It has been a pretty poor last few days for the picks as a big profit has dwindled away- most of those have been my own fault for making bad picks so I can't complain except at my poor judgement.
The only positive going is the fact that Roger Federer and Serena Williams are making their way through the draw as my outright picks.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Richard Gasquet has been playing well in his last couple of hard court tournaments, reaching the Final in Toronto and he has made comfortable progress through the draw here.
However, he is now facing David Ferrer, a player that has beaten him in 7 of their 8 previous matches, and who has won the last 9 sets the two have played against one another.
Ferrer showed some toughness to knock off Lleyton Hewitt in the last Round and he will be full of confidence in this match. He will show his usual level of consistency and you just have to think Gasquet is going to have to be more aggressive if he is going to make this a close match, and that is something he hasn't always felt comfortable doing.
They met in the Australian Open earlier this year and Ferrer won 6-4, 6-4, 6-1... It might be something similar today.
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets v Andy Roddick: Andy Roddick may just be playing his final ever professional match tonight under the lights against another former US Open Champion.
Juan Martin Del Potro had some question marks surrounding his fitness before this tournament began, but he has quietly made his way through the draw to this Fourth Round match and he has the big game that will give Roddick plenty of problems.
I don't expect the American will go down without a fight and he has been playing enough good tennis to think he will win a set against Del Potro, but overall the Argentinian is just too big off the ground and should be able to come through and end Roddick's career on the biggest tennis stadium in the World.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Sam Stosur: It seems strange to back against the defending US Open Champion with such a big spread, but Victoria Azarenka has absolutely dominated Sam Stosur in their previous meetings and there isn't much to suggest it won't be the same again in this one.
Azarenka is 6-0 against Stosur and she hasn't lost a set against the Australian in those matches. Just to highlight the dominance, Azarenka has lost just ELEVEN games in the last four matches between the two players as she is stronger once the ball is in play.
The World Number 1 will get enough balls back in play off the Stosur serve and she has a clear edge when it comes to the backhand battle, while she is much more consistent off the ground.
A 6-4, 6-2 win is on the cards as far as I can foresee.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-11, + 0.16 Units (39 Units Staked)
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Tuesday, 4 September 2012
Monday, 3 September 2012
United Corner (Southampton and Champions League Draw)
We have reached the first international break of the new season after the thrilling 2-3 win for United at St Mary's yesterday, although the late winner covered up some of the poorer elements of the play.
Picking up 6 points from a home game against Fulham and a trip to Southampton is the minimum expectation for a side that wants to win the Premier League as far as I am concerned, yet United could very easily have dropped points in both of those games. It took two late goals to beat Southampton, while United were rocking at 3-2 up against Fulham at Old Trafford last weekend and these are a concern to me.
The team just doesn't seem to have the control in the midfield that they need to really dictate games and yesterday was no different as they seemed to have disappear at times with Southampton finding it very easy to get the ball into the box and attack the back four.
There was no real penetrative passes being made by either Tom Cleverley or Michael Carrick and I don't think it was any surprise when Robin Van Persie mentioned Paul Scholes in a positive light in the post-match interview. As soon as Scholes came on, you could see Van Persie looking to get in between the two centre halves knowing that a ball would be played through the gaps or over the top for his runs.
My issue with Scholes is not the undoubted quality that he possesses- it is more to do with the fact that he is soon turning 38 years old and there will be bigger tests than the one Southampton posed yesterday. There is no doubt that Southampton gave him too much time and space on the ball and that won't be the case when we play the likes of Arsenal, Manchester City nor Liverpool and that is where the problem lies for United.
Don't get me wrong, it isn't easy to replace a player of the calibre of Paul Scholes as Barcelona will soon find out when looking for the next Xavi and Andres Iniesta, but we just don't seem to have anyone that is going to be capable enough of running games even against some of the weaker teams in the League.
As I have said in my previous 'United Corner' post, I don't particularly rate Cleverley as much as some seem to be high on him, while Carrick does the simple things well but can really fall out of games at times, particularly against the better teams. Anderson and Darren Fletcher are other options in this area, but there just isn't another player like Scholes that is willing to play those telling passes moving forward rather than sideways and backwards.
