Following on from my NFC Breakdown post, this is my AFC version. As I mentioned in the NFC post, I am going to put up my ante-post picks on Thursday morning.
Week 1 Picks will begin on Thursday for the Green Bay-New Orleans season opener, and then I will have one post for Sunday games and one post for the two Monday Night Football games we have this week.
College Football picks will also begin to be made on Thursday for the Oklahoma State-Arizona game and I will then have one post covering my picks made for the Saturday games.
AFC
AFC East
New England Patriots: The New England Patriots made some decent moves in the offseason and look set to be a real threat in the AFC again. They signed Chad Ochocinco from Cincinnati and also brought in troubled Albert Haynesworth from Washington.
Ochocinco should provide the big play if he can get on the same page as Tom Brady and the rumours are that the Pats are lining up Randy Moss to come back after trading him away last season.
Albert Haynesworth will line up alongside Vince Wilfork and could cause carnage as the Pats try to protect a soft Secondary that was exposed at times last year.
Tom Brady was the MVP last season in the regular season and I expect the Pats to win the Division again.
New York Jets: The biggest opposition to the Pats will come from the loud-mouthed New York Jets who have once again talked about winning the SuperBowl. Rex Ryan has got the Defense in great shape, but the key could be how Plaxico Burress can get on after being signed in the offseason to help the Offense.
Mark Sanchez may also be given the chance to throw the ball a little more after the Jets relied heavily on their running game in the last 2 seasons.
They failed to sign Nnamdi Asomugha in the free agency market, but still have Darrelle Revis, arguably the best CB in the NFL and I expect the Jets will be playing postseason football again.
Miami Dolphins: I am a Miami Dolphin fan, but I am not holding out too much hope for the season.
After flirting with Jim Harbaugh, the Dolphins made themselves look like a joke by extending Tony Sparano's contract and the failure to bring in a QB means this team will be struggling.
The Defense is the more effective unit and could keep the Dolphins in games, but a lack of a pass rush outside of Cameron Wake means they are going to struggle this year and miss the Play Offs again.
Buffalo Bills: I was very surprised when the Bills traded away Lee Evans to the Baltimore Ravens, and did not bring in a QB for the new season. They played teams tough last season, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the answer and they could be in line to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes in April.
The best chance of the Bills moving out of the basement in the East is if they can hand the Dolphins 2 defeats in their meetings.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers: This Steelers team is loaded with talent, but it will be interesting to see how they respond to their SuperBowl defeat last season, as previous years have seen them miss the Play Offs when reaching the big game.
However, they had won their last 2 appearances in the big game so this defeat in February may have lit a fire under the team to perform well.
The team looks built on both sides of the ball to go well this season and I think they will win the Division.
Baltimore Ravens: As has been the case for many seasons now, the Baltimore Ravens will be chasing Pittsburgh all the way in the Division.
They have upgraded the Offense with the capture of Lee Evans, although the losses of Todd Heap and Derrick Mason may not help Joe Flacco who would have been used to them as safety blankets.
Ray Rice should have another big season at RB, while there is nothing I can say about the Defense that no one knows already.
They did have a few problems in the Secondary last season, but that is an area the team has resolved to improve and they too should be reaching the postseason.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns are a team in progress and should once again finish behind the big two teams in the Division. They showed plenty of promise last season with big wins over New England and New Orleans and they also pushed the Steelers in a game that was settled late.
Colt McCoy should improve in his 2nd season and I can see the Browns surprising some teams, but they are still a work in progress and finishing 3rd in the Division is the best they can hope for.
Cincinnati Bengals: While the Browns are a team in progress, the Bengals are just beginning a journey that has seen them lose Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco in the off-season.
That means they will be starting with Andrew Dalton and AJ Green, two rookies in key positions on the Offensive side of the ball.
The Defense also lost Jonathan Joseph at CB and it is going to be a tough season all round for this team.
