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Showing posts with label GW24. Show all posts
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Saturday, 13 February 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (February 13-17)

The FA Cup Quarter Finals have been set and as a fan it is always nice to see Manchester United take another step towards ending their wait for silverware- I would love the opportunity to get to a FA Cup Semi Final and Final at Wembley Stadium, although I know I am clutching at straws to even believe that is a slight possibility.

The line up is also important for Fantasy Football players with GW29 seeing a number of matches postponed as many of the top flight clubs are involved in the FA Cup Quarter Finals that are scheduled to take place that weekend. It means upcoming DGWs although at the time of writing we don't have any confirmation of new dates, but I will get into that below.


Leicester City v Liverpool Pick: The opening Premier League fixture of the latest round of games is a big one which could have huge top four implications for both clubs through the remainder of the season.

Both Leicester City and Liverpool occupy one of those places at the moment, but the queue of teams chasing them down have built behind them and the gap will feel very tight for the losing team.

Brendan Rodgers' team have momentum after winning 2 of their last 3 games in all competitions and they have also won 3 of their last 4 here. However they remain just 4 points clear of 5th placed Chelsea with plenty of fixtures left on the schedule and the manager will be all too aware of the way Leicester City crumbled at the back end of last season.

That memory will be an experience builder for the players, but they have to show they can perform and the last three times they have faced Liverpool it has been one way traffic. One of the defeats came by a 2-1 scoreline, but the last two have seen Leicester City out-scored 7-0 and the visitors on Saturday have created a lot of chances in those wins.

This may not be the same Liverpool team with issues at the back and the team not looking as gelled together as we have come to expect, but Liverpool are still a very good team and they are looking for a big reaction to the embarrassing defeat against Manchester City last weekend.

In the last couple of away games played, Liverpool have dominated at Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United and so they will head to Leicester City with some belief they can turn things around. There is still some real quality in the final third and Liverpool are scoring goals away from home which makes them dangerous.

Leicester City could also be without at least two of the first choice defenders that would be selected, although they should be able to cause problems on the counter in this one.

Picking a winner is not easy, but goals have tended to flow when these teams have met and 8 of the last 10 have ended with at least three shared out. Neither have looked completely convincing at the back and I think an early goal on Saturday morning will open up this League game and could lead to an entertaining early fixture.


Crystal Palace v Burnley Pick: Both Crystal Palace and Burnley are no longer involved in anything but Premier League games between now and the middle of May and both are chasing the points to make sure they are playing more top flight football in the 2021/22 season.

They are on course to do that, but neither Roy Hodgson nor Sean Dyche will be allowing their players to rest on their laurels until they are mathematically certain to be keep their status as Premier League clubs.

With that in mind this has the makings of yet another tight game between two clubs who look to be well organised defensively. In recent weeks Burnley have been conceding more goals than they would like, but they are facing a Crystal Palace team missing the inspiration and magic that Wilfred Zaha brings to the field and that should make things 'easier' to some extent.

At the same time the best avenues towards goal that Burnley like to take are those which Crystal Palace will feel they can defend well enough, namely set pieces and crosses. It is no surprise that 7 of the last 8 between these clubs have ended with fewer than three goals shared out and the same number of fixtures have ended with at least one of the teams failing to score.

One goal certainly feels like it will bring the three points with it and I think that is what is likely going to happen on Saturday.

Burnley have scored a single goal in their last 4 games in all competitions and Crystal Palace have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 at home. It may give the home team the edge, but Burnley have won 2 of their last 4 here (losing the other 2) and a tight game is my feeling for this one more than knowing which way the points will eventually land.


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A couple of months ago this might have been a clash between clubs in similar positions as they enter this weekend, but back in December it was Tottenham Hotspur leading the way and Manchester City scrambling.

When these teams met out of the November international break, Tottenham Hotspur counter attacked with devastation to beat Manchester City 2-0, but Pep Guardiola seems to have learned from the experience. Since that result Manchester City are unbeaten in 22 games in all competitions and they have conceded a measly 6 goals.

Ruben Dias is a doubt for this fixture and Manchester City may also be missing their two defensive midfielders which may just take away some of the momentum that they have picked up in their 15 game winning run. With both Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero expected to miss out it just changes the feel of the team if they are without Dias, Fernandinho and Rodri, but Manchester City have shown they can overcome losses all season.

The question for Tottenham Hotspur is how much the FA Cup Fifth Round defeat at Everton has taken from the legs- the defending that day was embarrassing, but losing 5-4 in Extra Time would have been a real mental blow as one as a physically taxing one and Jose Mourinho will have to make some serious team selections to get the best out of his team.

Another defeat may have the manager focusing on the Cup competitions left as his best route back into the Champions League as it was in the first season as manager of Manchester United, but for now Tottenham Hotspur have to focus and try and stop the Manchester City machine from rolling to another win.

The lack of chances being created by Tottenham Hotspur in recent Premier League games is a concern, but Harry Kane was absent for much of those and his return is a big positive for the team. Even then it is hard to believe Jose Mourinho will set his side up to play in any other way that what we have become accustomed to seeing and that is sitting in deep and looking to counter Manchester City where they can.