The most frustrating element of the midfield issues is the clear and unequivocal desire NOT to buy a player there from the staff at Old Trafford. I don't know why it doesn't seem obvious to Fergie that we need a new body in there, whether he is just being stubborn to prove everyone wrong, but there is a clear need there.
I found it stunning that United didn't at least offer Fulham cash plus Dimitar Berbatov for Moussa Dembele, but my initial thought was Fulham were not interested in Berbatov. That became all the more stunning when the Bulgarian did sign for the West London club who had sold Dembele to Tottenham by that time.
The whole situation leaves me scratching my head and wondering just why we haven't made an effort to fill a glaring weakness.
As well as Robin Van Persie's telling comments about Paul Scholes, I was impressed with him in general, particularly apologising for the 'penalty' he took that could have been very costly if he hadn't popped up with a couple of goals in the final few minutes.
I can't think of too many other players that have scored a hat-trick that has given his new club three points that would have focused so much on the mistake they made with a missed penalty, but he did the right thing in addressing it and that also makes me confident he won't do anything as stupid as that again.
The Champions League Draw was made last Thursday and I don't think anyone can be too disappointed with it, but then again I thought the same thing last season. I actually think the Group is probably slightly weaker than last season's, and United should be able to cruise through as long as Fergie doesn't decide to rotate the squad too much.
We should really go out to win our first four games and then give the fringe players a chance in the last two games against Galatasaray and Cluj, and winning the Group shouldn't be a problem for United.
Braga are a tough team at home, but they concede a lot of goals and they are probably the biggest threat at this stage.
All in all, I expect United will cruise through after the disappointment of the same stage last season.
Picking up 6 points from a home game against Fulham and a trip to Southampton is the minimum expectation for a side that wants to win the Premier League as far as I am concerned, yet United could very easily have dropped points in both of those games. It took two late goals to beat Southampton, while United were rocking at 3-2 up against Fulham at Old Trafford last weekend and these are a concern to me.
The team just doesn't seem to have the control in the midfield that they need to really dictate games and yesterday was no different as they seemed to have disappear at times with Southampton finding it very easy to get the ball into the box and attack the back four.
There was no real penetrative passes being made by either Tom Cleverley or Michael Carrick and I don't think it was any surprise when Robin Van Persie mentioned Paul Scholes in a positive light in the post-match interview. As soon as Scholes came on, you could see Van Persie looking to get in between the two centre halves knowing that a ball would be played through the gaps or over the top for his runs.
My issue with Scholes is not the undoubted quality that he possesses- it is more to do with the fact that he is soon turning 38 years old and there will be bigger tests than the one Southampton posed yesterday. There is no doubt that Southampton gave him too much time and space on the ball and that won't be the case when we play the likes of Arsenal, Manchester City nor Liverpool and that is where the problem lies for United.
Don't get me wrong, it isn't easy to replace a player of the calibre of Paul Scholes as Barcelona will soon find out when looking for the next Xavi and Andres Iniesta, but we just don't seem to have anyone that is going to be capable enough of running games even against some of the weaker teams in the League.
As I have said in my previous 'United Corner' post, I don't particularly rate Cleverley as much as some seem to be high on him, while Carrick does the simple things well but can really fall out of games at times, particularly against the better teams. Anderson and Darren Fletcher are other options in this area, but there just isn't another player like Scholes that is willing to play those telling passes moving forward rather than sideways and backwards.
The most frustrating element of the midfield issues is the clear and unequivocal desire NOT to buy a player there from the staff at Old Trafford. I don't know why it doesn't seem obvious to Fergie that we need a new body in there, whether he is just being stubborn to prove everyone wrong, but there is a clear need there.
I found it stunning that United didn't at least offer Fulham cash plus Dimitar Berbatov for Moussa Dembele, but my initial thought was Fulham were not interested in Berbatov. That became all the more stunning when the Bulgarian did sign for the West London club who had sold Dembele to Tottenham by that time.
The whole situation leaves me scratching my head and wondering just why we haven't made an effort to fill a glaring weakness.
