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Tuesday, 17 August 2021

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (August 17th)

For the third tournament in succession, the Tennis Picks have produced a winning tournament and I am looking for another strong week before we head into the final Grand Slam of the 2021 season.

The First Round has begun in Cincinnati, but it will be completed on Tuesday.

We also have the beginning of the Second Round as the tournament looks to get business concluded by the end of the weekend and the rain delays have perhaps slowed things a little bit.

Hopefully it will be a clearer week for those taking to the courts as both the ATP and WTA Tour meet here for the final big event before the US Open gets underway on Monday 30th August.


Aslan Karatsev v Marin Cilic: There have been a couple of disappointing early losses for Aslan Karatsev in recent weeks at the Olympic Games and Canadian Masters and that has just slowed the momentum he earned early in the 2021 season. The rise up to World Number 22 has largely come about from a strong run in the Challenger events at the back end of 2020 followed by a very strong hard court season on the main Tour early in 2021.

Reaching the Australian Open Semi Final was a real surprise for the Russian, but he has backed up his hard court performances with a big title in Dubai. With that in mind it has been disappointing to see Aslan Karatsev end up losing to the likes of Jeremy Chardy and Karen Khachanov in the last two tournaments before really getting going.

The defeat to Khachanov is a bit more forgivable, but Aslan Karatsev will be looking for much better in Cincinnati where the faster conditions could be to his liking. When at his best, the serve can be a huge weapon for Aslan Karatsev and I think he will be looking to use that to keep the pressure on his veteran First Round opponent in Cincinnati.

Marin Cilic is not the player he was when winning the US Open and it has been a disappointing year on the hard courts so far. Like his opponent, Marin Cilic has suffered early defeats in both the Tokyo Olympics and Canadian Masters tournaments that have been played over the last few weeks and his 7-7 record on the hard courts in 2021 has to be a concern for the former World Number 3 who is now on the brink of exiting the top 40 in the World Rankings.

The serve is still an important part of the Cilic game and it will be instrumental to trying to win this First Round match, but the Croatian has not been able to produce the return of serve he could when at his best. That puts pressure on the serve and Marin Cilic has held less than 80% of the service games he has played on the hard courts and I certainly believe Aslan Karatsev has the return to put some Cilic in tough positions.

He has not been at his best in the last few months, but Aslan Karatsev can still have enough all around Tennis to beat Marin Cilic at this stage of their respective careers. It may need three sets to get it done, but I believe the Russian's superior return game can end up making the difference at a key moment and that should see Aslan Karatsev earn his spot in the Second Round.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: It has been a really difficult twelve months for Gael Monfils on the Tour, but his personal life looks to have settled down and that may spark a return to form on the court. A couple of matches were won last week in Toronto and it may give Gael Monfils to have a decent tournament in Cincinnati after failing to win a single hard court match in 2021 before heading to Canada.

The underlying numbers have not been too bad, but Gael Monfils has been on the wrong side of a number of close defeats and that has not helped him build any momentum. It is a reason the two wins in Toronto could be important for Monfils if he is going to have a strong end to the 2021 season and perhaps turn the negative momentum with his Ranking likely to plummet.

There is no doubt that Gael Monfils has to be stronger behind serve if he is going to win more matches, but there were some signs of that last week. He has held only 76% of his service games played on the hard courts this season, but Gael Monfils was only broken twice across his last two matches and will feel he has enough behind that shot to keep Dusan Lajovic at bay.

The Serbian World Number 44 has had a difficult season on the hard courts, although Dusan Lajovic was able to put a couple of wins on the board in Toronto last week. Like Monfils, Dusan Lajovic has to look at that tournament as a potential momentum shifter on his season on the hard courts and his numbers are pretty similar to Gael Monfils which makes this a tough match to call.

However, I do think Gael Monfils is the more comfortable player on the hard courts and he can only be more confident in beating Dusan Lajovic having won their only previous match on the clay courts which should favour the latter more than the former.

Dusan Lajovic has been slightly stronger on serve on this surface in 2021, but he has perhaps been a little better behind that shot than we have become accustomed to. It is Gael Monfils who has been the better returner of the two when it comes to hard court matches and I think that will be a key for the Frenchman to find a way to get past Lajovic and covering the spread on his way through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Aslan Karatsev @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units) 
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Friday, 13 August 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 1 Picks 2021 (August 13-15)

The last month has been something of a blur and I really can't believe that the new Premier League season is set to get underway this weekend.

It feels like it has come around very quickly following the Euro 2020 delayed Finals, but it is a time for excitement up and down the country. There is always a positive feeling on the eve of a new season, but it feels different this season as for many match-going fans it will be the chance to return to grounds for the first time in around seventeen months.

I will be at Old Trafford for the Saturday lunch time kick off and I do think Manchester United have all of the tools to have a very successful season. Making a strong start is so important to clubs at the top of the Premier League after the kind of standards that have been set in recent campaigns and so there can't be a feeling out process or any excuses for poor results.

You can read my thoughts on the opening weekend fixtures below before I get onto the Fantasy Football portion of the thread.


Brentford v Arsenal Pick: The Premier League returns on Friday night as Brentford become the 50th club to play at this level since the start of the 1992/93 season.

In recent years Brentford have proved to be one of the best run clubs in England with a business model that has forced outsiders to respect the methods being used. This is a data driven club, but it has proved to be very effective as Brentford have overcome losing some big name players and found the right replacements to keep the club developing in a positive manner.

It has also led to Brentford moving to a new home and the idea was that the Brentford Community Stadium would be ready for Premier League Football as soon as it opened. The Covid-19 pandemic has ensured that dream has come true, albeit in a round about way, and Brentford fans will be piling into the Stadium on Friday to produced an intense atmosphere from the start.

Home advantage was somewhat lost last season as clubs played in front of empty stands, but I do think the return of fans will be a big boost for teams up and down the country. Brentford played well at home last season anyway, but they did have too many draws for Thomas Franks' liking and having the fans pushing the players on should help.