Jose Mourinho has led Tottenham Hotspur to narrow home wins over Manchester City in both of the previous meetings between these clubs. In both Tottenham Hotspur had to ride their luck at times, but they will need to do a lot more of that with Manchester City in their current form and I just can't see them doing it in their current defensive shape.

It would be a surprise if Tottenham Hotspur open up too early, but Manchester City should be able to wear them down with the quality and confidence they have. The away goals have begun to flow, but Manchester City have been all about clean sheets at home and I think a narrow home win is most likely in this one as they continue to pressure their title rivals.


Brighton v Aston Villa Pick: A long Saturday of Premier League Football will come to an end on the south coast at the Amex Stadium where Brighton and Aston Villa will be looking to keep their good runs going.

There has been a touch more inconsistency about Aston Villa, but they have won 3 of their last 5 Premier League games and have had a week to prepare for this fixture.

Brighton had also been enjoying a solid unbeaten run, but they were undone very late on in their FA Cup Fifth Round tie at Leicester City. It did provide further signs that Brighton are still well organised at the back and have found the balance to be effective at both ends of the pitch, although a lack of goals continues to blight them.

They play some wonderfully pleasing football, but the final ball or the finish has let them down at times. However, Graham Potter will be pleased with what he has seen and he will believe his team can at least make things difficult for what has been an erratic Aston Villa team when it comes to the chance creation.

Dean Smith has done a wonderful job at Villa Park and his team are chasing European spots, but he will need his team to show a little more consistency down the stretch. Having a week to prepare will be a huge boost for the players that put in a huge effort to beat Arsenal last weekend, while Aston Villa have managed themselves defensively.

The last two League games between these clubs at the Amex Stadium have both ended 1-1 and I don't think that can be ruled out for a third time in a row. My feeling it is going to be tighter than the layers believe, as they are expecting at least three goals with that being an odds on quote, but games at the Amex Stadium have been tighter than that more often than not in recent weeks.

7 of the last 9 Premier League games in this Stadium have finished with less than three goals scored and while Aston Villa games have tended to feature goals, I think this is one which could be tight and competitive all the way through.


Southampton v Wolves Pick: These two will be sick of the sight of each other by the end of the 90 minutes played on Sunday as Southampton and Wolves meet for the second time in three days. It was Southampton who won the FA Cup game at Molinuex and Ralph Hasenhuttl was rewarded for selecting what looked the stronger team on the day, but I expect a better looking Wolves team in this one.

Ultimately it doesn't really matter what team Wolves select unless they can find some consistency in their play in the final third. They still have not managed to replace Raul Jimenez in the manner they would have liked and Wolves are a hard team to read.

You can understand why Southampton are the favourites because they feel a little more consistent than their visitors, but this is a team that has lost 4 Premier League games in a row. Some of those losses have been a little harsh on the performance, but they were also undone by a huge amount of injuries in the squad and look a little healthier now.

Southampton put in a huge effort to win the Cup tie at Molineux and are unlikely to make many changes, although they do have some players that can come in and freshen things up. Defensively they don't give a lot away and Wolves may need something special to score here, but Southampton will also be trying to break down what should be a more familiar personnel in the Wolves defence.

Goals may once again be hard to come by and the team who scores first will believe they can contain the other for long enough to secure the three points. I don't think there will be much in it, although I give a slight edge to Southampton who have been looking a little better than Wolves in recent weeks even if the results have not always made that clear.

One of the teams failing to score again after the Thursday Cup tie will be no surprise in the early Sunday kick off.


West Brom v Manchester United Pick: Roy Keane has been quite vocal in his criticisms of the Manchester United players and the attitude of consistently hearing the club were not in the title race when they were leading the way. The former Captain knows what it takes to win the biggest trophies at Old Trafford and I tend to agree that the lack of belief has been a real factor in some of the recent results which have seen United lose ground on rivals City.

Maybe the pressure being off will help, but for now the focus has to be making sure they are not allowing clubs to get too close when it comes to the top four race. That is now the main aim barring Manchester City having a collapse that most can't see coming and Manchester United can't afford to drop more points against a club mired in relegation trouble.

They did that at Old Trafford in the 1-2 defeat to Sheffield United, but I do have to say that The Blades have been in much better form over the last month.

I cannot say the same for West Brom who have had little improvement since Sam Allardyce came in as manager and the veteran looks to set to lose his record of never being relegated from the Premier League. It isn't just the fact that West Brom have not being earning points, but they have shown none of the hallmarks of an Allardyce team and defensively West Brom have been nothing short of a mess.

Mistakes happen, but it is the fatal ones West Brom continue to make which Sam Allardyce is finding impossible to erase. The players have also not felt comfortable playing at home all season, but under their new manager they have been conceding an alarming amount of goals and overall West Brom have conceded at least 10 more home goals than any other team in the Premier League.

West Brom have conceded at least twice in their last 6 home Premier League games, but more alarming is that the 2-2 draw with Fulham ended a run of at least three goals being conceded at The Hawthorns at 5 games. The Baggies have not really been competitive in those 5 defeats either and I think Manchester United should have too much for them as long as they are focused.