Marvin Lewis guided them to 4-12 last season with Palmer, Ochocinco and Terrell Owens... I think they will do well to reach that number of wins again this year.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts: The team is getting older, but more worrying is the status of Peyton Manning who has not recovered from his neck surgery as expected.
The team brought in Kerry Collins as a veteran QB and could begin the season with him.
The bottom line for the Colts is this- if Manning misses significant time, they will not be making the Play Offs. The Defense can be stout on occasions, but a Manning-less Offense will struggle to put up the points to cover any deficiencies.
Houston Texans: This is a talented team that may be ready to finally push their way into the postseason. The Offense is loaded with playmakers from Matt Schaub (QB) to Andre Johnson (WR) and Arian Foster (RB).
Foster may miss the first month of the season, but the Texans are still expected to be capable of putting up points. The question is whether the Defense can actually create some stops?
Wade Phillips has been brought in as Defensive Co-Ordinator and I expect he will do good things for this unit. The signing of Jonathan Joseph is a huge upgrade in the Secondary, while the Run Defense is fairly strong.
The Texans will not have a better chance to win the South.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans fired Jeff Fisher in the offseason and also released Vince Young as they get ready for a new era in Nashville. Matt Hasselbeck will be given the keys to the Offense for the season and Chris Johnson has returned to the team to provide a real spark at RB.
The Defense is capable of producing big efforts, but over the course of the season I expect them to struggle as the transitional period continues.
The Titans will do well to finish 3rd in the Division.
Jacksonville Jaguars: In a surprising turn of events, David Garrard was released on Tuesday meaning the QB for the new season will be Luke McCown. There just seems to be a lack of playmakers on both sides of the ball, while the biggest star, Maurice Jones-Drew, looks to be hampered at the moment.
Jack Del Rio's job was under pressure at the end of last season, but he was given one more chance... Unfortunately, I think the Jags are going to struggle this season and Del Rio will not be here this time next year.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs were the surprise winners of the AFC West last season, but I think their defeat to the Baltimore Ravens in the Play Offs shows there is still a way to go at Arrowhead.
The signing of Steve Breaston gives the team a little more options on Offense but I am not sold on Matt Cassel at QB.
The team also took advantage of a ridiculously weak schedule last season and won't have the same benefits this year. Finishing above 0.500 will be an achievement.
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are an annual regular season disappointment, starting poorly and just about making it into the Play Offs as a dangerous team- that all caught up with them last season.
Phillip Rivers is one of the best QBs in the NFL and will benefit from playing a full season with Vincent Jackson.
Bob Sanders (if he can stay healthy) and Takeo Spikes should improve the Defense and Corey Liuget is going to be a beast in the run Defense.
The Chargers look poised to reach the Play Offs, but they will not want a slow start this year.
Denver Broncos: After spending a lot of time thinking about trading away Kyle Orton, it seems Denver will be starting with him at QB.
Josh McDaniels killed the roster by trading away some huge pieces so this looks a transitional season for the Broncos.
Von Miller has looked good and should get plenty of opportunities to sack the QB with Elvis Dumervil on the other side, and there has been talk of double digit sacks for Von Miller.
Denver should play plenty of teams tough, but will do well to finish higher than 3rd in the Division.
Oakland Raiders: The Oakland Raiders had their best season since 2002 and decided to fire their Head Coach in response.
Losing Nnamdi Asomugha could really have a bad effect on this team as a whole as the Defense is likely to have a fall off in play.
Darren McFadden and Michael Bush should provide enough impetus to make the Raiders dangerous, but I think they will end in a familiar position of recent seasons at under 0.500
WINNERS
AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
Wild Cards: New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens
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Showing posts with label Breakdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Breakdown. Show all posts
Wednesday, 7 September 2011
NFL NFC Breakdown
With the NFL just days away, and with our own football currently in the middle of an international break, this seems like a good time to get writing about the upcoming American Football season.
I was worried we wouldn't see any games played this season, but thankfully the labour dispute was resolved and the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints will be good to go on Thursday night.
I have decided to have a brief look at the two Conferences in different posts, just to get an idea of how teams are likely to play this season and I will post my ante-post picks on Thursday morning.
