuries are really hurting the Bengals and they have actually lost the yardage battle in both of their opening two games. If Cam Newton and the Panthers look after the ball I think they will be strong enough on both sides of the ball to beat the Bengals and the Panthers are also 4-0 against the spread in their last four games off a defeat.
It will be close but I think Carolina are going to be good enough to win this game and also cover the number.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Both the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens could easily have different records going into Week 3 if things had gone even slightly differently in Week 2. However it is the Broncos who rallied to beat the Oakland Raiders and move to 2-0 while the Ravens were beaten on Thursday Night Football and head into Week 3 with a 1-1 record.
The spot is a difficult one for both teams as the meat in the Divisional game sandwich they are involved in. Those Divisional games are clearly very important for these teams in the tough AFC North and West Divisions in which they operate, but neither will accept dropping what could be an important tie-breaker when it comes to potential Wild Card spots later in the season.
Injuries are a big part of the NFL and both Denver and Baltimore are dealing with key players suffering through Week 2. Case Keenum is the Quarter Back for the Denver Broncos after being signed off a strong season with the Minnesota Vikings and he was held out of practice on Wednesday with a bad knee, but is expected to go.
On the other hand CJ Mosley is looking like he won't be at 100% for the Baltimore Ravens with his status Questionable and that could be a huge blow to the Defensive unit without their 'Quarter Back' of that unit.
That has to be an area Denver look to expose although there has been some tough learning moments for the Offensive unit. Keenum knows he has to play better, but he could be well supported by a strong running game that has looked like it could be a key to the Broncos in the season ahead.
Phillip Lindsay is a rookie Running Back who looks to have taken the main role in the backfield after a strong performance in Week 2. While the Broncos will try to challenge the Baltimore Defensive Line that has played well, Lindsay is also going to be a key coming out of the backfield especially if Mosley is not on the field.
It should open things up for Keenum and will also be key to protect the Quarter Back whose Offensive Line is going to be missing one starter. The Ravens can get some real pressure up front and they have had a Secondary playing pretty well, but Keenum has strong Receivers who can win their battles on the outside if they are fully focused.
The real key to the outcome of this game could come on the other side of the ball as Joe Flacco looks to help the Ravens bounce back from their Week 2 loss in Cincinnati. Flacco looks to be more engaged in everything since Lamar Jackson was Drafted by the Ravens as their Quarter Back of the future, but this is a tough Defensive unit the Quarter Back is facing.
Flacco can't expect to get a lot of help from the running game against this Denver Defensive Line and that puts more pressure on him when it comes to protecting their Quarter Back. So far the Offensive Line has had its problems and Denver have a pass rush that has to be respected and I fully expect the Broncos to put a lot of pressure on Flacco throughout this game.
There are some holes in the Secondary which can be exposed, but Flacco might not always have the time to get to his Receivers down the field and I like the Broncos with a number of points behind them. The whole feel of this game looks a close one and so getting six points looks like too many for the underdog to be in receipt of.
Keenum has to avoid the turnovers which have blighted him in the first couple of weeks of the season, but even with that in mind I think the Denver Broncos are getting too many points here.
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Jon Gruden era has not begun as the Oakland Raiders would have hoped with a 0-2 record and the decision to trade Khalil Mack looking more and more baffling in each passing week. It is a ten year contract the new Head Coach has signed, but I am not convinced the Raiders were expecting a transitional season out of the gate.
To give Oakland their dues they have not played badly in either of their last couple of games but perhaps just ran out of gas towards the end of those games. A Divisional loss to the Denver Broncos in the manner it came is a huge blow the mentality of the team and Oakland face a tough game in hot conditions in an early Eastern Time slot.
They are also facing a confident Miami Dolphins team who have opened the season 2-0 even though they lost the yardage battle by over 100 yards in the win at the New York Jets last Sunday. Not many Miami fans were expecting to see the team getting close to the Play Off picture, but now the Dolphins lead the AFC East and optimism around the whole team will be improving.
Adam Gase continues to get the most out of Ryan Tannehill who has returned from the lost 2017 season in decent shape at Quarter Back. He is not being asked to do too much and that may be the case again in Week 3 as the Offensive Line looks to help the Dolphins become a power rushing team.
Miami should find some real holes up front against the Oakland Raiders who have allowed 5.7 yards per carry through the first couple of weeks of the season. This could be a break out game for the Dolphins who have run the ball well enough through the first two games and being able to do that will open things up for Ryan Tannehill in play-action.
Tannehill has felt the pressure up front, but the established run and this Oakland lack of pass rush may mean he has more breathing room in Week 3. So far the Quarter Back has looked after the ball well enough and the short, quick passes mixed in with some deep shots to Kenny Stills should see Miami move the ball with more consistency than they did in the Week 2 win at the Jets.
Running the ball has been a problem for the Oakland Raiders despite having Marshawn Lynch in the backfield and that is likely to be the case in Week 3 too. It means there is more pressure on Derek Carr at Quarter Back and there are some serious questions being asked of him and whether he is going to get back to the kind of high level he once displayed in the NFL.
Carr is someone who does get the ball out of his hands very quickly and Oakland have some Receivers who are capable of making big plays against a vulnerable Miami Secondary. However it can be tough to do that consistently from third and long situations and Carr has shown he is not too far away from throwing a bad ball that can be picked off.
The Dolphins successes through the first couple of weeks of the season have been aided massively by an ability to turn the ball over and that may be the situation again in this one. I can see Miami putting Derek Carr in pressurised spots to make plays down the field and that is where they can produce a turnover or two that helps them edge out their visitors.
It has been hot and humid in Miami which could see Oakland struggle to maintain their standards through the second half. They have started well in both games in 2018 but then faded in the second half anyway and that could be the problem much earlier in the heat of the middle of the day in Miami.
One concern is that Miami have been a poor home favourite to back over the years and this is the first game they would have gone into as favourites this season. That changes the mentality of the players and they have struggled under the expectation of being favoured, but I like Miami matching up with Oakland and think the conditions in South Florida helps them get the better of an opponent playing back to back road games.
Oakland are off a really disappointing Divisional loss too and I will back the home team to win and cover.
San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Even the biggest Patrick Mahomes fan in the world has to be surprised with how well the Quarter Back has played in his first two weeks as the new Kansas City Chiefs starter. Andy Reid may not be surprised considering he made the decision to trade away Alex Smith and turn over his team to Mahomes.
It has paid off so far as Kansas City opened the season 2-0 with road wins at quality opponents Los Angeles Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now Mahomes will get the chance to play in front of the raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd and the Chiefs are a big favourite to see off the San Francisco 49ers who have an up and coming Quarter Back of their own in Jimmy Garoppolo.
The experience edge goes to Garoppolo and I think the Quarter Back can have a big performance against a Chiefs Defensive unit whose cracks have been papered up by the stunning performances Mahomes has been producing. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 508 total yards per game over the first couple of weeks of the season and the 49ers are good enough Offensively to move the chains with success throughout the game.
There is a real balance to the way San Francisco play and they should be able to establish the run in this one which will mean keeping Mahomes on the sidelines for as long as possible too. While there have been some Offensive Line issues in terms of pass protection, Kansas City have not been able to exert a lot of pressure up front and running the ball effectively should mean San Francisco are able to give Garoppolo time from play-action spots.