Winning games away from home has not been an issue, but Manchester United have rarely blown past opponents. Only 1 of their last 8 away games has seen Manchester United win by two or more goals, but I think this is a good chance to get back to the run they had been on during the middle of the 2020 calendar year and I think they will have too much for their hosts.

Extra Time on Tuesday is not great, but Manchester United have plenty of time to give their loving fans a strong St Valentine's Day gift.


Arsenal v Leeds United Pick: This has the makings of a really good Premier League game, but that is the case for most that Leeds United have been involved in this season.

Even when they have played at the traditional Big Six clubs, Marcelo Bielsa has set his team up to get on the front foot and cause problems for those teams. So far Leeds United have done that with a narrow loss at Liverpool followed by more comprehensive defeats at Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford and the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but Bielsa won't change his plans.

He has been rewarded with his Leeds United team putting plenty of away wins on the board and they are visiting an Arsenal team that is not of the level they were even three or four seasons ago.

Arsenal have been inconsistent at home and this is a team that can be got at, although the spaces Leeds United will leave behind are likely to be exploited by some talented younger players.

That should make it an interesting game and I would be surprised if Arsenal can extend their run of clean sheets at home to 5 games here. Teams have created chances against them and that is something that will encourage Leeds United.

It should be a decent watch on Sunday afternoon and the lack of draws in Arsenal home/Leeds United away games respectively suggest we will find a winner. Arsenal have just knuckled down a bit in recent weeks, but they still feel vulnerable and I do think Leeds United have the ability to earn a good result here.

The recent 1-3 win at Leicester City shows what Leeds United can do when at their best and I would not be surprised if they win this one. However keeping the draw on your side is probably the 'smarter' play in this game.


Everton v Fulham Pick: The late finish to the FA Cup Fifth Round tie will have drained some of the Everton legs and they may even be missing Lucas Digne and Dominic Calvert-Lewin who both picked up knocks in the victory over Tottenham Hotspur.

It was a victory though and that should mean a spring in the step as Everton look to close in on the top four places in the Premier League. Playing at home has been difficult for Everton who have needed Extra Time to win a couple of their FA Cup ties at Goodison Park, while they have not won any of their last 3 Premier League games here, but they are going up against an increasingly desperate Fulham team.

Scott Parker has made his team a little more difficult to beat and 4 away Premier League draws in a row underlines the point. They have drawn 3 of their last 4 League games overall, but Fulham continue to struggle for consistency in the final third and we are getting to a stage of the season where only wins will do.

For every point Fulham have been picking up, it seems their relegation rivals Burnley and Brighton have earned three big points to move further clear. That has put some pressure on Fulham who will be looking for a big result before facing a huge relegation six pointer at Turf Moor and this could be a pivotal week for the club.

Two wins would see Fulham have momentum and close in on those teams outside of the bottom three, but failure to win both would leave them in a desperate position. Scott Parker has to find the right balance between attack and defence but his team have been perhaps riding their luck through some of their recent away draws.

Everton would have felt more confident if Dominic Calvert-Lewin was leading the line, but in James Rodriguez, Richarlison and possibly Josh King leading the line I do think this Everton team have enough about them to win the game.

The side have only scored a single goal in 3 home Premier League games which is a concern, but Everton do create more chances than Fulham and I think they can earn a 13th home win in a row against this opponent.


West Ham United v Sheffield United Pick: There are two games on Monday afternoon and the first could have big implications at the top and bottom as West Ham United continue their surprising chase of a top four place and Sheffield United look for a morale boosting League win in their fight to avoid the drop.

Both teams are likely to come up short when it comes to these goals at the end of the season, but for now David Moyes and Chris Wilder are trying to motivate the players that are ready to go.

Injuries could play a key part in how far West Ham United can go, but they are hoping the likes of Michail Antonio will be available for selection on Monday. He is a hugely important part of the team for David Moyes, especially without a recognised back up, and the manager will be looking to get at least 60 minutes out of his player.

Jesse Lingard is back and he has given West Ham United some energy, although the absence of Angelo Ogbonna might take away the strong defensive numbers they have been producing. Even then it is hard to make a strong case for Sheffield United to expose any vulnerabilities with their struggles in the final third and this is a team that has really struggled away from home.

Defensively it feels like there is an opportunity against Sheffield United and I think The Hammers will nick the points. If they can get 60 minutes out of Michail Antonio I think the home team have the goals in the squad to do enough to hurt Sheffield United, while they are good enough defensively to earn a narrow victory.


Chelsea v Newcastle United Pick: A learning curve is moving forward at Stamford Bridge as the players become used to Thomas Tuchel and the manager understands what makes his squad tick. That has led to some decent, but unspectacular performances from Chelsea who have been more functional than amazing since their new manager has arrived at the club.

They have certainly looked more balanced and Chelsea have only conceded a single goal in their 5 games under Tuchel. That includes a solid 0-1 win at Barnsley on Thursday evening in the FA Cup Fifth Round with a much changed team, while Chelsea's only goal conceded under their German manager was a ridiculous error between Edouard Mendy and Antonio Rudiger at Bramall Lane.