NFC
NFC EAST
Where else to start but what was recently the most competitive Division in the NFL let alone the NFC. This year it doesn't seem to be the case with one team looking head and shoulders above their rivals.
Philadelphia Eagles: If you don't know what the Philadelphia Eagles have been doing this off-season, you need to get your head back in the NFL game. They have made some big plays in the free agency market as they get a team together that is geared for winning now and the SuperBowl is the aim.
Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have come in to sure up the iffy Secondary from last season while Jason Babin is sure to help providing the burst to attack opposition QBs. The Defense may have to play aggressively to cover up the short comings that remain in the middle of the field, with the weakness being at Linebacker and Safety.
Michael Vick will be under a different sort of pressure this season with expectations vastly increased following his performances last season. The Eagles will be hoping he can steer clear of injury, something he is susceptible to with his style of play. Vince Young will be backing him up, while Ronnie Brown has come in from Miami to back up LeSean McCoy.
The Eagles look the team to beat in this Division.
New York Giants: I would have been favouring the New York Giants to be the closest team to the Eagles, but injuries have decimated the Defense during the pre-season. Eli Manning may be a SuperBowl winning QB, but I am not convinced with him and he seems a little too erratic in terms of performances for me.
The Giants could have a decent season if they avoid any further injuries, but the NFL is not that forgiving and I think they will fall away come November.
Dallas Cowboys: This is an interesting team that does not have the expectation of last season that crushed their Play Off hopes before the season got to November.
Tony Romo is back at QB and I expect Dez Bryant will improve on last years rookie performance. The biggest problem for the Cowboys last season was their suspect Secondary and they don't seem to have improved in that department.
However, Rob Ryan comes in as Defensive Co-Ordinator and I expect he will use enough variations and schemes to confuse the opposition enough that they cannot take full advantage of their shortcomings.
I expect the Cowboys will go close for a Wild Card spot at best.
Washington Redskins: Mike Shanahan's rebuilding of this once proud franchise will continue this season and I expect things will not improve their 6-10 record from last season.
There are signs that things are on the way up for Redskins fans, but seeing either John Beck or Rex Grossman lead the Offense is enough to put anyone off. Donovan McNabb was traded to Minnesota so I don't really expect this team to be one to hang 30-40 points on teams.
The Defense is likely to keep the team in some games, but I think the Skins will find it tough in this Division to keep up with some high octane Offenses and they are destined to finish bottom of the East this season... However, things are at least beginning to look brighter for the future.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: The SuperBowl Champions may not have made a lot of free agency moves, but they have got a lot of players back from injury and look more than capable of making another run for the big one. Aaron Rodgers is an exceptional QB and he has plenty of weapons on the Offensive side of the ball that I can see them putting up lots of points.
The Defense is still solid, although they did miss out bringing in Nnamdi Asomugha in the off-season. The Pack look an all round good team and I expect they will be participating in the postseason and they could go deep.
Chicago Bears: The Chicago Bears had a better season than expected last season but the reigning North Champions are not being touted as having the same impact this year. The Defense is now another year older, while doubts remain over the abilities of Jay Cutler to lead the team on the Offense.
The trade of Greg Olsen to the Carolina Panthers was a strange move, and they may be hoping the Mike Martz Offense can spark a revival in Roy Williams who came in after spending time with the Dallas Cowboys.
This is a tough Division and it may be hard for Lovie Smith's troop to make it back to the postseason.
Detroit Lions: For the first time in an absolute age, the Lions look like having a really bright future. The Defense has been upgraded again from last season, when they shut down the Packers in both Divisional matches, and they have a real chance to make some noise in the NFC IF they can keep Matt Stafford healthy.
Stafford looks like a quality QB in the making, but his first 2 seasons have been decimated by injury. He showed enough promise in the games he did play to suggest the Lions have a good future to look forward to, especially with Calvin Johnson as one of the top WRs in the game.
I see an improvement for the squad this season, but whether that is good enough to get a Wild Card spot is yet to be determined and could rest on Stafford's injury issues.