Against a Secondary which has allowed 430 passing yards per game and missing Eric Berry, I think Garoppolo is going to be able to make some big plays down the field and give the 49ers every chance to earn the cover.
It is hard to go against Mahomes considering how well he has played over the first two games, but the Quarter Back won't have it as comfortable as he did against the Steelers last week. The 49ers have been far from a great Defensive unit, but they have a returning Reuben Foster this week to bolster their strength and they are a team that can at least study the film and give Mahomes a different look.
Like the 49ers, Kansas City have been well supported by a decent run game which has opened things up for Mahomes down the field. I expect the Quarter Back to have another strong day, but he could be put under a little more pressure by a solid San Francisco pass rush and that can at least see the visitors force some punts and Field Goal attempts.
The spot might not be the best one for Kansas City with this non-Conference game taking place between two big road games. While I do think they are the more likely winners at home, this is a lot of points and San Francisco may do enough to keep it close.
MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 6 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 6.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 1 Point @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)
That means a really strong start to the 2018 NFL season is in the books, although I can't afford to be looking too far ahead when it comes to how the rest of the season pans out. Instead this is a very good start and something to build on in the weeks ahead.
I didn't have a pick from Thursday Night Football so this thread is being posted on Sunday with the NFL Picks coming from the remaining two days of Week 3.
Let's get to it.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: These two teams come into Week 3 in contrasting moods after both played Divisional games in Week 2. The Cincinnati Bengals have had a few more days to prepare after beating the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, while the Carolina Panthers were beaten by NFC South rivals the Atlanta Falcons.
Non-Conference games are clearly not as important as Conference and Divisional games, but the Bengals and Panthers know they are playing in tough Divisions and every game should mean plenty to them. That is especially the case for the Panthers who won't want to drop to 1-2 after losing in Week 2 and I do think they are capable of bouncing back.
Injuries are hurting the Cincinnati Bengals and even the additional days to prepare for this one might not be enough. They have lost key players on both sides of the ball and Joe Mixon has been ruled out for up to a month which will mean the Running Back position is stretched.
The Bengals have started well Offensively though which means they should give Carolina some problems. Running the ball has been effective, but the loss of Mixon may hit the Bengals there and this Carolina Defensive unit will be looking to prove they are much better than what they displayed last week in the loss at the Atlanta Falcons.
Carolina have to look to get some pressure on Andy Dalton at Quarter Back and I expect they will have some success doing that. Stopping AJ Green and Giovani Bernard coming out of the backfield will be more difficult for Carolina and gives Dalton a chance to make some solid plays, while the Bengals should be able to have some success running the ball even without Mixon which gives them a chance for the upset.
The same can be said for Carolina when it comes to moving the ball with Cam Newton in good form and helping paper over the cracks they have on the Offensive Line. Newton is being aided by Norv Turner at Offensive Co-Ordinator and the Panthers are very happy with their Quarter Back, but Newton will need his legs and awareness to be on point as he is going to see his Offensive Line struggle to cope with the Bengals Defensive Line.
A key for Newton is going to be employing Christian McCaffrey in the passing game as he did against the Atlanta Falcons. Short, quick passes may just slow down the pass rush and McCaffrey is a very dangerous player out in the open spaces, while any slowing down of the pass rush may give Newton the time to make plays down the field against a Cincinnati Secondary which has struggled.
Establishing the run is the starting point for the Carolina Panthers and that won't be easy this week. So far the Bengals have been stout on the Defensive Line, but this is the best rushing team they would have faced and I think the Panthers will be able to get more joy up front than others have against the Bengals.
We have already seen two ties in the NFL this season and the last time these teams met ended in a tie too. I don't think that will be the case this time and I like the Panthers to cover the spread in a home win as they recover from the defeat in Week 2.
Injuries are really hurting the Bengals and they have actually lost the yardage battle in both of their opening two games. If Cam Newton and the Panthers look after the ball I think they will be strong enough on both sides of the ball to beat the Bengals and the Panthers are also 4-0 against the spread in their last four games off a defeat.
It will be close but I think Carolina are going to be good enough to win this game and also cover the number.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Both the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens could easily have different records going into Week 3 if things had gone even slightly differently in Week 2. However it is the Broncos who rallied to beat the Oakland Raiders and move to 2-0 while the Ravens were beaten on Thursday Night Football and head into Week 3 with a 1-1 record.
The spot is a difficult one for both teams as the meat in the Divisional game sandwich they are involved in. Those Divisional games are clearly very important for these teams in the tough AFC North and West Divisions in which they operate, but neither will accept dropping what could be an important tie-breaker when it comes to potential Wild Card spots later in the season.
Injuries are a big part of the NFL and both Denver and Baltimore are dealing with key players suffering through Week 2. Case Keenum is the Quarter Back for the Denver Broncos after being signed off a strong season with the Minnesota Vikings and he was held out of practice on Wednesday with a bad knee, but is expected to go.
On the other hand CJ Mosley is looking like he won't be at 100% for the Baltimore Ravens with his status Questionable and that could be a huge blow to the Defensive unit without their 'Quarter Back' of that unit.
That has to be an area Denver look to expose although there has been some tough learning moments for the Offensive unit. Keenum knows he has to play better, but he could be well supported by a strong running game that has looked like it could be a key to the Broncos in the season ahead.
Phillip Lindsay is a rookie Running Back who looks to have taken the main role in the backfield after a strong performance in Week 2. While the Broncos will try to challenge the Baltimore Defensive Line that has played well, Lindsay is also going to be a key coming out of the backfield especially if Mosley is not on the field.
It should open things up for Keenum and will also be key to protect the Quarter Back whose Offensive Line is going to be missing one starter. The Ravens can get some real pressure up front and they have had a Secondary playing pretty well, but Keenum has strong Receivers who can win their battles on the outside if they are fully focused.
The real key to the outcome of this game could come on the other side of the ball as Joe Flacco looks to help the Ravens bounce back from their Week 2 loss in Cincinnati. Flacco looks to be more engaged in everything since Lamar Jackson was Drafted by the Ravens as their Quarter Back of the future, but this is a tough Defensive unit the Quarter Back is facing.
Flacco can't expect to get a lot of help from the running game against this Denver Defensive Line and that puts more pressure on him when it comes to protecting their Quarter Back. So far the Offensive Line has had its problems and Denver have a pass rush that has to be respected and I fully expect the Broncos to put a lot of pressure on Flacco throughout this game.
There are some holes in the Secondary which can be exposed, but Flacco might not always have the time to get to his Receivers down the field and I like the Broncos with a number of points behind them. The whole feel of this game looks a close one and so getting six points looks like too many for the underdog to be in receipt of.
Keenum has to avoid the turnovers which have blighted him in the first couple of weeks of the season, but even with that in mind I think the Denver Broncos are getting too many points here.
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Jon Gruden era has not begun as the Oakland Raiders would have hoped with a 0-2 record and the decision to trade Khalil Mack looking more and more baffling in each passing week. It is a ten year contract the new Head Coach has signed, but I am not convinced the Raiders were expecting a transitional season out of the gate.