Chelsea are not scoring a lot of goals, but they are doing enough in the final third and they should feel confident in getting the better of Newcastle United.

2 wins from 3 Premier League games will give Newcastle United some confidence, but they have lost Callum Wilson for a while and that leaves them a little short in the forward areas. There is some pace and quality in the squad that will have to be respected, but Newcastle United had not scored in 6 consecutive away games in all competitions before the win at Everton in their last away League game.

However, it was Callum Wilson who scored twice that day and his absence is likely to be felt. Newcastle United have a poor record at Stamford Bridge over the years too and I think Chelsea are likely to have enough to secure the three points behind their latest clean sheet under Thomas Tuchel.


Burnley v Fulham PickYou hear the term 'relegation six pointer' thrown around a little too freely at times, but there is no doubting the importance of this fixture between Burnley and Fulham. It is actually the first time the two clubs are meeting in the Premier League this season and both games are going to be hugely pivotal towards which Division they are playing in next season.

If Fulham are able to win at Turf Moor they will really feel there is some momentum behind them- the win at Everton on Sunday shows there is plenty of belief in the squad with the victory coming twenty-four hours after Burnley had extended their lead to 11 points over Fulham with a win at Crystal Palace.

That has to be hugely encouraging for Scott Parker and the Coaching staff, but they will also be well aware of how much more difficult things will look if they were to lose on Wednesday.

It would put Burnley in a position where they would begin to be feeling pretty safe if they are able to win, while keeping a distance to 17th placed Newcastle United as a safety net too. The win at Crystal Palace came out of a very good performance and Burnley dominated when hosting Brighton in their last League game here despite having to settle for the 1-1 draw.

A point would actually be a relatively decent outcome for Burnley with an 8 point gap over Fulham and another fixture ticked off the list. I don't think they will play for a draw, but Burnley are more likely of the two to sit back if it is level with 20 minutes to go and Fulham may find it hard to break down this opponent even though Ben Mee is going to be missing from the heart of the defence.

An early goal could really open this fixture up, but I don't think either manager will want to give too much away in the first half. Both teams can sometimes find it hard to create really good chances and I do have to note that both Burnley and Fulham have actually produced some decent defensive efforts of late.

The lack of goals can't be ignored and I don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility to see a fixture where at least one of the teams fails to hit the back of the net. A draw might not be the best result for Fulham, but it would keep them in touch with those teams above them, while I imagine Burnley will look to keep things tight as they have largely managed to do against Brighton and Crystal Palace in their last couple of League games.

This feels like a match that will see goals hard to come by and the 1-1 is perhaps the most dangerous score against the pick.


Everton v Manchester City PickNo wants to concede the Premier League title in February, but the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester City and Manchester United have only themselves to blame for falling so far behind Manchester City.

A win for the latter will mean they are 10 points clear at the top of the table with 14 League games to be played and Manchester City have put together a strong run at a time where others have not been able to keep up.

During that time they have beaten all of those teams mentioned aside from Leicester City and Manchester City are on a roll. Kevin De Bruyne gets injured and Ilkay Gundogan steps up, and even the injury to the latter which may force him to miss this game will see either Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva or Riyad Mahrez raise their game to fill in the gaps.

Kevin De Bruyne looks set to return before the end of the month and Gundogan may have only been a precautionary sub on Saturday. Manchester City thus look really strong and not many would rule them out on winning another domestic treble having done that in 2019, while Pep Guardiola could soon turn full attention to the Champions League if their domestic schedule is under control.

They look dangerous and Manchester City have made it a habit of beating Everton ever since the 4-0 loss suffered here in Pep Guardiola's first season in charge of the club. Manchester City have won the last 5 overall and their last 3 at Goodison Park with all of those three wins here coming by two or more goals.

Everton have really struggled for consistency in recent weeks too which makes it hard to believe they can cause too many concerns for the home team. Without the fans a trip here is not nearly as intimidating as it may be and Everton have not won any of their last 4 League games here, while they have lost the last 3.

Goals have been a problem and Everton don't do clean sheets which should give Manchester City a real edge. The last 2 League games here have seen Everton lose to Newcastle United and Fulham by the same 0-2 scoreline and Manchester City have been grinding down opponents both home and away.

The last 8 away wins for Manchester City have come by two or more goal margins and I think they will cover the handicap in another victory here.

MY PICKS: Leicester City-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals
Crystal Palace-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO
Manchester City to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Brighton-Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals
Southampton-Wolves Both Teams to Score- NO
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Leeds United + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Everton
West Ham United & Under 4.5 Goals
Chelsea Win to Nil
Burnley-Fulham Both Teams to Score NO
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 24
This is not a normal season for clubs, players, fans and Fantasy Football players and it does mean we are perhaps not going to have the big DGWs we tend to see at the end of the season.