Of course Brentford are playing at a higher level now and they were beaten here by Leicester City in the FA Cup. However, Brentford also reached the League Cup Quarter Final with wins over Southampton, West Brom (Penalties), Fulham and Newcastle United and that should let the players know they are capable of performing against Premier League clubs.

First up is an Arsenal team that will not have European Football on the calendar for the first time in 25 years and who look to have hit a low point in their recent history. They did end the Premier League season in good form which will be encouraging for Mikel Arteta, while Arsenal won 10 of their 19 away Premier League games last season.

Ben White is the only signing of note to this point, but Arsenal have some quality younger players that look to have taken a step forward in their development over the last twelve months. The Gunners still have the quality of Alexandre Lacazette, Nicolas Pepe and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the final third too and they were a pretty stubborn team to break down in the Premier League last season before adding Ben White to the mix.

Arsenal were unbeaten away from home at the seven clubs that made up the bottom of the Premier League last season and they won 6 of those games. While I do think Brentford are capable of surviving at this level, Arsenal finished with a top four away defence according to the underlying stats last season and they are capable of opening up with an important win here.

This will be far from easy, especially when you consider how tough Brentford are at home, but the jump in level and the expected improvement of Arsenal gives them an edge here. The Gunners won 0-3 at newly promoted Fulham on the opening weekend of last season and, while the odds on quote is far from appealing, I do think they can open this Premier League campaign with a victory.

It won't be as comfortable as it was in a different part of West London last September, but Arsenal can do just enough to secure the points.


Manchester United v Leeds United Pick: When the fixtures were produced for the 2020/21 season, the one that a lot of Manchester United fans would have most been looking forward to was renewing the rivalry with Leeds United. There is no love lost between the Lancashire-Yorkshire rivals and a real sense of disappointment would have developed when seeing the large majority of the season played behind closed doors.

Things change on Saturday with a full Old Trafford ready to welcome Leeds United back into the big time and there is a real sense of belief that Manchester United are ready to compete for the Premier League title. Buying an experienced, quality defender like Raphael Varane and adding the talent of Jadon Sancho has only improved the starting eleven, although both players will likely begin their Manchester United careers on the bench.

Some doubt is raised by the return of key players from major international tournaments this summer and that does mean Manchester United may have to utilise the squad against one of the tougher teams to face in the Premier League. After finishing 9th in the Premier League table, Leeds United proved the Marcelo Bielsa style can be highly effective in the top flight and the strong end to the season curtailed any concerns about whether the squad could cope with the demands placed on them by the manager.

Leeds United won their last 4 Premier League games and they did win 10 of 19 away League games last season which is an impressive number for a newly promoted club. However, they were beaten in 6 of the 8 away games played at clubs that finished above them in the Premier League table and that includes the heavy defeat at Old Trafford last December.

Marcelo Bielsa showed he learned from some of the early experiences when his Leeds United team were perhaps far too open and they closed out the campaign with a single loss in 11 League games. That was the sole game in which Leeds United conceded more than one goal in that run and they held the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Manchester City below two goals in that time too.

In that time Leeds United also played out a goalless draw with Manchester United and I do think the change in philosophy made Leeds United much tougher to deal with.

I expect they will take that into the opening weekend of the season after losing 4-3 at Anfield in their opening game of the 2020/21 Premier League campaign. The balance between attack and defence helped Leeds United finish up very strongly last time out, and that has to be a concern for Manchester United who will not be able to call on some key players to open this fixture.

An early goal could really spark this fixture, but I think it will be a tight, tough game for both Manchester United and Leeds United. The visitors were vastly more secure defensively in the second half of last season as they got to grips with the Premier League, while Manchester United were tough to break down at times too.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer knows the importance of a strong start and I think it will see him look to make life difficult for Leeds United who will be intense and full of energy. That means making sure Manchester United are not overly progressive and looking to take advantage of set pieces, a weakness for Leeds United defensively last season, and I think this might be a low-scoring fixture with neither looking to give too much away.

4 of the last 6 Leeds United Premier League fixtures against clubs that finished above them in the standings finished with fewer than three goals shared out and that may be the case at Old Trafford too.


Burnley v Brighton Pick: Both Burnley and Brighton have to be very happy with the fact they have kept hold of their managers through the summer and both Sean Dyche and Graham Potter are going to be massively important for their respective clubs over the course of the season.

It was so important for Burnley to keep hold of Sean Dyche who has shown he has all of the ability to extract everything out of this squad. He has largely kept Burnley clear of the relegation fight, but Dyche has not been as backed in the transfer market as he would have hoped since the takeover of the club was confirmed.

The January window may have come too soon, but only Nathan Collins has arrived so far in the summer and Burnley are a couple of serious injuries away from struggling. At least they are going into the season with the key players available and with Chris Wood back from the Olympic Games after representing New Zealand.

A strong start will be important for Burnley who ended last season in miserable form. They suffered some heavy defeats at home and the form at Turf Moor will have to be improved significantly if Burnley are going to avoid the drop, but having the fans returning will be a boost.

Brighton are a tough opening fixture for Burnley and one that may give the fans some concern as to the direction the season could be heading. Last season Brighton only finished 2 points above Burnley, but this is a progressive team who would likely be much higher up the League standings if they can find someone to put a clinical touch to all of the build up play.

It may be possible for Brighton to find the improvement in the final third within the squad, but I do think they need to buy a striker who can push Neal Maupay and Danny Welbeck. The latter is too injury prone and will miss out this week and this has proved to be a difficult ground for Brighton to secure the full points.

They certainly look plenty short in the market as one of the 'trendy' picks to finish much higher up the League standings this time around. You can't argue with the quality of chances Brighton can create, but over the second half of the season they did have some difficulties being as effective going forward away from home as they were at The Amex Stadium.