Minnesota Vikings: A turbulent 2010 for the Vikings shows no real sign of improvement this season in my opinion. Donovan McNabb looks like a QB that doesn't have a lot left in the tank, while Sidney Rice has moved on to Seattle.
The Defense is a year older and there will be a lot of pressure on Adrian Peterson to keep the team driving forward.
The Vikings were built to 'win now' when bringing in Brett Favre in 2009, and that window has now closed with a transitional season in the offing.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: The Atlanta Falcons' deficiencies were shown up by the Packers in the Play Offs last season and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back. The team won a lot of close games and that means a slight change in fortune could see them taking several steps back.
There is a lot of talent in the team from QB Matt Ryan to WR Roddy White to DE John Abraham. However, Michael Turner may just have lost a half-step this season at RB, and I think the Falcons will do well to repeat as the NFC South Champions, let alone finishing as the Number 1 seed in the NFC.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints managed to reach the postseason last year as the defending SuperBowl Champions, but a shocking defeat to the Seattle Seahawks kind of summed up their season.
They have made a few moves in the off-season, releasing Reggie Bush and bringing in Darren Sproles to freshen up the RB position, while signing Olin Kreutz and Shaun Rodgers look like good moves.
The team was blighted by inconsistent performances last season, but I think they will win the South this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccs were the surprise package of the NFC last season and they were a little unfortunate to miss the postseason as they are in the toughest Division in the Conference (in my opinion).
However, they are a young team and I think they are still a little short of making a splash, and I actually feel they may have a drop off in performance as Defensive Co-Ordinators will have a better feel of what to expect.
Carolina Panthers: Ron Rivera is putting together the Panthers and all eyes will be on Number 1 Draft Pick Cam Newton- I think he has the potential to be a top QB, but his lack of playing time in College along with the long lockout means it will be tough for him this year.
We can expect a lot of running from this team, but it is hard to imagine they will score enough points to win a lot of games... In saying that, I expect them to improve a little from last year although not enough to move out of the basement in this Division.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks: Seattle managed to win this Division with a losing record last year and then reached the Divisional Round of the Play Offs after stunning the Saints in the Wild Card Round.
It is hard to get excited about a team that has Tavaris Jackson as the starting QB, although he will at least have the benefit of playing with Sidney Rice, his team-mate from Minnesota.
Will they improve on their 7-9 record? I don't think so this year as the Division looks to be a little better now the St Louis Rams are a year older and Arizona Cardinals have a QB.
St Louis Rams: I am expecting some good things from the Rams this season, especially if Sam Bradford plays like he did last season.
Steve Spagnuola has already got the Defensive unit playing well and I think they are the best team in the Division, although it will be interesting to see how they play with a lot more expectations on their shoulders.
They came close to winning the Division last year, and I think they will this year.
Arizona Cardinals: I liked the move to bring in Kevin Kolb, even at what looks like a high price on first glance, because he gives this team at least a chance of winning, something John Skelton and Derek Anderson did not.
The signing also persuaded Larry Fitzgerald to stay in the desert and I think they will be much improved from last year. However, they have lost some key players like Steve Breaston on the Offense and the Defense is a definite weak point.
This team needs to be going in the right direction if Ken Whisenhunt is still in a job in January.
San Francisco 49ers: It's so hard to feel confident in this squad when they continue to use Alex Smith as their QB- Smith has been given numerous chances over the years since being drafted as the Number 1 Pick overall, and he hasn't been helped by a number of different Offensive schemes to learn in that time, but he looks far too inconsistent to build a team around.
The Defense is a tough unit, but they can only do so much to keep the 49ers in games.
Jim Harbaugh will need time to turn the team around after a decade of decadence- I expect they will look good in a few games but still fail to reach 0.500 for the season.
WINNERS
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC West: St Louis Rams
Wild Cards: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys
I was worried we wouldn't see any games played this season, but thankfully the labour dispute was resolved and the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints will be good to go on Thursday night.