Instead we may see a few small DGWs through the remainder of the season with the biggest one left likely to be in GameWeek 26 when a number of the matches scheduled for GW29 (FA Cup Quarter Final weekend) will be moved forward. That is largely down to the limited time between now and the end of the season while needing to add in the European competitions which resume this week and the possibility for further postponements for teams that go deeper in the FA Cup and we might even only get very short notice of games being added to weeks.

GameWeek 24 is actually the latest Double GameWeek coming up with four teams playing twice and the likes of Manchester City and Everton do have other games that need to be rescheduled having both made it through to the FA Cup Quarter Final where they will meet one another.

They meet in the Premier League this week as they play twice along with Burnley and Fulham and I had already kept some of those players in my squad- as I have mentioned here before, I believed the Premier League would look to re-schedule games where they could this season as we remain unsure whether any more clubs will be affected by Covid-19 as both Newcastle United and Aston Villa have been already this season.

I am a touch surprised the Aston Villa vs Everton game that needs to be played somewhere wasn't added to GameWeek 25 alongside the DGW for both Leeds United and Southampton coming up.

And now we can begin to guess how the Premier League is going to deal with the eleven confirmed postponed games that have to be re-arranged.

As I have said, I think GW26 is going to be the biggest DGW left on the schedule and I expect seven additional matches to be set which means fourteen of the twenty Premier League teams could play twice that week.

With the way the FA Cup Quarter Final line up has worked out, Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur is almost certainly going to be added to that weekend to make four Premier League games to be played- I am likely to use my Free Hit that week and keep the Wild Card in hand for the weeks ahead.

That means there are likely to be ten games left to be re-scheduled and I can see the upcoming weeks having a look like this:

DGW24
Burnley v Fulham
Everton v Manchester City

DG25
Leeds United v Southampton

DGW26
Burnley v Leicester City
Crystal Palace v Manchester United
Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur
Liverpool v Chelsea
Manchester City v Southampton
Sheffield United v Aston Villa
West Brom v Everton

DGW27
Aston Villa v Everton
Manchester City v Wolves

GW29
Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur

In this case only Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton would have be placed in the schedule, but it would mean there are at least two free weeks in which it could be played after Easter now that Spurs are out of the FA Cup. And importantly it would mean that Jose Mourinho's men won't have the fixture pile up like their manager has been worrying about even if Everton were to beat Manchester City in the FA Cup Quarter Final as it would mean a maximum of two Tottenham Hotspur games that need to be re-arranged and with two free midweeks left in the calendar after the March international break.

You could swap the Manchester City matches with Southampton and Wolves in DGW26 and 27, but something like that schedule can't be ruled out.

I certainly think the teams that are still in the FA Cup and playing European Football will have their original GW29 fixtures moved forward because of the limited time available if those clubs are to go deep into their respective European competitions and progress in the FA Cup, but the Premier League is not under the same pressure when it comes to moving the matches involving clubs that are not involved in Europe.

For example Everton have been picked to play Southampton in DGW26 on Monday Night Football- with that in mind Manchester City could face Wolves that midweek instead and play Southampton the following week, while Everton's trip to West Brom has a number of additional weeks in which it can be guaranteed to be play even if The Toffees were to progress as far as the FA Cup Final.

It is something to consider and certainly something I am thinking about with the expected DGW26 looking the best time to play the Bench Boost.

My worse case scenario right now is that eight of my fifteen players would be playing twice that week, but I was also hoping the Premier League would have decided where they were going to re-schedule a number of those fixtures before the deadline for GW24.

But at the same time I think the Free Transfers can focus on the following teams who should be playing twice in GW26: Aston Villa, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Sheffield United and Tottenham Hotspur who I feel are most likely to be in that spot.

If you can carry a transfer I would do that, but I pushed one forward last week and need to make a play, although I am comfortable with the squad as it is and where I am positioned while I wait for the fixture re-schedule to be announced by the Premier League.

I have five players on the DGW this week, which is a bonus, and I don't want to change the look of the team too far with the Bench Boost Chip looking an important one to play now.

Tuesday, 21 January 2020

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (January 21-23)

This is the last really short turnaround in the Premier League this season and that limited gap between two rounds of Fantasy Football rounds can be massively unhelpful.

More on that later, but beforehand you can see my Picks from the latest round of games to be played.


Aston Villa v Watford Pick: When teams separated by a relegation side are meeting in any League it is going to be a big game and it is no different in the Premier League when Aston Villa in 18th place host Watford in 17th place. Games are beginning to run down now and so both teams will understand the importance of the fixture and a tense evening could be in the offing at Villa Park.

Tense is one thing, but neither Aston Villa nor Watford have to have a lot of belief in the way they have been defending to think they can sit in and perhaps play for a point. In all honesty a point is not the greatest result for either club who will see games like this one as very important to earn the three points that can begin to build a significant gap to the bottom three.

Aston Villa have been decent enough going forward even without Wesley to lead the line and they will feel they can get something from this Watford defence that has offered up one or two big chances per game.

However Watford have also looked a lot better going forward since Nigel Pearson took over as manager and an in-form Troy Deeney will feel he can bully Aston Villa much like he did in the home win over them at the end of December. It was Deeney's missed penalty that cost Watford the three points in the goalless draw with Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday, but the overall performance was very good and keeping those levels up will make them hard to beat.