Burnley will have their tried and tested backline together for the opening fixture and I think they can do enough to earn a positive result. It should be another tight fixture with 6 of the last 8 between these clubs ending with fewer than three goals shared out, but Burnley may have enough to at least earn a point in this one.

Brighton should be stronger overall this season, but they had a poor end to the last campaign on their travels and that may show up here.


Chelsea v Crystal Palace Pick: Two years ago Liverpool won the Champions League and followed up by winning the Premier League the following season and it is a path that Chelsea fans believe their team can tread under Thomas Tuchel. The Champions League success in Porto in May was a surprise, but it underlined the kind of improvement Chelsea made when their new manager took over from Frank Lampard and extracted a lot more from a squad that had been struggling.

Romelu Lukaku looks to be added to the mix and that only strengthens Chelsea further, but Thomas Tuchel will be looking for his team to make a strong start to the season. The fixture list has been far from kind to Chelsea who will face Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City in their first six Premier League fixtures and it does mean they can ill afford an opening weekend disappointment.

It is far from ideal that Chelsea had to play in the European Super Cup on Wednesday and even picking up a trophy would not have made up for the fact they needed Extra Time and Penalties. That comes after many of their top players would have been late returning to the club after playing in the major international tournaments this summer and that does leave Chelsea potentially vulnerable.

However, they do benefit from facing a Crystal Palace team that will be learning new methods under the guidance of Patrick Vieira who has taken over from Roy Hodgson. It was something of a left field appointment and the last time Crystal Palace tried that they lost their first 4 Premier League games under Frank de Boer without scoring a goal.

Patrick Vieira has experienced the Premier League as a player and he had links with Manchester City which should have kept him up to date with the League. He is going to be changing the philosophy of the Crystal Palace squad that has been accustomed to being set up to be hard to beat, but there has been some upheaval with plenty of experience leaving the club this summer.

The former Arsenal Captain has had a mixed time as manager of New York City and Nice and I do think Crystal Palace will need time under Vieira's guidance. The learning curve means they are vulnerable to a Chelsea team that scored four goals in both Premier League wins over Crystal Palace last season and who have beaten this London rival 4 times in succession at Stamford Bridge.

A huge effort on Wednesday might mean Chelsea have to rotate their squad, but they have the quality at both ends of the field to break down this Crystal Palace team. With big away games at Arsenal and Liverpool to come before the first international break, Thomas Tuchel should motivate a big performance from his team to get this Premier League campaign off to a winning start and I think Chelsea will take advantage of some of the uncertainty that will surely be in the visitor's camp.

Chelsea should be strong enough to win by a couple of goals on the day and I think they will cover the Asian Handicap as they get their title challenge going.


Everton v Southampton Pick: There are more questions than answers about the state of Everton and Southampton ahead of the opening fixture in the 2021/22 season.

Rafa Benitez has come in as manager of Everton, but his arrival has been anything but universally approved by the fans and that puts the Spaniard on the back foot from the off. Not many have forgiven Benitez for calling Everton a 'small club' when managing across Stanley Park at Liverpool and that means a slow start is not really going to be tolerated by the returning fans.

He does benefit from a good looking fixture list through the first two months, but Rafa Benitez could be without some big name players on Saturday and that is far from ideal. Richarlison is a doubt having only just returned from international duty, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Moise Kean are both doubts and you do wonder if they can take advantage of the poor form Southampton were displaying in the second half of the last campaign.

Ralph Hasenhuttl will be given time by the Southampton board, but he is another manager that needs a positive start to the campaign. Losing Danny Ings to Aston Villa is a massive blow and Southampton conceded goals for fun away from St Mary's last season which saw them drop alarmingly towards the bottom three.

The squad looks much weaker than last season with Ryan Bertrand another who has moved on, but Southampton did make a positive start to the last campaign and they could take advantage if there are some nerves in the home camp. Southampton have only lost 2 of their last 5 visits to this ground and the long injury list to end last season contributed to their overall poor form.

James Ward-Prowse looks to be absent and that is a miss for The Saints, but the back four should be more settled and Everton's forwards look like they will either be short of training time or perhaps a little fatigued having played at the Olympic Games in Tokyo.

It could mean a lack of goals in the home team and you do wonder how the atmosphere will turn if Southampton can get their noses in front. They can certainly do that despite the horrific away form to end last season and I think Everton look like one of the more vulnerable home favourites on the opening weekend of the season.


Leicester City v Wolves Pick: The opening of a new season will always bring new hope and optimism in any fan base, but it feels like things are a little more uncertain for those who support Wolves. After a successful era under Nuno Espirito Santo, Wolves decided the time was right to move on and change direction after finishing 13th last time out.

Much is going to depend on how quickly Bruno Lage finds his feet as the new manager of the club.

The fans are not entirely sure what they can expect after Lage's previous job with Benfica saw him win the Portuguese title, but then also oversee some of the poorest runs of results that the former European Champions have experienced for over a generation. He has some previous experience of English Football and Bruno Lage has promised to bring more attacking football to Molineux, but finding the right blend and balance will be a challenge.

Wolves have some quality players, but they are dealing with a long injury list as they get set to visit Leicester City.

The Foxes impressed in their 1-0 win over Manchester City in the Community Shield last week and they started the Premier League very strongly last season. That is encouraging as Leicester City were trying to bounce back from a disappointing final day defeat to Manchester United at the end of the 2019/20 season which cost them Champions League Football and now Leicester City have to try and do the same following the final day defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in May which left them in 5th place.

Brendan Rodgers knows his team have to improve at home, but they were not helped down the stretch with injury costing them key players. Harvey Barnes and James Maddison both missed out on England duty over the summer because of those injuries, but that may be to Leicester City's benefit and they can get their season off to a strong start.

Leicester City did score at least twice in their last 4 Premier League games at the King Power Stadium and they created some good chances in their win over Manchester City last week. A more positive Wolves team may also be a little more vulnerable than they usually are and I think Leicester City can take advantage on the opening weekend.