To give Oakland their dues they have not played badly in either of their last couple of games but perhaps just ran out of gas towards the end of those games. A Divisional loss to the Denver Broncos in the manner it came is a huge blow the mentality of the team and Oakland face a tough game in hot conditions in an early Eastern Time slot.
They are also facing a confident Miami Dolphins team who have opened the season 2-0 even though they lost the yardage battle by over 100 yards in the win at the New York Jets last Sunday. Not many Miami fans were expecting to see the team getting close to the Play Off picture, but now the Dolphins lead the AFC East and optimism around the whole team will be improving.
Adam Gase continues to get the most out of Ryan Tannehill who has returned from the lost 2017 season in decent shape at Quarter Back. He is not being asked to do too much and that may be the case again in Week 3 as the Offensive Line looks to help the Dolphins become a power rushing team.
Miami should find some real holes up front against the Oakland Raiders who have allowed 5.7 yards per carry through the first couple of weeks of the season. This could be a break out game for the Dolphins who have run the ball well enough through the first two games and being able to do that will open things up for Ryan Tannehill in play-action.
Tannehill has felt the pressure up front, but the established run and this Oakland lack of pass rush may mean he has more breathing room in Week 3. So far the Quarter Back has looked after the ball well enough and the short, quick passes mixed in with some deep shots to Kenny Stills should see Miami move the ball with more consistency than they did in the Week 2 win at the Jets.
Running the ball has been a problem for the Oakland Raiders despite having Marshawn Lynch in the backfield and that is likely to be the case in Week 3 too. It means there is more pressure on Derek Carr at Quarter Back and there are some serious questions being asked of him and whether he is going to get back to the kind of high level he once displayed in the NFL.
Carr is someone who does get the ball out of his hands very quickly and Oakland have some Receivers who are capable of making big plays against a vulnerable Miami Secondary. However it can be tough to do that consistently from third and long situations and Carr has shown he is not too far away from throwing a bad ball that can be picked off.
The Dolphins successes through the first couple of weeks of the season have been aided massively by an ability to turn the ball over and that may be the situation again in this one. I can see Miami putting Derek Carr in pressurised spots to make plays down the field and that is where they can produce a turnover or two that helps them edge out their visitors.
It has been hot and humid in Miami which could see Oakland struggle to maintain their standards through the second half. They have started well in both games in 2018 but then faded in the second half anyway and that could be the problem much earlier in the heat of the middle of the day in Miami.
One concern is that Miami have been a poor home favourite to back over the years and this is the first game they would have gone into as favourites this season. That changes the mentality of the players and they have struggled under the expectation of being favoured, but I like Miami matching up with Oakland and think the conditions in South Florida helps them get the better of an opponent playing back to back road games.
Oakland are off a really disappointing Divisional loss too and I will back the home team to win and cover.
San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Even the biggest Patrick Mahomes fan in the world has to be surprised with how well the Quarter Back has played in his first two weeks as the new Kansas City Chiefs starter. Andy Reid may not be surprised considering he made the decision to trade away Alex Smith and turn over his team to Mahomes.
It has paid off so far as Kansas City opened the season 2-0 with road wins at quality opponents Los Angeles Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now Mahomes will get the chance to play in front of the raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd and the Chiefs are a big favourite to see off the San Francisco 49ers who have an up and coming Quarter Back of their own in Jimmy Garoppolo.
The experience edge goes to Garoppolo and I think the Quarter Back can have a big performance against a Chiefs Defensive unit whose cracks have been papered up by the stunning performances Mahomes has been producing. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 508 total yards per game over the first couple of weeks of the season and the 49ers are good enough Offensively to move the chains with success throughout the game.
There is a real balance to the way San Francisco play and they should be able to establish the run in this one which will mean keeping Mahomes on the sidelines for as long as possible too. While there have been some Offensive Line issues in terms of pass protection, Kansas City have not been able to exert a lot of pressure up front and running the ball effectively should mean San Francisco are able to give Garoppolo time from play-action spots.
Against a Secondary which has allowed 430 passing yards per game and missing Eric Berry, I think Garoppolo is going to be able to make some big plays down the field and give the 49ers every chance to earn the cover.
It is hard to go against Mahomes considering how well he has played over the first two games, but the Quarter Back won't have it as comfortable as he did against the Steelers last week. The 49ers have been far from a great Defensive unit, but they have a returning Reuben Foster this week to bolster their strength and they are a team that can at least study the film and give Mahomes a different look.
Like the 49ers, Kansas City have been well supported by a decent run game which has opened things up for Mahomes down the field. I expect the Quarter Back to have another strong day, but he could be put under a little more pressure by a solid San Francisco pass rush and that can at least see the visitors force some punts and Field Goal attempts.
The spot might not be the best one for Kansas City with this non-Conference game taking place between two big road games. While I do think they are the more likely winners at home, this is a lot of points and San Francisco may do enough to keep it close.
MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 6 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 6.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 1 Point @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)
Saturday, 22 September 2018
Boxing Picks 2018- Anthony Joshua vs Alexander Povetkin (September 22nd)
The rematch between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin wasn't mired in anything like the same level of controversy as the first fight, but I can understand why so many thought the former Middleweight King deserved to have his hand raised in the fight. I liked how Golovkin ended the fight but I felt he had started slowly and actually scored the fight 114-114 in the knowledge there were one or two Rounds that could easily have been scored the other way as to how I had it.
With that in mind I can make a case for either fighter winning and the 'A' side earning a narrow decision is not a big surprise when the Rounds were as subjective as some of them were.
I would be very surprised if we don't see a third fight between the pair, but Golovkin's best days are behind him and another seven/eight months out of the ring only add to the age factor which means I would favour Alvarez to do enough to perhaps even take a Unanimous Decision next time.
This weekend a big British Heavyweight will be defending his belt in a dangerous fight, but one that has not captured the imagination of the fans. Anthony Joshua's mood has been darker than usual from what I have seen and he won't be much happier on Saturday.
That is because the Tyson Fury-Deontay Wilder fight moved a step closer with all rumours that a Saturday 1st December date has been agreed and the press conferences will begin a week on Monday. Everyone is going to be talking about that rather than Joshua and I think Alexander Povetkin may take the punishment from the release of Joshua's frustrations in the main event.
It is an event that doesn't inspire much excitement on the undercard either and there won't be a lot of surprise that the Stadium is going to be nowhere near a sell out.
With that in mind I can make a case for either fighter winning and the 'A' side earning a narrow decision is not a big surprise when the Rounds were as subjective as some of them were.
I would be very surprised if we don't see a third fight between the pair, but Golovkin's best days are behind him and another seven/eight months out of the ring only add to the age factor which means I would favour Alvarez to do enough to perhaps even take a Unanimous Decision next time.
This weekend a big British Heavyweight will be defending his belt in a dangerous fight, but one that has not captured the imagination of the fans. Anthony Joshua's mood has been darker than usual from what I have seen and he won't be much happier on Saturday.
That is because the Tyson Fury-Deontay Wilder fight moved a step closer with all rumours that a Saturday 1st December date has been agreed and the press conferences will begin a week on Monday. Everyone is going to be talking about that rather than Joshua and I think Alexander Povetkin may take the punishment from the release of Joshua's frustrations in the main event.