The visitors are actually the slight favourites here, but Aston Villa have won 5 of their last 9 games here in all competitions and played well enough at Brighton to deserve respect. It does feel like a fixture that could easily end up 2-1 either way and the chances that both teams have been creating and allowing in recent games makes backing over 2.5 goals look the play.


Bournemouth v Brighton Pick: All the signs are pointing to Bournemouth being a prime relegation contender, but one win on Tuesday will shift the entire mindset of this club. That is what makes this a difficult fixture to predict and especially more so when you think of how poorly Brighton have travelled for much of the season.

The Seagulls are also coming off a disappointing 1-1 home draw with Aston Villa and they are very much in the relegation dogfight too.

So while I can understand why Brighton are favourites, I don't think their away form makes them a team I would want to back. On the other hand Bournemouth look short of confidence and have been decimated by injuries which makes them unappealing and I do think there are better options out there this midweek.


Crystal Palace v Southampton Pick: Both Crystal Palace and Southampton have to be pretty happy with the way their seasons are shaping up in the Premier League and both will believe they can win a fixture like this one.

Both put in big efforts on Saturday as Crystal Palace fought back for a point at Manchester City at the same time as Southampton were blowing a 2-0 lead over Wolves in an eventual 2-3 home defeat.

The short turnaround is a concern and both managers have accepted this is the last really difficult moment of the seasons for them when the fixtures come thick and fast. Crystal Palace will have ten days off after this game and then will soon join the first ever Winter Break in the English top flight, but the injury list is a long one and Crystal Palace have been struggling to turn draws into wins.

At the same time they have been very difficult to beat so there is a challenge for the in-form Southampton team who had won 5 of 6 before their 2-3 loss to Wolves. The Saints have won 3 in a row away from home and they have been scoring plenty of goals in recent games on their travels which makes them an interesting favourite here.

Add in the fact that Southampton have won on their last 2 visits to Selhurst Park and I think the visitors will have their backers, but Crystal Palace won't roll over for them. Roy Hodgson's team are well set up, and they have found goals even through their injury crisis and 4 of their last 5 Premier League games have ended with both teams finding the net.

That happened the first time these teams met this season and I can see that being the outcome of this one too.


Everton v Newcastle United Pick: The 1-1 draw at West Ham United might not have been the perfect result for Everton, but this is a team that continues to create chances and produce a lot of shots on goal under Carlo Ancelotti. Some will point out back to back 1-0 home wins as a sign that Everton are doing things in a different way, but they have created a lot of chances in both games against Burnley and Brighton and only a lack of composure in the final third has prevented Everton from winning by wider margins.

They should continue to create chances against a Newcastle United team that put in a huge effort to see off Chelsea on Saturday. Steve Bruce is finally being respected by the fans and this is a team that has proven they can be a stubborn one to face whether you visit them or host them.

Wolves found that out as they had to settle for a 1-1 home draw with Newcastle United despite having the majority of chances on the day. A stubborn team like The Magpies can't be allowed to hang around and build confidence one they dig in so the onus is on Everton to take the game to them.

I do think Newcastle United can cause one or two problems of their own, but the short turn from Saturday to Tuesday does work against them. They put in a big effort against Chelsea and the squad is already plenty stretched and I think Everton can take advantage even if both Richarlison and Gylfi Sigurdsson are absent again.

Everton have a good recent home history against Newcastle United and I think they can beat them here. They've created enough chances to believe they can win in a game featuring two or more goals and that is the play even if the last two games here have both ended 1-0.


Sheffield United v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League title race might be over if we are being realistic, but Manchester City can't allow malaise to set in if they are going to have a big season over the next several months. Pep Guardiola has made it clear that he expects his team to keep performing and putting points on the board, and I do think there are going to be one or two players who are going to have to prove to the manager that they can be a part of the long-term project here.

This is far from an easy game for Manchester City who beat Sheffield United 2-0 at home last month, but in a fixture where the visitors had plenty of good chances of their own.

Sheffield United have bounced back in their last 3 games during which time they have won twice and they are a team who will look to play their football against this vulnerable Manchester City defence.

On the other hand it will be difficult to contain Manchester City too considering they have scored two or more goals in 8 away games in a row. This is a team who create a lot of chances, but who have been let down by their poor defensive record and I think that may show up in this one too.

Manchester City have only had 2 clean sheets in their last 12 away games and that should give the home team an opportunity. It is almost impossible to imagine Manchester City failing to score so backing both teams to score looks the way to go with this one.


Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: The big Premier League game on Tuesday evening comes from West London as two clubs who will still be hoping to finish in the Champions League places meet for the second time this season.

Arsenal will be looking for revenge having blown a 1-0 lead against Chelsea in the eventual 1-2 defeat last month at the Emirates Stadium. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's absence is a bitter blow for Arsenal who have created chances under Mikel Arteta, but who have continued to struggle defensively.

Those issues at the back can be exploited by Chelsea even if they have perhaps struggled for consistency in the final third. Frank Lampard has been frustrated by the missed chances his team have had in recent games and there is talk of reinforcements being brought in to aid what is a very young squad of players.