Games between these clubs have been tight over the last two seasons, but the last two have not lacked for chances. Leicester City have won 3 of their last 4 at home against Wolves and I think they are good enough to score at least two goals here which should be enough for an opening three points in the 2021/22 campaign.


Watford v Aston Villa Pick: Losing 'one of their own' has felt inevitable for Aston Villa fans for some time, but Jack Grealish's decision to leave for Manchester City has helped the club bring in some real quality as they look to improve on their 11th place finish in the Premier League last season.

Dean Smith will be without John Terry this season, but the manager has to be given a huge amount of credit for the improvement Aston Villa have made under his watch. Last season was their highest League finish in a decade and Aston Villa have bolstered the squad by bringing in quality like Emiliano Buendia, Leon Bailey and Danny Ings.

Between the three of those players, Aston Villa are confident they can make up for the absence of Grealish. It will be a test for the club considering how much weaker they looked in matches where Jack Grealish was absent last season, but Aston Villa will head into the opening weekend as the favourite when taking on a newly promoted club.

Watford are back in the Premier League after spending a season in the Championship, but Xisco Munoz will be under pressure from the off considering how often this club will change managers. The Pozzo family have been successful in making the decision to replace managers in their time running Watford, but two seasons ago four names were not able to keep the team in the Premier League.

The squad has plenty of experience at this level, but Watford will be quite happy to finish 17th in the Premier League table and just consolidate their place back in the top flight. They did win 19 of 23 home League games in the Championship and the form at Vicarage Road is going to be vital for Watford if they are going to avoid another relegation.

Their underlying stats at home were pretty decent last season, but much was based on being difficult to break down. Against the added quality of Premier League opponents it will be difficult, and Watford need to win more than the 6 home wins managed in the Premier League two seasons ago if they are going to avoid finishing in the bottom three of the Division.

Having the home fans back should only aid Watford and they are facing an opponent who struggled to break down those teams they were likely to be considered favourites to beat. Since the turn of the calendar year, Aston Villa failed to beat the likes of Newcastle United, Brighton and West Brom, while losing to Sheffield United, Burnley and Crystal Palace.

Dean Smith will want his team to show more creativity against those teams willing to defend deep against his team, but Aston Villa could be missing Emiliano Buendia, Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey on the opening weekend. They will still be dangerous with Danny Ings leading the line, but Watford look like an underdog that could ride the momentum of their end to last season to earn a positive result to open this one.

Watford have a decent record at home against Aston Villa in recent seasons and they may just have enough to avoid defeat if their visitors are not able to call upon their most creative and attacking players this weekend.

Aston Villa had one of the weaker away defences in the League in terms of chances being allowed during this calendar year and Watford could earn an 'upset' here with the fans finally back to support them.


Norwich City v Liverpool Pick: An immediate return to the Premier League saw Daniel Farke fulfil his requirements as manager of Norwich City last season, but it will be his experiences of two seasons ago that will determine how well The Canaries deal with the top flight this time around.

Two years ago Norwich City finished bottom of the pile and earned just 21 points while they seemingly accepted their fate far earlier than they should have. The squad is arguably not as good as it was in the 2019/20 season, but they are more experienced and the manager is being asked to consolidate Norwich City's place in the top flight while still dealing with the financial purse strings remaining in the same place as they were.

Home form was disappointing a couple of seasons ago and Norwich City have been given a very tough start to the 2021/22 season as they look to build some momentum following another Championship winning campaign. Injuries and Covid-19 issues could see Daniel Farke's men going into the opening weekend short of numbers, but they can't expect much sympathy from Liverpool.

Last season it was a pile up of defensive injuries that saw Liverpool finish 17 points behind Champions Manchester City as their defence of the Premier League title went off the rails at the turn of the calendar year. At one point it looked like Liverpool may not even finish in the top four, but the likes of Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez are back and that should give Liverpool a solid base on which to get much closer to the top of the Division.

Andrew Robertson will miss the first couple of games, but having the key centre halves back in action should enable Liverpool to play with a much stronger attacking style. There were some concerns that their front three have lost a little of their edge, but Diogo Jota should offer another spark and Liverpool can extend what is a very strong record at Carrow Road.

They have won their last 7 visits to this ground including a 0-1 win two seasons ago, and Liverpool have won 6 of their last 7 away Premier League games. Norwich City should be given a huge boost by the returning crowds, but there is a considerable gap for them to bridge to what is expected to be a title challenger in the Premier League.

Norwich City did not give any team an easy ride at home in their last Premier League campaign and did beat Manchester City here. Narrow losses to Chelsea and Liverpool and a draw with Tottenham Hotspur shows what Norwich City may be capable of in front of their own fans, but they could be short of numbers in this opening fixture and I think Liverpool will take advantage by securing a wide win on the day.


Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: The first live Sunday Premier League fixture of the 2021/22 season will be played out in front of a full St James' Park and I am not sure that privately Steve Bruce is perhaps feeling a little anxious about the occasion.

There is no doubt that Bruce and Mike Ashley are considered the enemies by the Newcastle United fans and it feels a protest or a surge of momentum against the club is never far away from the stands. Even a 12th place finish in the Premier League last season is unlikely to have appeased the fans who feel Newcastle United are stuck in purgatory under Mike Ashley's stewardship, while players have seemingly revolted against Steve Bruce pretty recently.

Despite that, Newcastle United did end the last season in solid form with 5 wins from their last 8 games which pushed them up the standings. A fast start may give Bruce the breathing room he desires, but a lack of transfer activity looks to have left Newcastle United short of quality behind the first eleven.

Keeping Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson fit and firing will be key for Newcastle United who won just 6 games at St James' Park last season.

Avoiding long-term injuries has to be the same ambition for West Ham United after David Moyes led them to their highest League finish since 1998/99. The 6th place means Europa League Football will be played at the London Stadium this season, but West Ham United have not really given Moyes the depth to the squad he would have wanted and they are still hugely reliant on Michail Antonio with little behind him.