It is an event that doesn't inspire much excitement on the undercard either and there won't be a lot of surprise that the Stadium is going to be nowhere near a sell out.
Sergey Kuzmin vs David Price
It was literally a day after I had read an article where David Price said he would not be taking this fight that I saw Matchroom had announced it for the undercard. I am sure Price is going to be well paid for the fight, but he had made it clear in that interview that it was too much of a risk and he wanted to rebuild a little more carefully after the defeat to Alexander Povetkin back in March.
I do think Price has misunderstood people's concern for him from the Povetkin Knock Out.
The shot he took was absolutely brutal and yet another highlight reel Knock Out Price has had against him in his career, but I do respect the way he tried to fight fire with fire and even put Povetkin down in the Third Round. However I respect most who get in the ring and are willing to go out on their shield to secure what they feel is a legacy for them.
In this case I think Price is taking an unnecessary risk against a power punching Russian who may be limited but who has shown he can Knock Out opponents. Sergey Kuzmin will know Price is a dangerous hitter for a Round or two, but Kuzmin will also believe he has the superior tank and he will have seen Povetkin beat Price and be given a chance to have a shot at Anthony Joshua.
It is very unlikely to be the exact same price for Kuzmin but he can announce himself to the UK fans and build towards that title shot he would want. I think in this one he is going to weather the initial Price storm and eventually get hold of the Liverpudlian when the tank runs out of gas as has been the case for Price throughout his career.
There have been a couple of early stoppages on the Price record, but he did last at least Five Rounds against Tony Thompson in the rematch, Christian Hammer in a Seventh Round defeat and against Povetkin in March when beaten in the Fifth Round.
Kuzmin has yet to have a fight of this magnitude in his professional career, but he has shown to be a hard hitter and also had shown his strength in the amateur ranks. I think he will have to be careful early, but eventually Price is going to start getting caught with heavy shots and I will look for Kuzmin to end this in either the Fifth or Sixth Round.
Matty Askin vs Lawrence Okolie
This looks like the best of the undercard fights with two boxers in very strong form meeting one another for the British Cruiserweight Title.
Both Matty Askin and Lawrence Okolie could find themselves moving onto World level with a victory so there is plenty on the line in the fight.
Okolie is the only unbeaten fighter, but that won't worry Askin who has beaten unbeaten fighters in recent bouts to build his own momentum. He has the size to at least match up with Okolie who is used to bullying his opponents in the ring, while Askin also has a lot of experience which may see him make the right adjustments to win this fight.
That makes it a fascinating one and I do think it is going to be very close and that makes the Askin price a big one. You have to believe the judges will favour Okolie if this goes to the cards and is a close fight, but Askin is capable of turning on the pressure and forcing a stoppage if he needs it and I expect him to give Okolie the sternest test of his career.
At the prices Askin is worth a small interest to upset Okolie who I am still not completely convinced by as a future world level star like some of the hype suggests. I could be wrong and a dominant win for Okolie would make me a believer, but I will look for experience to win the day.
Luke Campbell vs Yvan Mendy
This has been billed with a revenge or repeat tagline as Luke Campbell looks to avenge the first defeat of his career when facing Yvan Mendy again.
Mendy comes in with some confidence with the win over Campbell, but he has also won ten straight fights and the talk has been impressive.
However I have to say Campbell is much improved since the defeat to Mendy and he has been in with quality opponents like Jorge Linares and been far from disgraced. That is a step above the level of Mendy and I think Campbell will be able to box smarter and not suffer the Knock Down which effectively cost him the first fight with Mendy.
No will doubt the toughness of Mendy so seeing Campbell stop him would be a real statement from the British fighter as he moves back towards a World Title shot. It is that shot which makes me think Campbell won't take any unnecessary risks by chasing the stoppage and I believe he will show his improvement against the 33 year old Mendy.
Mendy has not really beaten anyone of note since the win over Campbell and I will back the latter to earn revenge with a points victory.
Anthony Joshua vs Alexander Povetkin
Everyone is suggesting Anthony Joshua doesn't care about what his Heavyweight rivals are doing, notably Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder, but a darkening mood won't have lightened when he hears the news their fight is set to be announced.
Joshua will be trying to take back some of the headlines by becoming the second man to beat Alexander Povetkin and I would be surprised if he is not able to do that for at least a couple of days.
The Russian looks to have seen his better days and Povetkin was hurt quite badly in his last fight with David Price. No one is dismissing the power Price can hit with, but I do think Povetkin is on the way down in his career and I am not convinced there is a lot in the tank.
When he was beaten by Wladimir Klitschko it was a one-sided affair and I think Anthony Joshua is going to control the distance in the first half of the fight and look to take something from the Povetkin gas tank. It is in the second half of the fight when I expect Joshua will plant his feet and let his hands go a little more and that is when I am anticipating a stoppage for the British star.
Taking risks early may not be on the mind for Joshua knowing how hard Povetkin can hit, but I expect him to break down this opponent like Klitschko did. The difference will be that Povetkin is a lot closer to 40 years old now and I don't believe he will have the same resistance he did then as Anthony Joshua becomes the first man to stop Povetkin.
It may even be a slightly controversial one with the referee stepping in at some point in the second half of the fight, but I will back Anthony Joshua to win after weather any early storm Povetkin tries to bring.
MY PICKS: Sergey Kuzmin to Win Between 5-6 @ 6.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Matty Askin @ 3.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Luke Campbell to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anthony Joshua to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Boxing 2018 Update: 25-45, + 9 Units (107 Units Staked, + 8.41% Yield)
Friday, 21 September 2018
Weekend Football Picks 2018 (September 22-23)
There will be a slight change to the Weekend Football Picks thread from next when I will pick some Fantasy Players from each match with one Goalkeeper/Defender, Midfielder and Attacking option picked from each match.
Sometimes it will be an obvious choice, but I will work on the best way to approach the change to the thread so it will be a work in progress.
September has been a mixed month for the Football Picks after another up and down week, but there are still a couple of weeks left to help produce a strong winning record to back up the opening salvo in August.
Hopefully that begins this weekend with the Premier League fixtures being played on Saturday and Sunday.
Fulham v Watford Pick: The opening game of the Premier League weekend sees Fulham and Watford both looking to bounce back from defeats last time out. Both teams were beaten by opponents from Manchester in games they would have been set as the underdog, but both clubs will be looking at this fixture as a much more winnable one.
It has been a great start to the season for Watford who won their first 5 games in all competitions but I do wonder if the defeat to Manchester United has dented their confidence. They have to be respected for some of the strong performances they have put in though and Watford have shown they are a team that can create chances which will make them dangerous.
Fulham have not made as positive an impression on the League table as Watford, but they have shown there is enough in the squad to avoid an immediate return to the Championship. However there has to be a slight worry with the amount of chances Fulham have allowed opponents to create against them in their opening League games.
It is a part of the style of play that Fulham employ with an attacking mindset meaning they are leaving more gaps in the back than they would like. Even in the home win over Burnley, Fulham took their chances but gave up some good opportunities for their visitors and this is a team that looks like they could be involved in some really high scoring games until the mentality changes.