Tammy Abraham has shown he can lead the line for Chelsea, but he is being asked to play a lot of minutes and I think it would help if Lampard was convinced by his other options. Christian Pulisic is injured which means Chelsea are relying on players to find some consistency that have yet to show they are there yet.

However Chelsea do create chances and I think they will be able to do that against this Arsenal team. The first goal will be key for Chelsea to prevent them from being bogged down as has been the case in some games at Stamford Bridge this season.

Chelsea have won their last couple of games here and Arsenal have struggled to turn draws into wins away from home. The Gunners haven't lost too many games of late, but they have not been at their best as they are getting used to a new manager and system. Being without their biggest goal-threat is a real blow too and so backing Chelsea to win a game featuring two or more goals looks an appealing play.


Leicester City v West Ham United Pick: It is one thing for Leicester City to have lost a bit of form after what was a tremendous run a couple of months ago, but even then it is hard to believe they would lose games to Southampton and Burnley once they took the lead.

In both of those Premier League games Leicester City have scored the first goal, but both times they have been on the wrong end of a 2-1 defeat. The defeat at Turf Moor was largely down to the Jamie Vardy missed penalty while the teams were level at 1-1 in the second half, but the manager has to be frustrated with the slight loss of confidence which is leading to bad decisions.

Leicester City were the better team on Sunday, but failures in the final third coupled with some defensive mistakes means they have suffered consecutive losses. At least the teams below them have not really been able to take advantage so Leicester City remain firmly in control of one of the Champions League places on offer in the Premier League, but Brendan Rodgers will want to get the Premier League back on track before heading into two important Cup ties away from home.

They have struggled in recent home games with a single win in their last 5 at the King Power Stadium, but facing West Ham United should give Leicester City a chance to bounce back. The Foxes don't have a very good recent record against their visitors at home, but Leicester City will have noted the amount of chances West Ham United have continued to give up and I think they can exploit those.

David Moyes will accept his team are just short at the moment with key injuries hurting them, while he also will want to put a stamp on this squad during the upcoming Winter Break. The really busy period of the season is behind them which means Moyes can work on the system in training, but this game might come at the wrong time for that.

West Ham United have been in decent form under David Moyes, but this is a tough place to play. They might cause one or two problems for Leicester City considering the lack of confidence in the home ranks, but I believe Brendan Rodgers will get a reaction from his team who can't continue to be as loose in the final third as they have been in recent games.

The home team will likely need to score at least twice to win this fixture on current form and I think they can do that.


Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City Pick: There has been some good play from Tottenham Hotspur in the final third in recent games, but the lack of clinical finishing has been hurting them in the last couple of fixtures.

A home loss to Liverpool and a goalless draw at Watford means Tottenham Hotspur have yet to score a League game since Harry Kane was ruled out until April. It will be a major concern for Jose Mourinho, although I am sure he is going to be pleased with the clean sheet earned against Watford thanks to a Troy Deeney penalty miss.

Jose Mourinho will be looking for his team to build on the point at Watford when they face bottom club Norwich City who have looked like a team destined for a return to the Championship. Daniel Farke's men did beat Bournemouth on Saturday which will give them a huge boost in confidence, but even then they are 6 points from safety and looking like a very weak away team.

Norwich City are one of the poorest teams I have seen visiting Old Trafford in some time and they were beaten 4-0 by Manchester United. They have lost 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League and I do think Tottenham Hotspur can get back to winning ways in the League for the first time since Boxing Day.

Backing the home team to cover the Asian Handicap is a little dangerous considering their lack of form, but I think Tottenham Hotspur should have too much for this Norwich City team. Defensively Spurs are struggling, but I think they will make better use of the chances they create in this one and I will back them to secure the three points with a relatively comfortable win.


Manchester United v Burnley Pick: This is a big moment for Manchester United as the tension builds around the club with the fans unhappy with the continued abuse of the way things are run. It is clear that this is a commercial juggernaut rather than one that is focused on winning on the field and the likes of the Glazer family and Ed Woodward are going to continue to hear voices of dissension.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer wants the fans to get behind the team and not to become divided with the owners again, but the manager has some questions to answer especially after the injury suffered by Marcus Rashford. The decision to play him against Wolves looks negligent at best and it is going to cost Rashford the majority of the remainder of the campaign which should also hit Solskjaer hard.

Failing to get back into the Champions League will be a massive blow to the current manager and others have found their time ended at Old Trafford when missing what looks the most basic of asks.

Being without Rashford looks like it could prevent Manchester United doing that, but they have to bounce back on Wednesday when hosting Burnley who are off a big win on Sunday. Sean Dyche's men had a big second half reaction to come from behind and beat Leicester City, although they did need a Jamie Vardy missed penalty to edge to the important three points.

There are still concerns defensively and Burnley have allowed teams to create too many chances against them which can be exposed by Manchester United who have won 4 of their last 5 at Old Trafford. Again losing Rashford hurts, but there is enough attacking talent to get on top of a Burnley team who have been hammered at Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea over the last few weeks.