As well as Robin Van Persie's telling comments about Paul Scholes, I was impressed with him in general, particularly apologising for the 'penalty' he took that could have been very costly if he hadn't popped up with a couple of goals in the final few minutes.
I can't think of too many other players that have scored a hat-trick that has given his new club three points that would have focused so much on the mistake they made with a missed penalty, but he did the right thing in addressing it and that also makes me confident he won't do anything as stupid as that again.
The Champions League Draw was made last Thursday and I don't think anyone can be too disappointed with it, but then again I thought the same thing last season. I actually think the Group is probably slightly weaker than last season's, and United should be able to cruise through as long as Fergie doesn't decide to rotate the squad too much.
We should really go out to win our first four games and then give the fringe players a chance in the last two games against Galatasaray and Cluj, and winning the Group shouldn't be a problem for United.
Braga are a tough team at home, but they concede a lot of goals and they are probably the biggest threat at this stage.
All in all, I expect United will cruise through after the disappointment of the same stage last season.
US Open Day 8 Picks (September 3rd)
Yesterday was as bad a day as I could have hoped for for the most part as Petra Kvitova was knocked out of the Women's event meaning my first outright choice from the five I made exited the tournament.
Her collapse after winning the first set 6-1 also meant both picks went down the crapper, although still in profit for the week.
However, all the doom and gloom was lifted as John Isner was knocked in the last match of the day and that leaves my pick of David Ferrer to win the Third Quarter of the Men's draw in a good position with his main rival out of the way. However, he has a tough couple of matches in front of him if he is to achieve his goal of making it back to the US Open Semi Finals.
Both the Men's and Women's events are shaping up nicely now as he we head into the final week of the last Grand Slam of the season. I have liked the look of both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic and wouldn't be surprised if that is the Final we get this time next week, while all eyes are on Serena Williams in the bottom half of the draw.
Today we will get to complete the Women's Quarter Final line up as well as seeing some of the big clashes in the Men's Fourth Round that many would have been waiting for since the draw was made, including Andy Murray v Milos Raonic.
Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets v Nicolas Almagro: Anyone who watches tennis on a regular basis will know there isn't much love lost between these two players after their incident in Australia earlier this year.
This will be the fourth meeting between Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych this season and it is the latter that has a 2-1 lead. Berdych has also looked impressive so far during the US Open and clearly has built more confidence from his run to the Final at Winston Salem in the lead up to the event.
He is the better hard court player of the two and he has spent a lot less time on the court than Almagro who has needed at least 4 sets in each of his first three matches and that includes a 5 set match against Philip Petzschner.
However, Almagro has enough belief in his game to think he will win a set in this one, although I expect Berdych to be too strong in the end. This looks worth a small interest.
Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Mardy Fish: Roger Federer has looked so controlled in the first week of the tournament and I am expecting him to make serene progress through to the Quarter Final in this one.
Mardy Fish is a tough opponent, but he is still rediscovering his form after a long lay off ahead of Wimbledon and he has already spent a lot of time on the court so his fitness has to be in question against someone like Federer.
They met a couple of weeks ago in Cincinnati and the 6-3, 7-6 win for Federer doesn't come close to telling the tale of that match as the World Number 1 dominated and had chances to win in much more comfortable fashion.
With the extra time on the court and the longer distance match, I think Federer will prove far too tough for Fish and he should be extra-focused against an opponent he knows can be very tough to play on his day.
I will be looking for a 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 win for Federer and a place in the last eight.
Milos Raonic + 2.5 sets v Andy Murray: The first two picks were going to be my only plays on the day until I saw this pick being offered at ODDS AGAINST by one firm of layers.
Milos Raonic has a huge serve and I think he has the chance of earning the upset considering this match will be played under the lights and that is when the ball seems to be moving that much faster through the court.
Raonic has a huge serve that will put pressure on Andy Murray, even though the latter is one of the best returners of serve on the ATP Tour.
The match is very likely going to see a couple of tie-breakers and there is every chance that Raonic will sneak one of those which will be enough for this pick to be a winner.