I would be surprised if that changes this weekend as Fulham look for the three points in front of their own fans. They should cause Watford some real problems when they get forward, but Fulham have also allowed their last couple of opponents to create a host of great chances against them.
They won't be the only one to do that when facing Manchester City away from home, but Brighton were another who created a lot of chances against Fulham. Burnley did the same at Craven Cottage and I think this fixture has all the makings of producing at least three goals shared out with plenty of attacking intent on display.
Burnley v Bournemouth Pick: There was a real feeling that there would be some type of regression from Burnley in the new season after a very special 2017/18 season, but there will be some real worries that they could drop significantly from the 7th place finish they had.
The poor start has followed on from a poor end to last season and Burnley have lost 4 of their last 5 Premier League games at Turf Moor which is a real concern. They have not defended anything like the level they were producing twelve months ago and Burnley have found it tough to create significant chances for their strikers which has all come together to see them sit at the bottom of the Premier League table.
At the start of the season they may have circled a home game with Bournemouth as a good chance to bounce back from a poor run, but the visitors have been in fine form to open the season. Even in their 2-0 defeat at Chelsea The Cherries created some good chances and the performances so far suggests they will cause Burnley plenty of problems this weekend.
Bournemouth look like a side that have goals in them and they are in good form so it would be a surprise if they didn't score at Turf Moor considering how Burnley have been defending. In saying that I also think Burnley will have some opportunities as Bournemouth have been far from watertight at the back.
That has been a feature of Bournemouth under Eddie Howe and there are signs that he is yet to find the right defensive formulas which has been covered up by their strong set of results. With that in mind I do think the best way to get onto this fixture is backing both teams to score in a game that could easily go either way.
Cardiff v Manchester City Pick: It is going to be fascinating to see the reaction of the Manchester City players to their 1-2 home loss against Lyon in the Champions League during the week. That came after manager Pep Guardiola had been critical of the lack of composure his team had shown in their 3-0 win over Fulham when Manchester City missed a host of opportunities for more goals in the second half.
That complacency may have seeped over to the Champions League game during the week and I think the Manchester City players will be reminded of their duties by the manager over the two days between fixtures.
Overall the Manchester City form has been decent and they will be expected to be too good for a Cardiff City team who have struggled at both ends of the field in their last couple of League games. Those came against Arsenal and Chelsea and I do think there is a significant difference in squad abilities between these two opponents on Saturday.
Cardiff City do have a week to prepare for the game and Neil Warnock will organise his team to be hard to beat, but containing Manchester City off a defeat won't be easy. The visitors have created plenty of chances in their last couple of Premier League games and Cardiff City have had issues in front of goal which makes me think the big Asian Handicap can be covered by the English Champions.
The Bluebirds have conceded three times to both Norwich City and Arsenal in their last couple of home games and conceded four at Chelsea last weekend. I expect Manchester City will be able to wear down Cardiff City in a similar manner to how Chelsea did and they may also score the late goals to help them overcome a big spread.
It is a big ask for Manchester City who would have overcome this Asian Handicap in only 4 of their 16 away Premier League wins last season. However Cardiff City have looked a little vulnerable defensively and my worst case scenario here feels like Manchester City will earn a push.
Crystal Palace v Newcastle United Pick: On first glance you can see why Crystal Palace may be a popular pick this weekend to beat Newcastle United having won at Huddersfield Town while The Magpies are in the midst of a poor run of form.
However I don't think things are going to be as plain-sailing as that for the home team who look a short price for a team who have yet to score at Selhurst Park this season. Crystal Palace have found themselves to be defensively vulnerable in those home games and I think Newcastle United do enough to at least pose some problems for them.
The bigger concern for Newcastle United fans has to be the amount of chances they have allowed teams to create against them considering Rafa Benitez' reputation for defensive organisation. They have had a tough fixture list which can't be ignored, although I do think Crystal Palace are a team who get forward with pace and will create their chances in this one too.
With a gun to my head I would lean towards Crystal Palace as the more likely winner, but I don't think they have completely convinced this season. That gives Newcastle United a chance to surprise and I think the Crystal Palace attacking mentality will offer up the visitors some strong counter attacking opportunities.
These two teams did play two tight Premier League games last season, but I think the defensive performances of both may mean there are more spaces in this one. Last season the fixture ended 1-1 here, but I think there may be at least one more goal and I will back at least three goals to be shared out between them.
Leicester City v Huddersfield Town Pick: When reports surfaced of Leicester City players being unhappy with the travel arrangements for the trip to Bournemouth last week it made the 4-2 defeat that much more alarming for manager Claude Puel. There have been plenty of suggestions the players are not behind the manager and a group that have seen off two managers since winning the Premier League title, including mastermind Claudio Ranieri, can't always be trusted.
This match will give us all a clear idea as to whether Leicester City have downed tools and it isn't as easy as the layers think it is anyway.
Huddersfield Town have been a goal-shy team since returning to the top flight thirteen months ago and they are struggling to earn the wins they need to move away from the bottom three. The last six months have been very tough, but The Terriers have drawn 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games which suggest they can put things together on their travels.
They are facing a Leicester City team who have been able to fashion chances, but who have been struggling for consistency in the final third. While they play good football up to there, it can be tough for Leicester City to break down teams that won't give them space behind and that is the test for them this weekend.
If the players are downing tools this fixture then takes on another kind of difficulty than simply trying to break down Huddersfield Town. Judging from last weekend it can be easy to make snap judgements but Leicester City had been in decent enough form before that and I am going to suggest they were caught cold out of the international break.
I expect much better from Leicester City at home against a team that has struggled for goals and last season this fixture ended 3-0 in favour of the home team. With Jamie Vardy back after an enforced lay off, I think there is enough quality in the home ranks to find a way to win this one and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.
Liverpool v Southampton Pick: As poor as I suggest Paris Saint-Germain were on Tuesday evening you can't take away anything from Liverpool and the confidence they are playing with at this moment of time. A sixth straight win in all competitions in 2018/19 will give the players belief that they can have one of the most memorable seasons for Liverpool Football Club in a generation.
Now they will go for a seventh win in a row since losing the Champions League Final to Real Madrid and I think it would be very brave to back against Liverpool getting that this weekend when they host Southampton. Liverpool have been creating plenty of chances in front of goal and you have to think it won't be too long before a team is on the wrong end of a heavy defeat from them.
The front three have been in decent, if unspectacular form, but that has been enough for Liverpool who have looked much more cohesive defensively than twelve months ago. Since the signing of Virgil Van Dijk there has been a more assuredness about Liverpool and I think that can help them in this one to express themselves knowing the backdoor is largely going to be kept shut.
And it is a problem for Southampton who have not been defensively strong and who have had a bit of fortune in a couple of their results. No Danny Ings is a blow for The Saints considering the form he has displayed and I do think Mark Hughes will head to Anfield with a damage limitation mindset that should play into Liverpool's hands.
In recent seasons Liverpool have struggled to deal with Southampton but they crushed them 3-0 here last season and I would not be surprised at all if they matched that margin. It is only a matter of time before Liverpool get it all right in the final third and Southampton look ideal opponents do that against after their own defensive problems.