Burnley do have a decent record at Old Trafford in recent seasons with 3 draws in a row here- in fact Burnley have been leading 0-2 in each of their last two visits and Manchester United have scored injury time levellers on both occasions.

Manchester United will be vulnerable having had confidence dented in the defeat to Liverpool, but I think they can bounce back at home. They should create enough chances to win the game and it should be enough to cover the Asian Handicap as long as Manchester United can get their noses in front in this one.


Wolves v Liverpool Pick: The Premier League title race is all but over, although Jurgen Klopp will be looking for his side to try and secure that trophy in record time which will then give Liverpool a chance to attack the other Cup competitions they are involved in.

I hate to say it, but Liverpool can cement their place in history if they can defend their Champions League title in a season where they can match Manchester United's stunning efforts in 1999 when winning the real treble.

That has to be a focus of this group of players and Liverpool are showing little mercy to their floundering title challengers by continuing to rack up the wins. At times they have rode their luck, but earlier this season they were showing a sign of Champions by winning games when things were not breaking for them.

Both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur did have some glaring openings against Liverpool without troubling the scoreboard and that has to be a slight concern for Jurgen Klopp. Wolves did the same when these teams met at Anfield last month and this is a team off a confidence boosting 2-3 win at Southampton as they recovered from 2-0 down.

Of course Nuno Espirito Santo will know this is a much tougher game for his Wolves team, but they are also about to enter a ten day break and that should mean all of the players give their all. Motivation won't be lacking as they look to become the first team to beat Liverpool this season and I do think the performance at Anfield is encouraging enough to believe Wolves can cause problems.

Keeping Liverpool out looks a long-shot though and the best play may be backing both teams to hit the back of the net in this one. If Anthony Martial showed more composure when through on goal, Manchester United would have done that and Tottenham Hotspur had at least two gilt-edged chances to score in their own loss to Liverpool earlier this month.

The 6 clean sheets in a row will be a boost for Liverpool, but both teams should have the chances to hit the back of the net on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Southampton Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Sheffield United-Manchester City Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.70 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wolves-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

January 2019/20: 2-6, - 8.78 Units (16 Units Staked, - 54.88% Yield)
December 2019/2016-14, - 0.58 Units (60 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
November 2019/209-16, - 12.66 Units (50 Units Staked, - 25.32% Yield)
October 2019/2016-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/2013-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/2014-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)




Fantasy Football GameWeek 24
The first Double GameWeek of the season is ready to go for those of us who play Fantasy Football and the two teams who will be involved are Liverpool and West Ham United.

I had already begun preparation for that by bringing in Roberto Firmino to join Sadio Mane, and there will be plenty ready to use their Triple Captain card this week. I am not one of those with the week between games meaning there could be some rotations in the squad especially with a FA Cup game sandwiched in-between, although I do expect two largely strong teams to be picked.

Players like Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andrew Robertson and the front three will all be well backed I am sure, but I do think those could be rotated which makes the Triple Captain chip one I am going to keep in hand.

Unsurprisingly one of my two transfers this week are going to be used to bring in a third Liverpool player. The injury to Marcus Rashford means I can't bring in a second West Ham United player (I don't want a striker from their team considering the fixtures), but I had to change Rashford at the high value he is.

The player I have targeted for Rashford is Troy Deeney who has been in hot form for Watford, a team scoring plenty of goals for Nigel Pearson. He is on Penalties for his team and the next three games are favourable for the English striker and means I can shore up other areas of the squad in February.

The second choice might surprise as I have gone with Alisson to replace Paulo Gazzaniga- my thinking here is that I am going to have to spend a transfer to replace him by the time the next GameWeek rolls around and I want to make changes to the midfield options by then, while I also believe the Liverpool goalkeeper is about as secure a choice you can have along with Virgil Van Dijk in the backline for both Premier League games to be played.

Of course I am not overlooking how well the two full backs have played and how much of an attacking return they can offer as well as defensive points, but for the long-term health of my squad the replacement of Tottenham Hotspur's goalkeeper seems better especially with Hugo Lloris likely to return soon. It is a decision that leaves plenty in the bank to upgrade the likes of Pablo Fornals in the next GameWeek too.

My GameWeek 24 Team
Alisson- plays twice within this GW.

Serge Aurier- home game against Norwich City.

Harry Maguire- home game against Burnley, although potential of being partnered by Phil Jones is not very encouraging.

Caglar Soyuncu- another team playing at home as Leicester City host West Ham United.

Sadio Mane (C)- easy choice with two games to be played, although I held off activating the Triple Captain chip.

Kevin De Bruyne- a huge influence in the Manchester City midfield.

Jack Grealish- continues to be single handedly trying to pull Aston Villa out of the bottom three.

Pablo Fornals- doesn't seem to be in David Moyes' plans, but plays twice this GW.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin- home game against Newcastle United and scored twice against them earlier this season.

Troy Deeney- in form and also the Watford penalty taker.

Roberto Firmino- brought in a couple of weeks ago for this DGW.

Bench- Michael McGovern, James Ward-Prowse, John Lundstram, Federico Fernandez