I honestly believe Raonic can pull the upset, but will take this at odds against which looks a remarkably bad insight into the match.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 6.5 games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic + 2.5 sets @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-9, + 3.16 Units (34 Units Staked)
Her collapse after winning the first set 6-1 also meant both picks went down the crapper, although still in profit for the week.
However, all the doom and gloom was lifted as John Isner was knocked in the last match of the day and that leaves my pick of David Ferrer to win the Third Quarter of the Men's draw in a good position with his main rival out of the way. However, he has a tough couple of matches in front of him if he is to achieve his goal of making it back to the US Open Semi Finals.
Both the Men's and Women's events are shaping up nicely now as he we head into the final week of the last Grand Slam of the season. I have liked the look of both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic and wouldn't be surprised if that is the Final we get this time next week, while all eyes are on Serena Williams in the bottom half of the draw.
Today we will get to complete the Women's Quarter Final line up as well as seeing some of the big clashes in the Men's Fourth Round that many would have been waiting for since the draw was made, including Andy Murray v Milos Raonic.
Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets v Nicolas Almagro: Anyone who watches tennis on a regular basis will know there isn't much love lost between these two players after their incident in Australia earlier this year.
This will be the fourth meeting between Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych this season and it is the latter that has a 2-1 lead. Berdych has also looked impressive so far during the US Open and clearly has built more confidence from his run to the Final at Winston Salem in the lead up to the event.
He is the better hard court player of the two and he has spent a lot less time on the court than Almagro who has needed at least 4 sets in each of his first three matches and that includes a 5 set match against Philip Petzschner.
However, Almagro has enough belief in his game to think he will win a set in this one, although I expect Berdych to be too strong in the end. This looks worth a small interest.
Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Mardy Fish: Roger Federer has looked so controlled in the first week of the tournament and I am expecting him to make serene progress through to the Quarter Final in this one.
Mardy Fish is a tough opponent, but he is still rediscovering his form after a long lay off ahead of Wimbledon and he has already spent a lot of time on the court so his fitness has to be in question against someone like Federer.
They met a couple of weeks ago in Cincinnati and the 6-3, 7-6 win for Federer doesn't come close to telling the tale of that match as the World Number 1 dominated and had chances to win in much more comfortable fashion.
With the extra time on the court and the longer distance match, I think Federer will prove far too tough for Fish and he should be extra-focused against an opponent he knows can be very tough to play on his day.
I will be looking for a 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 win for Federer and a place in the last eight.
Milos Raonic + 2.5 sets v Andy Murray: The first two picks were going to be my only plays on the day until I saw this pick being offered at ODDS AGAINST by one firm of layers.
Milos Raonic has a huge serve and I think he has the chance of earning the upset considering this match will be played under the lights and that is when the ball seems to be moving that much faster through the court.
Raonic has a huge serve that will put pressure on Andy Murray, even though the latter is one of the best returners of serve on the ATP Tour.
The match is very likely going to see a couple of tie-breakers and there is every chance that Raonic will sneak one of those which will be enough for this pick to be a winner.
I honestly believe Raonic can pull the upset, but will take this at odds against which looks a remarkably bad insight into the match.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 6.5 games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic + 2.5 sets @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-9, + 3.16 Units (34 Units Staked)
Sunday, 2 September 2012
US Open Day 7 Picks (September 2nd)
Alexandr Dolgopolov v Stanislas Wawrinka: I am going to have a small interest in Alexandr Dolgopolov to come through this Third Round match, although he is one of the most inconsistent players in the top Rankings and is always susceptible to throwing in an awful performance.
However, Dolgopolov has all the tools to cause Stanislas Wawrinka problems in this one and I was surprised that he was set as the underdog in the match.
I'll hope the Ukrainian's variations in the groundstrokes cause Wawrinka enough problems, although this has the makings of a five setter.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Marion Bartoli: Petra Kvitova was my pick to come through the top half of the section in the Women's draw and she has the chance to move through to the Quarter Finals and I am expecting her to do so in style.
Kvitova has been playing very well throughout the Summer on the North American hard courts and she destroyed Marion Bartoli in Montreal for the loss of just 2 games.