Transfer business is likely to go down to the wire for West Ham United, but they will at least open the season with the vast majority of their key players ready to go. Jesse Lingard has returned to Manchester United, but West Ham United have some decent attacking options and they will certainly feel they can test this Newcastle United defence.

You can get at West Ham United defensively too though and I think that will be encouraging to Newcastle United who beat The Hammers 3-2 here in April. That meant completing the League double over West Ham United and was the latest in what has become a high-scoring fixture.

7 of the last 9 between these clubs have finished with three or more goals shared out. That includes each of the last 5 between the clubs at St James' Park and this feels like an attacking game with both teams looking stronger in the final third than they do in their own defensive third.

Most are expecting West Ham United to finish much lower than their 6th place last season with the current squad they have, but in August they should be able to concentrate on their Premier League form. Playing the Europa League Group games will add to the stresses for the players, but for now they are only playing one fixture per week and I think West Ham United have a fixture list they will feel they can negotiate effectively.

Winning here won't be easy though and the feeling is that both teams will find a way to hit the net in the latest high-scoring game played between Newcastle United and West Ham United at St James' Park.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: The opening fixture of a new season is always an exciting time for fans, but even more so this season after seventeen months where they have largely been absent due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

It should be no different for Tottenham Hotspur fans who have not really enjoyed their new Stadium as they would have wanted, but this is a fixture that is being overshadowed by the Harry Kane story. The England international and Spurs legend has asked to leave the club believing he would be allowed to do so this summer, but Daniel Levy has dug in and Kane is clearly unhappy.

To add to the drama, Harry Kane's desire is to join Champions Manchester City who happen to be the opponent for Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.

A new manager makes things a little more blurry for Tottenham Hotspur fans, but Nuno Espirito Santo is well accustomed to managing in the Premier League and has made it clear that Harry Kane will be available for selection. Some transfer business has given the manager a few more options, but Tottenham Hotspur look like a team in transition and it has to be a concern that Leicester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United were all able to win here last season.

One team that couldn't were Manchester City who have lost all 3 visits to this new Stadium and who could perhaps be vulnerable in the first month of the season. Pep Guardiola has admitted that the summer international tournaments have had an impact on his preparation and he will also be without Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden.

Those two are hugely influential, while Manchester City had an inconsistent start to the last campaign. They did win 1-3 at a Wolves team managed by Nuno Espirito Santo on the opening weekend of last season, but both De Bruyne and Foden were on the scoresheet that day and Tottenham Hotspur may have the familiarity with one another to make life difficult for the Champions.

In the main it feels like it will be a difficult transitional season for Tottenham Hotspur, but having the fans back and facing Manchester City at this stage may give them nothing to lose. Most will expect Spurs to roll over and lose, but I think they have enjoyed facing Manchester City here and the visitors are without some key names for this trip to North East London.

Some of the other top teams in the Premier League won here last season, but Nuno Espirito Santo has regularly made his Wolves team stubborn against the elite in his time in the Black Country. He will likely set Tottenham Hotspur up to be dangerous on the counter attack and the home underdog could be backed with the start which can only return a loser if Spurs are beaten convincingly.

Manchester City might be considered good enough to do that in a month or two, but right now they could be a little short of fitness to earn anything easily. It may lead to a surprising opening result that will give the other title challengers something to motivate them further than the additions made at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford already.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester United-Leeds United Under 2.5 Goals
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Southampton + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Leicester City & Over 1.5 Total Goals
Watford + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur + 1 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 1 2021/22
The return of the Premier League means the return of the Fantasy Premier League game which is becoming more and more popular in each passing season.

At this stage I think it can be difficult to really create a squad that you are going to be happy with throughout the season but you have to learn from previous experiences.

For example, I am not keen on bringing in too many new signings who may be eased into the starting line ups, while I am not going to invest big money on players that are massive rotation risks. After the international summer of football, the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea are going to have some big names returning from short holidays and that should see the squads utilised in the first month of the season.

Neither team has the most appealing of opening fixtures either, but they are two of the leading contenders to win the title and so at some point you will want to bring in players from those teams. It might be a situation where you can wait for things to settle a little bit before you do, while risky to go without from either of those squads.

Liverpool and Manchester United look to be offering the best premium options ahead of Week 1, while the likes of Aston Villa, Leeds United and West Ham United have mid-priced options that could spark.

Of the newly promoted teams you do have to like how Brentford approach things, while both Norwich City and Watford are experienced in the Premier League and should have learnt from their 2019/20 seasons.

Norwich City have an awful set of fixtures to open the season, but Brentford could be a decent team to get behind with the likes of Ivan Toney priced very competitively.

Getting behind someone with the potential to streak like Toney early in the season could see a massive price rise as we saw for players early last season and that can be very important for those looking to finish very high up the standings.

Home form should also be stronger this time around compared with the Covid hit 2020/21 season that was played behind closed doors. It will be interesting to see how some teams that impressed last season cope with what has been a demanding fan base (West Ham United come to mind), while others should be much stronger (Liverpool are unlikely to lose 6 in a row at Anfield with their fans backing them as they did without them last season).

Over the last couple of seasons I have made a poor start to the Fantasy game and I am looking for much better this time around. Taking fewer 'punts' has to be the plan, although I am likely going to be working on my team right up until the deadline on Friday evening.

Thursday, 12 August 2021

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (August 12th)

It has been a really inconsistent week for the Tennis Picks and it means the performance of the selections has not been good enough as far as I am concerned.

Something of a roll was being put together in a season when the Tour begins to resemble something like normality despite the continued problems being posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, but I need to have a couple of strong days to turn this week back around and look for a third tournament in succession producing a positive return.

We are into the Third Round of the Canadian Masters at both the events in Montreal and Toronto and the entirety of that Round will be played on Thursday. It will be the Quarter Finals taking centre stage on Friday before both events are completed over the weekend and the ATP and WTA Tours join together for the last major tournament before the US Open begins later this month.