It is a big Asian Handicap to earn a full return, but I think Liverpool are going to be too strong for Southampton and can beat them with something to spare on Saturday.
Manchester United v Wolves Pick: If the truth is told I don't think I remember the last time Manchester United were as a big a price to win a home League game against a newly promoted club as they are this season. I might be wrong, but it looks a big price immediately and says a lot about where the layers think Manchester United are these days and how well Wolves have played on their return to the top flight.
There has been much to admire about the approach play of Wolves, although they will want to show more composure in front of goal having missed a host of chances in their 1-0 win over Burnley. They simply won't get as many opportunities as that against the big teams and Wolves have shown some vulnerability defensively in the step up to the Premier League.
It may also be said that Wolves are heading to Old Trafford at the wrong time with Manchester United rolling to 3 wins in a row since their stunning 0-3 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. This is the first game back at Old Trafford since that Bank Holiday Monday disaster, but the fans should be in a good mood and feeling positive about the chances of the team.
While there is still some criticism of the performances from Jose Mourinho's team, Manchester United have been creating good chances to open the season. The bigger problem has been defensively as Mourinho has struggled to settle on a centre half pairing, although that problem may be removed with Chris Smalling and Victor Lindelof securing 2 clean sheets in the last 3 games.
I do think Wolves will cause problems with the pace and creativity they have, but I would be surprised if Manchester United didn't create chances and win this game. It could be a good one though and I can't see this one ending 1-0 in favour of the home team unless there are a number of missed chances from both teams.
Instead I think we will see goals and Manchester United will edge out Wolves and so I will back the home team to win a fixture with two or more goals shared out at almost odds against.
Brighton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: When Manchester United were beaten 0-3 by Tottenham Hotspur on Bank Holiday Monday all of the praise was given to Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho was left in a dark place. Roles have been reversed since then with Mourinho looking much more jovial in press conferences after three straight wins, while Pochettino had a mild meltdown following a third loss in a row for Tottenham Hotspur at Inter Milan in the Champions League during the week.
It has become a big weekend for Tottenham Hotspur to arrest their current slide and at least build some momentum before the big Champions League game with Barcelona.
However something has not looked right with the Spurs squad and even their 0-3 win at Old Trafford was flattering. The squad have just not gelled together over their last three games and Tottenham Hotspur have looked vulnerable defensively, especially from set pieces and I think that is tested to the full by Brighton this weekend.
Brighton are much better at home than on their travels too and goals have not been a problem for them at the Amex Stadium. They will be encouraged by Tottenham Hotspur's recent performances and I expect Chris Hughton to want his team to get up the pitch and really test this Tottenham Hotspur defence and especially Michel Vorm.
They are a big team so I imagine Brighton will be a threat from set pieces all afternoon even without Pascal Gross. I do think they are playing well enough to score with Tottenham Hotspur's current problems at the back, but Brighton will also give teams a chance and I think they will struggle to keep a clean sheet.
Backing both teams to score is an option, but I am expecting an attacking game to develop and so instead I will look for at least three goals to be shared out. Brighton have scored and conceded at least twice in each of their 2 home games in the Premier League and Tottenham Hotspur have been involved in 6 games in a row that have finished with at least three goals shared out.
Only Manchester United have failed to score against Tottenham Hotspur and I think there will be goals here with the chances created and conceded by the two teams playing on Saturday afternoon.
West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: Over the last few years Chelsea have seemingly gone from one poor season to a very strong one and the start made to the 2018/19 season suggests they can bounce back from Antonio Conte's last year in charge. They did win the FA Cup last season, but missing out on the Champions League was a huge blow to the club and Maurizio Sarri is looking to restore them to the big time at the end of this campaign.
The 5 straight Premier League wins has seen Chelsea move to the top of the Premier League table on goal difference over Liverpool, although they may have dropped at least a couple of places by the time this fixture kicks off on Sunday. That has to be respected as Chelsea have won both away games played at Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United, although they did have to play a Europa League tie on Thursday in Greece.
We have seen in the past that Europa League and Premier League balancing acts have been very difficult for teams, but Chelsea might have it even tougher after being forced to stay in Greece on Thursday night thanks to adverse weather. It means Chelsea are returning to England on Friday afternoon and that lessens the preparation time against an opponent who last played seven days ago.
West Ham United will have been boosted by the win at Everton after losing their opening 4 games in the Premier League, but there is still work to do. Defensively The Hammers are giving up far too many chances and this Chelsea team have looked good going forward under Sarri with Eden Hazard rested and in fine form coming into the weekend.
Marko Arnautovic being absent would be a huge blow for West Ham United too after he showed his influence on the team last weekend in the win at Goodison Park. He will need to pass a late fitness test, but his involvement could be key for West Ham United to try and extend their run of 3 wins from 4 home games against Chelsea.
I do think that the away team are creating enough chances to hurt West Ham United here although the home team could play a part in this one too. I am giving Chelsea the edge despite the travel issues they have faced and I do think they are creating enough chances to edge out West Ham United in a decent game of football on Sunday afternoon.
With the likelihood of West Ham United playing a part and the chances Chelsea have been creating of their own, I will back the visitors to win a game featuring at least three goals.
Arsenal v Everton Pick: The Europa League is likely to be quite a significant competition for Arsenal this season as a second potential avenue into the Champions League, especially with manager Unai Emery's success in the Europa League from his time managing Sevilla.
However the Premier League remains the bread and butter for the club and Arsenal have shown signs of improvement already under Emery. They certainly look capable of challenging for a top four spot in the Premier League and 4 straight wins in all competitions will give Arsenal plenty of confidence to take into this weekend.
Arsenal are really showing good signs as an attacking unit in recent games and that has to be a little intimidating to Everton who have struggled defensively. Teams are being able to create chances against Everton whose style of play under Marco Silva will mean there are spaces for teams to exploit against them and Arsenal have the pace in forward areas to do that.
Playing in the Europa League on Thursday and preparing for a Premier League game on Sunday has been a tough position for teams to be in, but I think Arsenal playing at home on Thursday is important to their recovery. Even though Everton have had a week to prepare I do think the injury list is a tough one to overcome and even the return of Richarlison is not likely going to be enough to turn things in their favour here.
Arsenal have won 5 in a row against Everton and they scored 10 goals in the two Premier League games against them last season. That includes a 5-1 win at the Emirates Stadium and I will be looking for The Gunners to have too much firepower for their visitors and subsequently cover the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Fulham-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley-Bournemouth Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Brighton-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
September Update: 15-15, + 1.50 Units (60 Units Staked, + 2.50% Yield)
Sometimes it will be an obvious choice, but I will work on the best way to approach the change to the thread so it will be a work in progress.
September has been a mixed month for the Football Picks after another up and down week, but there are still a couple of weeks left to help produce a strong winning record to back up the opening salvo in August.
Hopefully that begins this weekend with the Premier League fixtures being played on Saturday and Sunday.
Fulham v Watford Pick: The opening game of the Premier League weekend sees Fulham and Watford both looking to bounce back from defeats last time out. Both teams were beaten by opponents from Manchester in games they would have been set as the underdog, but both clubs will be looking at this fixture as a much more winnable one.