While I expect Bartoli to have more fight in this one, Kvitova is the one with the heavier groundstrokes and I think she will come through 6-2, 6-4
MY PICKS: Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-7, + 6.16 Units (31 Units Staked)
However, Dolgopolov has all the tools to cause Stanislas Wawrinka problems in this one and I was surprised that he was set as the underdog in the match.
I'll hope the Ukrainian's variations in the groundstrokes cause Wawrinka enough problems, although this has the makings of a five setter.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Marion Bartoli: Petra Kvitova was my pick to come through the top half of the section in the Women's draw and she has the chance to move through to the Quarter Finals and I am expecting her to do so in style.
Kvitova has been playing very well throughout the Summer on the North American hard courts and she destroyed Marion Bartoli in Montreal for the loss of just 2 games.
While I expect Bartoli to have more fight in this one, Kvitova is the one with the heavier groundstrokes and I think she will come through 6-2, 6-4
MY PICKS: Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-7, + 6.16 Units (31 Units Staked)
Saturday, 1 September 2012
US Open Day 6 Picks (September 1st)
The first week of this tournament has been going along swimmingly for the picks, both the outright and the daily ones, so I am pretty happy all in all.
However, I have seen how quick things can turnaround so am avoiding patting myself on the back and trying to concentrate as we complete the Third Round matches in the Women's tournament and beginning the Third Round of the Men's event.
Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This is a big spread to cover against a talented player like Fernando Verdasco, but Roger Federer has looked very good in his first couple of Rounds and I think he is going to put in another top performance against an opponent he will respect and not take lightly.
Verdasco is not the same player as he was back in 2009 when he had his break out season on the Tour, and he does have the tendency to throw away sets and that is where I think Federer will make hay.
The World Number 1 has been serving very effectively going back to Cincinnati and he will exert a lot of pressure on Verdasco and I think that will eventually be too much for the Spaniard.
The first set could be close, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Federer rolling in straight sets, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4
Sam Querrey v Tomas Berdych: I know Tomas Berdych has come through his first couple of matches here without losing a set, but he has given his opponents some chances and I don't think his form warrants him to be a big favourite in this match.
Sam Querrey had an injury filled 2011, but he has been playing well in 2012 as he moves back up the Rankings, including winning the event in Los Angeles and Semi Final appearances in Washington and Winston Salem.
You have to remember that it was Berdych that ended Querrey's interest in Winston Salem last week, but he had previously been an early loser in tournaments at Wimbledon, the Olympics, Cincinnati and Toronto.
There is every chance we could see a couple of tie-breakers in this one and I think the American is worth backing for a very small interest.
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Both of these players have dropped one set in the previous two Rounds of the tournament, but I like the Italian's chances to progress through to the Fourth Round as she has dominated recent meetings with Dominika Cibulkova.
Vinci has won the last three matches against Cibulkova and has only dropped one set in that time and she should be full of confidence now she is one win away from matching her total from the whole of the 2011 season.
She also won the tournament in Dallas last week to build that confidence and her 17-8 record on the hard courts this season is impressive.
I don't want to under-estimate Cibulkova who is a real fighter on the court, but she hasn't been as consistent as Vinci this season and I wouldn't be too surprised if she goes down in straight sets in this one.
Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: I have backed Serena Williams in the main draw to win this tournament, but I think Ekaterina Makarova is being under-estimated to at least make life a little difficult for the American.
Serena will come out firing in this contest after being beaten by Makarova in the Australian Open earlier this season and her interview when mentioning that after her Second Round win is my biggest concern as Williams can be unplayable when fully locked in in a match.
However, Makarova has enough tools to keep plugging away in the match and, even if she loses in the end, I think the Russian will make sure Serena knows she has been in a match.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 8.5 games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 9-4, + 9.16 Units (24 Units Staked)
However, I have seen how quick things can turnaround so am avoiding patting myself on the back and trying to concentrate as we complete the Third Round matches in the Women's tournament and beginning the Third Round of the Men's event.
Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This is a big spread to cover against a talented player like Fernando Verdasco, but Roger Federer has looked very good in his first couple of Rounds and I think he is going to put in another top performance against an opponent he will respect and not take lightly.
Verdasco is not the same player as he was back in 2009 when he had his break out season on the Tour, and he does have the tendency to throw away sets and that is where I think Federer will make hay.
The World Number 1 has been serving very effectively going back to Cincinnati and he will exert a lot of pressure on Verdasco and I think that will eventually be too much for the Spaniard.
The first set could be close, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Federer rolling in straight sets, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4
Sam Querrey v Tomas Berdych: I know Tomas Berdych has come through his first couple of matches here without losing a set, but he has given his opponents some chances and I don't think his form warrants him to be a big favourite in this match.
Sam Querrey had an injury filled 2011, but he has been playing well in 2012 as he moves back up the Rankings, including winning the event in Los Angeles and Semi Final appearances in Washington and Winston Salem.
You have to remember that it was Berdych that ended Querrey's interest in Winston Salem last week, but he had previously been an early loser in tournaments at Wimbledon, the Olympics, Cincinnati and Toronto.
There is every chance we could see a couple of tie-breakers in this one and I think the American is worth backing for a very small interest.
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Both of these players have dropped one set in the previous two Rounds of the tournament, but I like the Italian's chances to progress through to the Fourth Round as she has dominated recent meetings with Dominika Cibulkova.
Vinci has won the last three matches against Cibulkova and has only dropped one set in that time and she should be full of confidence now she is one win away from matching her total from the whole of the 2011 season.
She also won the tournament in Dallas last week to build that confidence and her 17-8 record on the hard courts this season is impressive.
I don't want to under-estimate Cibulkova who is a real fighter on the court, but she hasn't been as consistent as Vinci this season and I wouldn't be too surprised if she goes down in straight sets in this one.
Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: I have backed Serena Williams in the main draw to win this tournament, but I think Ekaterina Makarova is being under-estimated to at least make life a little difficult for the American.
Serena will come out firing in this contest after being beaten by Makarova in the Australian Open earlier this season and her interview when mentioning that after her Second Round win is my biggest concern as Williams can be unplayable when fully locked in in a match.
However, Makarova has enough tools to keep plugging away in the match and, even if she loses in the end, I think the Russian will make sure Serena knows she has been in a match.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 8.5 games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova + 6.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 9-4, + 9.16 Units (24 Units Staked)
Friday, 31 August 2012
US Open Day 5 Picks (August 31st)
So after months of speculating on this blog, I was not so surprised to see Andy Roddick announce that he will retire after the US Open.
Roddick has always struck me as the kind of man that wouldn't keep playing on the Tour without being competitive and he said so himself when he admitted he didn't want to just 'exist' week to week.
The immediate reaction to his retirement was one of disappointment as Roddick was one of the characters on the Tour that was not afraid to speak his mind and he was always fun to watch on the court.
But I can understand his frustrations in a season where he is no longer considered a genuine Grand Slam Winner, while he was struggling to even move on in the lesser tournaments. Losses to the likes of Steve Darcis and Jeremy Chardy on the North American hard courts would have strengthened the belief in his mind that the 'time was now' to finish his career.
It will be interesting to see where Roddick will fit in the history of tennis now we can begin to look back on his career. His one Grand Slam win at the US Open back in 2003 puts him with the elite to have played this sport, but his three losses at Finals in Wimbledon to Roger Federer will be the lasting legacy in my opinion.
He was so close to picking up that Wimbledon title in 2009 as he played a huge match before losing it 16-14 in the final set and he will always be associated with Federer having lost 4 Grand Slam Finals to the Swiss man.
However, the American public will have fond memories of a player that led the Davis Cup success of 2007 and the man who followed the great American players of the past and he remains the last American (male) to win a Grand Slam title.
Personally I am going to miss watching him play and I'll label him as being one of the more interesting players of the last decade. He was unfortunate not to win more than the one Grand Slam, but Roddick achieved plenty in his career and he will be missed on the Tour.