Roberto Bautista Agut v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: The Big Three of the ATP Tour are all missing for the next two Masters events on the North American hard courts and that will offer a real opportunity for players to pick up a big title and plenty of momentum to take into the US Open later this month. The final Grand Slam of the season may be a really open event considering the issues Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are dealing with and the chance to win a Major is something that every player on the Tour should be looking to grasp with both hands.

In recent years the US Open has been the most open of the Grand Slam tournaments on the ATP Tour and the likes of Marin Cilic, Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem have all ended up Champions here in the last seven runnings of the tournament.

Roberto Bautista Agut and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will meet in the Third Round in Toronto looking to showcase their own abilities to win a big event and both are better hard court players than may be expected. The two have had solid runs in the past, but only one of them can build on the early momentum they have earned here having received a Bye in the First Round and so winning a single match each to reach the Third Round.

A couple of poor showings in European clay court events while many took the chance to play at the Olympics may have knocked Roberto Bautista Agut's confidence, but he was a comfortable winner over Tommy Paul in the Second Round. The Spaniard has been the more consistent hard court player compared with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Roberto Bautista Agut will have a similar ability to get into the long rallies and feel he can outwork his opponent.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will believe the same, but there is a marked difference in the ability of the two players to hold serve on this surface. Both are decent return players, but it is Roberto Bautista Agut who can find a way to hold onto his serve a little more effectively than Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and that may help him edge through to this Masters Quarter Final.

Two years ago Roberto Bautista Agut got the better of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in Canada, albeit in Montreal rather than in Toronto where this Third Round match will be played. The Spaniard doubled the amount of break points created compared with Schwartzman on that day and I do think his return ability can see him edge past the Argentinian in this tough looking Third Round match too.


Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: A Lucky Loser might be considered a player that is vulnerable in the main draw of any tournament, but Frances Tiafoe is a gifted tennis player who has yet to put it all together to find the consistency he would like. The American has taken full advantage of taking Sebastian Korda's place in the main draw and two impressive wins have moved him through to the Third Round in Toronto.

The second win was particularly notable as Frances Tiafoe beat home hope Denis Shapovalov and dominated the match to underline the kind of tennis he can play when at his best. The problem for Tiafoe has been to maintain that kind of level through multiple matches, but he has played four matches here this week and that should mean he is fully in tune with the kind of conditions he will see.

Backing up a big win can be difficult for those players further down the World Rankings, especially as Frances Tiafoe is going to have bigger expectations to win this match than he did against Denis Shapovalov. A couple of seasons ago it is unlikely that Tiafoe would have been the favourite, but Gael Monfils has had a very difficult twelve months and there are signs that the Frenchman is on the downward turn of his career.

Gael Monfils was a good winner over John Millman in the Second Round, but his World Ranking will take a major dent when the Tour returns to the twelve month format shortly. The Number 24 Ranking feels too high for Monfils and a 4-10 record in 2021 underlines the point about this veteran losing his way.

Before the win in the Second Round, Gael Monfils had lost all three previous matches played on the hard courts and that includes at the Tokyo Olympics at the end of last month.

Neither of these players has been particularly impressive on the return of serve, but Frances Tiafoe has held 80% of the service games played on the hard courts this season compared with Gael Monfils' 70% mark and that is a huge difference relatively speaking. The American has also been slightly more productive on the return of serve and I think Frances Tiafoe is deserving of his spot as the favourite.

He can also look back fondly on his sole previous meeting with Gael Monfils which saw Frances Tiafoe win in straight sets at the Cincinnati Masters in August 2019. Back then Gael Monfils was the stronger hard court player, but I feel he has slipped and Frances Tiafoe is still a steady enough force on this surface to win and cover in this Third Round match.


Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: A Bye in the First Round and a Walkover in the Second Round has seen Hubert Hurkacz move through to the Canadian Masters Third Round without playing a single shot. He disappointed at the Tokyo Olympics, but Hubert Hurkacz will be looking to build on his earlier Masters success when winning in Miami on the hard courts.

That was a significant moment in his career, but Hubert Hurkacz will have had even more people sitting up and taking notice after reaching the Wimbledon Semi Final last month. That run included beating both Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer and the tall Polish player has shown enough on the hard courts to suggest he will be a potential threat in New York City.

There will be a bit of a learning curve with a first match in the conditions, but Hubert Hurkacz will have been in Toronto for a while and that won't be an excuse ahead of the Third Round match. A couple of titles have been won on the hard courts, but Hurkacz will be looking for more consistency after a number of early defeats in other tournaments have prevented him from really pushing up the World Rankings as he would have liked.

Winning in Miami is big though with many considering that Masters tournament as the 'fifth Major' in previous years and I think that is encouraging for the Pole. His numbers on the hard courts have been pretty impressive too in 2021, but you do have to wonder if those are sustainable for him.

I do feel this Third Round match is an opportunity for Hubert Hurkacz, although Nikoloz Basilashvili is a pure example of a player that can be incredibly hot one week and then disappear from the business end of tournaments for a number of weeks after that. The Georgian had a really poor hard court season in 2020, but he has been stronger in 2021 and his wins over Jenson Brooksby and the crushing of Alex De Minaur here in Toronto have to be highly respected.

The problem for Nikoloz Basilashvili is that his serve can be a weakness and that should offer Hubert Hurkacz an opportunity to earn the breaks to move past him. Nikoloz Basilashvili has held in just 72% of service games played on the hard courts and that puts pressure on the return, a pressure that will be hard to manage against someone who is capable of serving as effectively as Hubert Hurkacz is when at his best.

There is a talent in Basilashvili that has to be respected, but I can see Hubert Hurkacz serving well enough to force the break down of the Georgian's service game and it should see the Miami Masters Champion come through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Canadian Masters Update: 6-7, - 4.76 Units (26 Units Staked, - 18.31% Yield)

Wednesday, 11 August 2021

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (August 11th)

The two Masters played in the weeks before the US Open begin are both congested events with little rest between matches for those progressing through the draw.