I have decided to have a brief look at the two Conferences in different posts, just to get an idea of how teams are likely to play this season and I will post my ante-post picks on Thursday morning.
NFC
NFC EAST
Where else to start but what was recently the most competitive Division in the NFL let alone the NFC. This year it doesn't seem to be the case with one team looking head and shoulders above their rivals.
Philadelphia Eagles: If you don't know what the Philadelphia Eagles have been doing this off-season, you need to get your head back in the NFL game. They have made some big plays in the free agency market as they get a team together that is geared for winning now and the SuperBowl is the aim.
Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have come in to sure up the iffy Secondary from last season while Jason Babin is sure to help providing the burst to attack opposition QBs. The Defense may have to play aggressively to cover up the short comings that remain in the middle of the field, with the weakness being at Linebacker and Safety.
Michael Vick will be under a different sort of pressure this season with expectations vastly increased following his performances last season. The Eagles will be hoping he can steer clear of injury, something he is susceptible to with his style of play. Vince Young will be backing him up, while Ronnie Brown has come in from Miami to back up LeSean McCoy.
The Eagles look the team to beat in this Division.
New York Giants: I would have been favouring the New York Giants to be the closest team to the Eagles, but injuries have decimated the Defense during the pre-season. Eli Manning may be a SuperBowl winning QB, but I am not convinced with him and he seems a little too erratic in terms of performances for me.
The Giants could have a decent season if they avoid any further injuries, but the NFL is not that forgiving and I think they will fall away come November.
Dallas Cowboys: This is an interesting team that does not have the expectation of last season that crushed their Play Off hopes before the season got to November.
Tony Romo is back at QB and I expect Dez Bryant will improve on last years rookie performance. The biggest problem for the Cowboys last season was their suspect Secondary and they don't seem to have improved in that department.
However, Rob Ryan comes in as Defensive Co-Ordinator and I expect he will use enough variations and schemes to confuse the opposition enough that they cannot take full advantage of their shortcomings.
I expect the Cowboys will go close for a Wild Card spot at best.
Washington Redskins: Mike Shanahan's rebuilding of this once proud franchise will continue this season and I expect things will not improve their 6-10 record from last season.
There are signs that things are on the way up for Redskins fans, but seeing either John Beck or Rex Grossman lead the Offense is enough to put anyone off. Donovan McNabb was traded to Minnesota so I don't really expect this team to be one to hang 30-40 points on teams.
The Defense is likely to keep the team in some games, but I think the Skins will find it tough in this Division to keep up with some high octane Offenses and they are destined to finish bottom of the East this season... However, things are at least beginning to look brighter for the future.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: The SuperBowl Champions may not have made a lot of free agency moves, but they have got a lot of players back from injury and look more than capable of making another run for the big one. Aaron Rodgers is an exceptional QB and he has plenty of weapons on the Offensive side of the ball that I can see them putting up lots of points.
The Defense is still solid, although they did miss out bringing in Nnamdi Asomugha in the off-season. The Pack look an all round good team and I expect they will be participating in the postseason and they could go deep.
Chicago Bears: The Chicago Bears had a better season than expected last season but the reigning North Champions are not being touted as having the same impact this year. The Defense is now another year older, while doubts remain over the abilities of Jay Cutler to lead the team on the Offense.
The trade of Greg Olsen to the Carolina Panthers was a strange move, and they may be hoping the Mike Martz Offense can spark a revival in Roy Williams who came in after spending time with the Dallas Cowboys.
This is a tough Division and it may be hard for Lovie Smith's troop to make it back to the postseason.
Detroit Lions: For the first time in an absolute age, the Lions look like having a really bright future. The Defense has been upgraded again from last season, when they shut down the Packers in both Divisional matches, and they have a real chance to make some noise in the NFC IF they can keep Matt Stafford healthy.
Stafford looks like a quality QB in the making, but his first 2 seasons have been decimated by injury. He showed enough promise in the games he did play to suggest the Lions have a good future to look forward to, especially with Calvin Johnson as one of the top WRs in the game.