Yesterday I made three picks from Day 4 and was fortunate to see all three come off as winners making the first four days here very successful. I have made five outright picks ahead of the tournament and all five are still in the draw thanks to Angelique Kerber's win over Venus Williams last night.
Today I will play three more matches as I hope to build on the week so far.
Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: Ernests Gulbis came back from two sets down to beat Tommy Haas in the First Round, but he has had a couple of days to recover from that and I expect he is going to win this match against Steve Johnson.
Johnson was a winner over fellow American Rajeev Ram in the First Round and he did win a Challenger on the hard courts at Aptos a couple of weeks ago, but losses to the likes of Benjamin Becker and Igor Sijsling during this North American hard court swing do not inspire confidence.
The one real concern is that Gulbis is so up and down with his performances that you don't always know what you are going to get. Two of the last three seasons has seen the Latvian finish with a losing record on the Tour, but he is 14-16 this season and has a real chance to end with a winning record this time around.
However, the hard courts have generally seen Gulbis play his best tennis and he should be too strong in this match as long as he hasn't spent himself emotionally from the match against Haas.
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games v Brian Baker: The Brian Baker story has taken a detour over the last couple of months since Wimbledon as the American lost five of six matches since playing at SW19 before coming through the First Round against Jan Hajek.
Even the players that Baker has lost to in recent weeks have not exactly been a whose who list from the world of tennis and Janko Tipsarevic is a clear step up from those players.
Tipsy was very close to being knocked out in the First Round, but he was one of a number of players that recovered from a 2-0 deficit in sets to win through in five.
That match will give the Serb a boost while the staggered First Round here at the US Open will have given Tipsarevic enough recovery time ahead of this match.
I believe Tipsarevic will be a little too consistent for Baker in this one and I do expect him to come through in much simpler fashion than he did in the First Round. With the open third section of the Men's draw, the top 10 player will feel he can take advantage and I'll take him to cover the spread at odds against.
Andy Roddick - 2.5 games v Bernard Tomic: As we all know, this is potentially Andy Roddick's final match as a professional, but I think he will be a little too experienced for Bernard Tomic and will be able to extend his time a little more.
I don't know how long Roddick has been thinking of retirement, although it is clear from some of his peer's reactions that he had been thinking about it for some time. Now that he has made his decision, Roddick might just feel a little 'free' and I can see him turn back the clock and beat one of the younger generation that will look to fill his void on the Tour.
Tomic will look to grind out the win, but he doesn't have any really big shots, at least not consistently, that will see him blow Roddick off the court. That means the American will get his chances and the fans will make it a raucous atmosphere that he should thrive in.
While the retirement call has surprised people, we have seen American players cause surprises in their final tournaments here at Flushing Meadows. Even though Pete Sampras didn't call his retirement, his last tournament saw win the title here in New York, while Andre Agassi beat Marcos Baghdatis in his final tournament in a memorable match.
This could go four or five, but I am of the belief that Roddick extends his professional career for at least one more match.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Roddick - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 7-3, + 7.32 Units (18 Units Staked)
Roddick has always struck me as the kind of man that wouldn't keep playing on the Tour without being competitive and he said so himself when he admitted he didn't want to just 'exist' week to week.
The immediate reaction to his retirement was one of disappointment as Roddick was one of the characters on the Tour that was not afraid to speak his mind and he was always fun to watch on the court.
But I can understand his frustrations in a season where he is no longer considered a genuine Grand Slam Winner, while he was struggling to even move on in the lesser tournaments. Losses to the likes of Steve Darcis and Jeremy Chardy on the North American hard courts would have strengthened the belief in his mind that the 'time was now' to finish his career.
It will be interesting to see where Roddick will fit in the history of tennis now we can begin to look back on his career. His one Grand Slam win at the US Open back in 2003 puts him with the elite to have played this sport, but his three losses at Finals in Wimbledon to Roger Federer will be the lasting legacy in my opinion.
He was so close to picking up that Wimbledon title in 2009 as he played a huge match before losing it 16-14 in the final set and he will always be associated with Federer having lost 4 Grand Slam Finals to the Swiss man.