On Wednesday the Second Round is completed in both the Men's and Women's events in Toronto and Montreal respectively, although there could be some delays with heavy rain expected at both tournaments.


It was not the best opening to the tournament for the Tennis Picks after back to back winning runs at Wimbledon and the Olympic Games.

Things could have been a lot worse, but I do look to have a big improvement in the selections made on Wednesday to turn the week back in my favour.

Unsurprisingly, the tight nature of the week means I am not able to write out fuller posts, but all of the selections have been researched.


MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ludmilla Samsonova @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Canadian Masters Update: 3-4, - 3.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)

Tuesday, 10 August 2021

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (August 10th)

The run up to the final Grand Slam of the season sees two Masters events played back to back and that is the last chance for the majority of the big names and favourites to win the US Open to fine-tune their Tennis.

Some of those names have decided to skip the Canadian Masters having taken part in the Olympic Games, while others may choose to miss out in Cincinnati next week too. I am not sure that is going to leave any of them undercooked mainly because you do get an opportunity to work your way into a Grand Slam, and especially at the back end of what has been a trying year on the Tour with the late start in Australia put into consideration.

Novak Djokovic is the biggest name missing out, while Roger Federer's participation at the US Open has to be in doubt as his knee continues to slow down the ageing legend. I would expect the World Number 1 to be ready to go in New York later this month, but it does mean there is an opportunity for players to build momentum over the next two Masters events and go into the final Grand Slam with momentum and confidence behind them.


The Canadian Masters is played across two venues with the WTA Tour heading to Montreal and the ATP Tour in Toronto before both mix together for Cincinnati and then the US Open. Conditions can be quite different in the two Cities, but it is a good opportunity for players to lay down a marker. Novak Djokovic is missing as I have mentioned, but Ashleigh Barty and Naomi Osaka are both out of the WTA event and I think that leaves the door open for the other players in what has become a very open Tour with multiple players capable of getting hot enough to win a Major event.

I didn't have any Picks from the Monday action at the Tennis despite looking through the matches scheduled, but there look to be more options on Tuesday with the remainder of the First Round to be played and the Second Round beginning.


MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ugo Humbert + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova + 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Harriet Dart + 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Saturday, 31 July 2021

Olympic Tennis Day 9 Picks 2021 (August 1st)

The Tokyo Olympics are concluded for the Tennis tournament on Sunday with the Men's Gold Medal match and I do think it has the potential of being a good one.

Karen Khachanov + 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: The Gold Medal has been decided in the Women's event and the Bronze Medal in both the Women's and Men's event was also played on Saturday. That leaves the Sunday clear for the Men's Gold Medal match between Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov as they look to secure the biggest title of their careers which could spark more to come at Grand Slam level.

The challenge in the Grand Slams is different in the best of five set format, but this Gold Medal match has changed format back into the best of the three set format. That should aid both Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov, although the pressure of winning a major title is something they will be relatively unfamiliar with.

Alexander Zverev has experienced playing in a US Open Final and that should help him massively in the Gold Medal match. He did blow a strong opportunity to win that Slam last year, but the German is coming off a confidence boosting win over the World Number 1 and he is going to head into the Final as a significant favourite.

The tournament has been a really strong one for Alexander Zverev and that will further the belief in the player that he can win this Gold Medal and perhaps use it to spark further success on the Tour. Alexander Zverev's serve is a big weapon, but the conditions have suited him in Tokyo when it comes to the return and that makes him very dangerous.

However, I don't think you can draw a line through the chances of Karen Khachanov who had a very strong win in the Semi Final and looks to be at home in the conditions himself. He has spent longer on the court than Alexander Zverev, but Karen Khachanov has had a couple of days off and the comfortable win in the Semi Final will have given him ample time to refresh and get ready for the biggest match of his career.

Like Zverev, Karen Khachanov has been really strong behind his serve and I think that gives him a chance of the upset. The Russian has also been impressive on the return and his head to head with Alexander Zverev will certainly offer further encouragement.

It has been a couple of years since these players last met on the professional Tour, but Karen Khachanov has won the last two matches to pull himself back to 2-2 against Alexander Zverev. Both those wins have come on a faster hard court than the one that they will be playing on in Tokyo, but they are two wins that will give Karen Khachanov a lot of belief in his ability to knock off the favourite.

Over their three previous hard court matches, Karen Khachanov has held in 88% of service games played against Alexander Zverev compared with the 64% mark of the latter. Karen Khachanov has dominated the break points created in the last two matches between the pair and I do think the Russian can be backed with a start to at least keep this one close.

I think he can take a set which would give him the chance of the cover and Karen Khachanov is worth siding with in this Gold Medal match before all the players move across to North America for preparation towards the US Open.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov + 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Game: 25-18, + 4.06 Units (88 Units Staked, + 4.61% Yield)

Friday, 30 July 2021

Olympic Tennis Day 8 Picks 2021 (July 31st)

The Tokyo Olympics are down to the Medal matches for those taking part in the Tennis event and the majority of the players involved have likely began their move across to North America where the build up to the US Open has begun.

Most won't likely take part in events listed to begin over the next few days, but Rafael Nadal is back as he travels to Washington for the first time.

Those are the 'weakest' events left before the run to the US Open with back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati played back to back in the middle of August. We should begin to get some insight into how the US Open may shake out, but for now the focus is on the Olympics and handing out the Medals across the next two days.


Elena Rybakina - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: The Bronze Medal match in the Women's Tennis Olympic tournament will be played before the Gold Medal match and it is a strange situation for the players competing. Every other tournament they would have played would have been over as soon as the Semi Final match points went against them, but Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina have to return to the court two days after those defeats to play this Bronze Medal match.