I see an improvement for the squad this season, but whether that is good enough to get a Wild Card spot is yet to be determined and could rest on Stafford's injury issues.
Minnesota Vikings: A turbulent 2010 for the Vikings shows no real sign of improvement this season in my opinion. Donovan McNabb looks like a QB that doesn't have a lot left in the tank, while Sidney Rice has moved on to Seattle.
The Defense is a year older and there will be a lot of pressure on Adrian Peterson to keep the team driving forward.
The Vikings were built to 'win now' when bringing in Brett Favre in 2009, and that window has now closed with a transitional season in the offing.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: The Atlanta Falcons' deficiencies were shown up by the Packers in the Play Offs last season and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back. The team won a lot of close games and that means a slight change in fortune could see them taking several steps back.
There is a lot of talent in the team from QB Matt Ryan to WR Roddy White to DE John Abraham. However, Michael Turner may just have lost a half-step this season at RB, and I think the Falcons will do well to repeat as the NFC South Champions, let alone finishing as the Number 1 seed in the NFC.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints managed to reach the postseason last year as the defending SuperBowl Champions, but a shocking defeat to the Seattle Seahawks kind of summed up their season.
They have made a few moves in the off-season, releasing Reggie Bush and bringing in Darren Sproles to freshen up the RB position, while signing Olin Kreutz and Shaun Rodgers look like good moves.
The team was blighted by inconsistent performances last season, but I think they will win the South this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccs were the surprise package of the NFC last season and they were a little unfortunate to miss the postseason as they are in the toughest Division in the Conference (in my opinion).
However, they are a young team and I think they are still a little short of making a splash, and I actually feel they may have a drop off in performance as Defensive Co-Ordinators will have a better feel of what to expect.
Carolina Panthers: Ron Rivera is putting together the Panthers and all eyes will be on Number 1 Draft Pick Cam Newton- I think he has the potential to be a top QB, but his lack of playing time in College along with the long lockout means it will be tough for him this year.
We can expect a lot of running from this team, but it is hard to imagine they will score enough points to win a lot of games... In saying that, I expect them to improve a little from last year although not enough to move out of the basement in this Division.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks: Seattle managed to win this Division with a losing record last year and then reached the Divisional Round of the Play Offs after stunning the Saints in the Wild Card Round.
It is hard to get excited about a team that has Tavaris Jackson as the starting QB, although he will at least have the benefit of playing with Sidney Rice, his team-mate from Minnesota.
Will they improve on their 7-9 record? I don't think so this year as the Division looks to be a little better now the St Louis Rams are a year older and Arizona Cardinals have a QB.
St Louis Rams: I am expecting some good things from the Rams this season, especially if Sam Bradford plays like he did last season.
Steve Spagnuola has already got the Defensive unit playing well and I think they are the best team in the Division, although it will be interesting to see how they play with a lot more expectations on their shoulders.
They came close to winning the Division last year, and I think they will this year.
Arizona Cardinals: I liked the move to bring in Kevin Kolb, even at what looks like a high price on first glance, because he gives this team at least a chance of winning, something John Skelton and Derek Anderson did not.
The signing also persuaded Larry Fitzgerald to stay in the desert and I think they will be much improved from last year. However, they have lost some key players like Steve Breaston on the Offense and the Defense is a definite weak point.
This team needs to be going in the right direction if Ken Whisenhunt is still in a job in January.
San Francisco 49ers: It's so hard to feel confident in this squad when they continue to use Alex Smith as their QB- Smith has been given numerous chances over the years since being drafted as the Number 1 Pick overall, and he hasn't been helped by a number of different Offensive schemes to learn in that time, but he looks far too inconsistent to build a team around.
The Defense is a tough unit, but they can only do so much to keep the 49ers in games.
Jim Harbaugh will need time to turn the team around after a decade of decadence- I expect they will look good in a few games but still fail to reach 0.500 for the season.
WINNERS
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC West: St Louis Rams
Wild Cards: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys
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