It has been a great start to the season for Watford who won their first 5 games in all competitions but I do wonder if the defeat to Manchester United has dented their confidence. They have to be respected for some of the strong performances they have put in though and Watford have shown they are a team that can create chances which will make them dangerous.
Fulham have not made as positive an impression on the League table as Watford, but they have shown there is enough in the squad to avoid an immediate return to the Championship. However there has to be a slight worry with the amount of chances Fulham have allowed opponents to create against them in their opening League games.
It is a part of the style of play that Fulham employ with an attacking mindset meaning they are leaving more gaps in the back than they would like. Even in the home win over Burnley, Fulham took their chances but gave up some good opportunities for their visitors and this is a team that looks like they could be involved in some really high scoring games until the mentality changes.
I would be surprised if that changes this weekend as Fulham look for the three points in front of their own fans. They should cause Watford some real problems when they get forward, but Fulham have also allowed their last couple of opponents to create a host of great chances against them.
They won't be the only one to do that when facing Manchester City away from home, but Brighton were another who created a lot of chances against Fulham. Burnley did the same at Craven Cottage and I think this fixture has all the makings of producing at least three goals shared out with plenty of attacking intent on display.
Burnley v Bournemouth Pick: There was a real feeling that there would be some type of regression from Burnley in the new season after a very special 2017/18 season, but there will be some real worries that they could drop significantly from the 7th place finish they had.
The poor start has followed on from a poor end to last season and Burnley have lost 4 of their last 5 Premier League games at Turf Moor which is a real concern. They have not defended anything like the level they were producing twelve months ago and Burnley have found it tough to create significant chances for their strikers which has all come together to see them sit at the bottom of the Premier League table.
At the start of the season they may have circled a home game with Bournemouth as a good chance to bounce back from a poor run, but the visitors have been in fine form to open the season. Even in their 2-0 defeat at Chelsea The Cherries created some good chances and the performances so far suggests they will cause Burnley plenty of problems this weekend.
Bournemouth look like a side that have goals in them and they are in good form so it would be a surprise if they didn't score at Turf Moor considering how Burnley have been defending. In saying that I also think Burnley will have some opportunities as Bournemouth have been far from watertight at the back.
That has been a feature of Bournemouth under Eddie Howe and there are signs that he is yet to find the right defensive formulas which has been covered up by their strong set of results. With that in mind I do think the best way to get onto this fixture is backing both teams to score in a game that could easily go either way.
Cardiff v Manchester City Pick: It is going to be fascinating to see the reaction of the Manchester City players to their 1-2 home loss against Lyon in the Champions League during the week. That came after manager Pep Guardiola had been critical of the lack of composure his team had shown in their 3-0 win over Fulham when Manchester City missed a host of opportunities for more goals in the second half.
That complacency may have seeped over to the Champions League game during the week and I think the Manchester City players will be reminded of their duties by the manager over the two days between fixtures.
Overall the Manchester City form has been decent and they will be expected to be too good for a Cardiff City team who have struggled at both ends of the field in their last couple of League games. Those came against Arsenal and Chelsea and I do think there is a significant difference in squad abilities between these two opponents on Saturday.
Cardiff City do have a week to prepare for the game and Neil Warnock will organise his team to be hard to beat, but containing Manchester City off a defeat won't be easy. The visitors have created plenty of chances in their last couple of Premier League games and Cardiff City have had issues in front of goal which makes me think the big Asian Handicap can be covered by the English Champions.
The Bluebirds have conceded three times to both Norwich City and Arsenal in their last couple of home games and conceded four at Chelsea last weekend. I expect Manchester City will be able to wear down Cardiff City in a similar manner to how Chelsea did and they may also score the late goals to help them overcome a big spread.
It is a big ask for Manchester City who would have overcome this Asian Handicap in only 4 of their 16 away Premier League wins last season. However Cardiff City have looked a little vulnerable defensively and my worst case scenario here feels like Manchester City will earn a push.
Crystal Palace v Newcastle United Pick: On first glance you can see why Crystal Palace may be a popular pick this weekend to beat Newcastle United having won at Huddersfield Town while The Magpies are in the midst of a poor run of form.
However I don't think things are going to be as plain-sailing as that for the home team who look a short price for a team who have yet to score at Selhurst Park this season. Crystal Palace have found themselves to be defensively vulnerable in those home games and I think Newcastle United do enough to at least pose some problems for them.
The bigger concern for Newcastle United fans has to be the amount of chances they have allowed teams to create against them considering Rafa Benitez' reputation for defensive organisation. They have had a tough fixture list which can't be ignored, although I do think Crystal Palace are a team who get forward with pace and will create their chances in this one too.
With a gun to my head I would lean towards Crystal Palace as the more likely winner, but I don't think they have completely convinced this season. That gives Newcastle United a chance to surprise and I think the Crystal Palace attacking mentality will offer up the visitors some strong counter attacking opportunities.
These two teams did play two tight Premier League games last season, but I think the defensive performances of both may mean there are more spaces in this one. Last season the fixture ended 1-1 here, but I think there may be at least one more goal and I will back at least three goals to be shared out between them.
Leicester City v Huddersfield Town Pick: When reports surfaced of Leicester City players being unhappy with the travel arrangements for the trip to Bournemouth last week it made the 4-2 defeat that much more alarming for manager Claude Puel. There have been plenty of suggestions the players are not behind the manager and a group that have seen off two managers since winning the Premier League title, including mastermind Claudio Ranieri, can't always be trusted.
This match will give us all a clear idea as to whether Leicester City have downed tools and it isn't as easy as the layers think it is anyway.
Huddersfield Town have been a goal-shy team since returning to the top flight thirteen months ago and they are struggling to earn the wins they need to move away from the bottom three. The last six months have been very tough, but The Terriers have drawn 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games which suggest they can put things together on their travels.
They are facing a Leicester City team who have been able to fashion chances, but who have been struggling for consistency in the final third. While they play good football up to there, it can be tough for Leicester City to break down teams that won't give them space behind and that is the test for them this weekend.
If the players are downing tools this fixture then takes on another kind of difficulty than simply trying to break down Huddersfield Town. Judging from last weekend it can be easy to make snap judgements but Leicester City had been in decent enough form before that and I am going to suggest they were caught cold out of the international break.
I expect much better from Leicester City at home against a team that has struggled for goals and last season this fixture ended 3-0 in favour of the home team. With Jamie Vardy back after an enforced lay off, I think there is enough quality in the home ranks to find a way to win this one and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.
Liverpool v Southampton Pick: As poor as I suggest Paris Saint-Germain were on Tuesday evening you can't take away anything from Liverpool and the confidence they are playing with at this moment of time. A sixth straight win in all competitions in 2018/19 will give the players belief that they can have one of the most memorable seasons for Liverpool Football Club in a generation.
Now they will go for a seventh win in a row since losing the Champions League Final to Real Madrid and I think it would be very brave to back against Liverpool getting that this weekend when they host Southampton. Liverpool have been creating plenty of chances in front of goal and you have to think it won't be too long before a team is on the wrong end of a heavy defeat from them.
The front three have been in decent, if unspectacular form, but that has been enough for Liverpool who have looked much more cohesive defensively than twelve months ago. Since the signing of Virgil Van Dijk there has been a more assuredness about Liverpool and I think that can help them in this one to express themselves knowing the backdoor is largely going to be kept shut.