However, the American public will have fond memories of a player that led the Davis Cup success of 2007 and the man who followed the great American players of the past and he remains the last American (male) to win a Grand Slam title.
Personally I am going to miss watching him play and I'll label him as being one of the more interesting players of the last decade. He was unfortunate not to win more than the one Grand Slam, but Roddick achieved plenty in his career and he will be missed on the Tour.
Yesterday I made three picks from Day 4 and was fortunate to see all three come off as winners making the first four days here very successful. I have made five outright picks ahead of the tournament and all five are still in the draw thanks to Angelique Kerber's win over Venus Williams last night.
Today I will play three more matches as I hope to build on the week so far.
Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: Ernests Gulbis came back from two sets down to beat Tommy Haas in the First Round, but he has had a couple of days to recover from that and I expect he is going to win this match against Steve Johnson.
Johnson was a winner over fellow American Rajeev Ram in the First Round and he did win a Challenger on the hard courts at Aptos a couple of weeks ago, but losses to the likes of Benjamin Becker and Igor Sijsling during this North American hard court swing do not inspire confidence.
The one real concern is that Gulbis is so up and down with his performances that you don't always know what you are going to get. Two of the last three seasons has seen the Latvian finish with a losing record on the Tour, but he is 14-16 this season and has a real chance to end with a winning record this time around.
However, the hard courts have generally seen Gulbis play his best tennis and he should be too strong in this match as long as he hasn't spent himself emotionally from the match against Haas.
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games v Brian Baker: The Brian Baker story has taken a detour over the last couple of months since Wimbledon as the American lost five of six matches since playing at SW19 before coming through the First Round against Jan Hajek.
Even the players that Baker has lost to in recent weeks have not exactly been a whose who list from the world of tennis and Janko Tipsarevic is a clear step up from those players.
Tipsy was very close to being knocked out in the First Round, but he was one of a number of players that recovered from a 2-0 deficit in sets to win through in five.
That match will give the Serb a boost while the staggered First Round here at the US Open will have given Tipsarevic enough recovery time ahead of this match.
I believe Tipsarevic will be a little too consistent for Baker in this one and I do expect him to come through in much simpler fashion than he did in the First Round. With the open third section of the Men's draw, the top 10 player will feel he can take advantage and I'll take him to cover the spread at odds against.
Andy Roddick - 2.5 games v Bernard Tomic: As we all know, this is potentially Andy Roddick's final match as a professional, but I think he will be a little too experienced for Bernard Tomic and will be able to extend his time a little more.
I don't know how long Roddick has been thinking of retirement, although it is clear from some of his peer's reactions that he had been thinking about it for some time. Now that he has made his decision, Roddick might just feel a little 'free' and I can see him turn back the clock and beat one of the younger generation that will look to fill his void on the Tour.
Tomic will look to grind out the win, but he doesn't have any really big shots, at least not consistently, that will see him blow Roddick off the court. That means the American will get his chances and the fans will make it a raucous atmosphere that he should thrive in.
While the retirement call has surprised people, we have seen American players cause surprises in their final tournaments here at Flushing Meadows. Even though Pete Sampras didn't call his retirement, his last tournament saw win the title here in New York, while Andre Agassi beat Marcos Baghdatis in his final tournament in a memorable match.
This could go four or five, but I am of the belief that Roddick extends his professional career for at least one more match.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Roddick - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 7-3, + 7.32 Units (18 Units Staked)
Thursday, 30 August 2012
US Open Day 4 Picks (August 30th)
It has been a really busy day for me at work so I haven't been able to put down my picks any earlier than this.
Unfortunately, that means I won't be able to put down my usual breakdown of the matches and why I have picked the ones I have.
Tomorrow shouldn't be as hectic as today so I will be able to get back to the usual level of these posts.
MY PICKS: James Blake @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 10.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 4-3, + 2.12 Units (13 Units Staked)
Unfortunately, that means I won't be able to put down my usual breakdown of the matches and why I have picked the ones I have.
Tomorrow shouldn't be as hectic as today so I will be able to get back to the usual level of these posts.
MY PICKS: James Blake @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 10.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 4-3, + 2.12 Units (13 Units Staked)
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