And it is a problem for Southampton who have not been defensively strong and who have had a bit of fortune in a couple of their results. No Danny Ings is a blow for The Saints considering the form he has displayed and I do think Mark Hughes will head to Anfield with a damage limitation mindset that should play into Liverpool's hands.
In recent seasons Liverpool have struggled to deal with Southampton but they crushed them 3-0 here last season and I would not be surprised at all if they matched that margin. It is only a matter of time before Liverpool get it all right in the final third and Southampton look ideal opponents do that against after their own defensive problems.
It is a big Asian Handicap to earn a full return, but I think Liverpool are going to be too strong for Southampton and can beat them with something to spare on Saturday.
Manchester United v Wolves Pick: If the truth is told I don't think I remember the last time Manchester United were as a big a price to win a home League game against a newly promoted club as they are this season. I might be wrong, but it looks a big price immediately and says a lot about where the layers think Manchester United are these days and how well Wolves have played on their return to the top flight.
There has been much to admire about the approach play of Wolves, although they will want to show more composure in front of goal having missed a host of chances in their 1-0 win over Burnley. They simply won't get as many opportunities as that against the big teams and Wolves have shown some vulnerability defensively in the step up to the Premier League.
It may also be said that Wolves are heading to Old Trafford at the wrong time with Manchester United rolling to 3 wins in a row since their stunning 0-3 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. This is the first game back at Old Trafford since that Bank Holiday Monday disaster, but the fans should be in a good mood and feeling positive about the chances of the team.
While there is still some criticism of the performances from Jose Mourinho's team, Manchester United have been creating good chances to open the season. The bigger problem has been defensively as Mourinho has struggled to settle on a centre half pairing, although that problem may be removed with Chris Smalling and Victor Lindelof securing 2 clean sheets in the last 3 games.
I do think Wolves will cause problems with the pace and creativity they have, but I would be surprised if Manchester United didn't create chances and win this game. It could be a good one though and I can't see this one ending 1-0 in favour of the home team unless there are a number of missed chances from both teams.
Instead I think we will see goals and Manchester United will edge out Wolves and so I will back the home team to win a fixture with two or more goals shared out at almost odds against.
Brighton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: When Manchester United were beaten 0-3 by Tottenham Hotspur on Bank Holiday Monday all of the praise was given to Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho was left in a dark place. Roles have been reversed since then with Mourinho looking much more jovial in press conferences after three straight wins, while Pochettino had a mild meltdown following a third loss in a row for Tottenham Hotspur at Inter Milan in the Champions League during the week.
It has become a big weekend for Tottenham Hotspur to arrest their current slide and at least build some momentum before the big Champions League game with Barcelona.
However something has not looked right with the Spurs squad and even their 0-3 win at Old Trafford was flattering. The squad have just not gelled together over their last three games and Tottenham Hotspur have looked vulnerable defensively, especially from set pieces and I think that is tested to the full by Brighton this weekend.
Brighton are much better at home than on their travels too and goals have not been a problem for them at the Amex Stadium. They will be encouraged by Tottenham Hotspur's recent performances and I expect Chris Hughton to want his team to get up the pitch and really test this Tottenham Hotspur defence and especially Michel Vorm.
They are a big team so I imagine Brighton will be a threat from set pieces all afternoon even without Pascal Gross. I do think they are playing well enough to score with Tottenham Hotspur's current problems at the back, but Brighton will also give teams a chance and I think they will struggle to keep a clean sheet.
Backing both teams to score is an option, but I am expecting an attacking game to develop and so instead I will look for at least three goals to be shared out. Brighton have scored and conceded at least twice in each of their 2 home games in the Premier League and Tottenham Hotspur have been involved in 6 games in a row that have finished with at least three goals shared out.
Only Manchester United have failed to score against Tottenham Hotspur and I think there will be goals here with the chances created and conceded by the two teams playing on Saturday afternoon.
West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: Over the last few years Chelsea have seemingly gone from one poor season to a very strong one and the start made to the 2018/19 season suggests they can bounce back from Antonio Conte's last year in charge. They did win the FA Cup last season, but missing out on the Champions League was a huge blow to the club and Maurizio Sarri is looking to restore them to the big time at the end of this campaign.
The 5 straight Premier League wins has seen Chelsea move to the top of the Premier League table on goal difference over Liverpool, although they may have dropped at least a couple of places by the time this fixture kicks off on Sunday. That has to be respected as Chelsea have won both away games played at Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United, although they did have to play a Europa League tie on Thursday in Greece.
We have seen in the past that Europa League and Premier League balancing acts have been very difficult for teams, but Chelsea might have it even tougher after being forced to stay in Greece on Thursday night thanks to adverse weather. It means Chelsea are returning to England on Friday afternoon and that lessens the preparation time against an opponent who last played seven days ago.
West Ham United will have been boosted by the win at Everton after losing their opening 4 games in the Premier League, but there is still work to do. Defensively The Hammers are giving up far too many chances and this Chelsea team have looked good going forward under Sarri with Eden Hazard rested and in fine form coming into the weekend.
Marko Arnautovic being absent would be a huge blow for West Ham United too after he showed his influence on the team last weekend in the win at Goodison Park. He will need to pass a late fitness test, but his involvement could be key for West Ham United to try and extend their run of 3 wins from 4 home games against Chelsea.
I do think that the away team are creating enough chances to hurt West Ham United here although the home team could play a part in this one too. I am giving Chelsea the edge despite the travel issues they have faced and I do think they are creating enough chances to edge out West Ham United in a decent game of football on Sunday afternoon.
With the likelihood of West Ham United playing a part and the chances Chelsea have been creating of their own, I will back the visitors to win a game featuring at least three goals.
Arsenal v Everton Pick: The Europa League is likely to be quite a significant competition for Arsenal this season as a second potential avenue into the Champions League, especially with manager Unai Emery's success in the Europa League from his time managing Sevilla.
However the Premier League remains the bread and butter for the club and Arsenal have shown signs of improvement already under Emery. They certainly look capable of challenging for a top four spot in the Premier League and 4 straight wins in all competitions will give Arsenal plenty of confidence to take into this weekend.
Arsenal are really showing good signs as an attacking unit in recent games and that has to be a little intimidating to Everton who have struggled defensively. Teams are being able to create chances against Everton whose style of play under Marco Silva will mean there are spaces for teams to exploit against them and Arsenal have the pace in forward areas to do that.
Playing in the Europa League on Thursday and preparing for a Premier League game on Sunday has been a tough position for teams to be in, but I think Arsenal playing at home on Thursday is important to their recovery. Even though Everton have had a week to prepare I do think the injury list is a tough one to overcome and even the return of Richarlison is not likely going to be enough to turn things in their favour here.
Arsenal have won 5 in a row against Everton and they scored 10 goals in the two Premier League games against them last season. That includes a 5-1 win at the Emirates Stadium and I will be looking for The Gunners to have too much firepower for their visitors and subsequently cover the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Fulham-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley-Bournemouth Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Brighton-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
September Update: 15-15, + 1.50 Units (60 Units Staked, + 2.50% Yield)
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