The mindset can be quite difficult to determine when you think of the normality of the situation for the players off a defeat. Elena Rybakina has to be feeling the Semi Final loss a little more than Elina Svitolina because the Kazakhstan player may believe that one or two points cost her the match in a very close encounter. The Elina Svitolina defeat was much more straight-forward and I do wonder if the early exploits in the tournament have caught up with a player who may not have spent as much time on the court as she would have liked in the lead up to the Olympic Games.

Elina Svitolina has only recently married Gael Monfils and that may have taken her focus from the tennis so the run in Tokyo is something of a surprise. Even more so when you think of the inconsistent performances Svitolina has produced over the last twelve months and she has not really played at a very high level in the tournament, but has managed to get through to the Bronze Medal match by playing the big points better than her opponents have been able to do.

I do think she is going to have to improve dramatically from the Semi Final level if she is going to beat Elena Rybakina who had breezed through her first four matches before losing a break advantage in the final set of her Semi Final defeat to Belinda Bencic. The Rybakina serve has been a big weapon for her throughout this tournament and she has found a consistency on the return of serve which may just give the younger player an edge as she looks to Medal.

Elina Svitolina's serve is much more erratic and I do think it is a vulnerable part of her game which has prevented her kicking on and winning a Grand Slam. While she has won four matches here, the Ukrainian has not really been dominant on the return of serve either and I do think Elena Rybakina will get the better of her as long as the almost three hour Semi Final has not taken too much from her mentally and emotionally.

Before that match, Elena Rybakina has not really spent a lot of time on the court compared with Elina Svitolina who had multiple matches being played that lasted more than two hours on the court. She looked a little drained in the Semi Final defeat to Marketa Vondrousova and Elena Rybakina beat Elina Svitolina last month on a grass court when her serve was the key difference.

The hard court numbers produced by both players have been very similar over the last twelve months, but Elena Rybakina has been performing at a much better level in this tournament and I think she can conclude it with a Bronze Medal.


Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Over the last three years it has become clear that there isn't a dominant player on the WTA Tour and that has meant the big tournaments have been much more open for all who take part. It has led to a number of first time Grand Slam Champions and the Olympic Games five years ago saw Monica Puig win a Gold Medal.

Naomi Osaka was the favourite to win the Gold Medal this time around along with World Number 1 Ashleigh Barty, but both exited the tournament relatively early. Even then, you would be hard pressed to find too many people who would have tipped up Marketa Vondrousova versus Belinda Bencic in the Gold Medal match and this is easily going to be the biggest tournament won by either of these players.

It does mean there will be a new kind of pressure to deal with, but Marketa Vondrousova may be slightly better placed to deal with that. The Czech youngster reached the French Open Final in 2019 and so will know what it takes to perform in an environment like this one which may be a slight edge over Belinda Bencic who has not been beyond the Fourth Round at three of the four Grand Slams played and her best effort being one Semi Final run at the US Open a little under two years ago.

There is little doubt that Marketa Vondrousova has played the stronger tennis to this point of the tournament too after a difficult opening match. She has taken full advantage of using a Protected Ranking to enter the draw when her current World Ranking would not have been good enough to represent a loaded Czech Republic team, and Marketa Vondrousova's numbers have seen her consistently out-perform Belinda Bencic.

The Swiss player came through an incredibly tough Semi Final against Elena Rybakina, but Belinda Bencic was a little fortunate on the day having produced fewer break points than her opponent. It was a really long match too and you do have to wonder if that has sapped some of the energy she is going to need to challenge Marketa Vondrousova who has won their sole previous match, also on a hard court.

It was a victory in a tough three setter, but Marketa Vondrousova earned three times as many break points as Belinda Bencic and she has won more than 50% of return points in each of her last four matches. That is incredibly dangerous for Belinda Bencic who gave up 16 break points in her Semi Final win over Elena Rybakina and who has been struggling to earn easy service games in her last three matches.

Belinda Bencic is capable in her return game, but it has been a relative weakness in her performances on the hard courts in recent seasons. I think that will be the case in this Gold Medal match and I think Marketa Vondrousova will have enough to come through with the victory and the cover of this handicap mark.


Pablo Carreno Busta + 5.5 games v Novak Djokovic: In normal circumstances, Novak Djokovic will be a player who doesn't spend a lot of time playing Doubles Tennis alongside his Singles commitments and certainly not at a major event. However, a proud Serb wanted to represent his nation to the fullest of his abilities at the Olympic Games and that has meant Novak Djokovic took part in the Mixed Doubles as well as the Singles tournament in Tokyo.

Some of that may have caught up with him as he was beaten in three sets in the Semi Final of the Singles tournament and later followed up with a straight sets defeat in the Mixed Doubles.

The dream of a Golden Slam have thus ended in the defeat to Alexander Zverev and now Novak Djokovic will instead be contesting the Bronze Medal match for the third time. He won that Medal in 2008 and was then beaten to finish without a Medal in London in 2012, while Novak Djokovic will also be dealing with the disappointment of losing his opportunity to win a Gold Medal.

It may not be his last chance to do that, but in three years time you would expect Novak Djokovic to not be as strong as he is right now. With the best opportunity now behind him, I do wonder what kind of motivation Novak Djokovic can have in this Bronze Medal match after looking completely exhausted by the end of his match with Alexander Zverev.

That has to be encouraging for Pablo Carreno Busta after the Spaniard was convincingly beaten in the first Semi Final against Karen Khachanov despite going into the match as the favourite. Winning a Medal would be a major achievement for Carreno Busta so I expect him to come out with a little more energy than Novak Djokovic, while Pablo Carreno Busta has to think about trying to extend the rallies and see whether a tired World Number 1 can really find the extra energy needed to win a Medal that he would not have been targeting before the tournament began.

Novak Djokovic is clearly the better hard court player and he has had the better tournament all around compared with Pablo Carreno Busta. The latter may need something like a repeat of their famous match at the US Open last year when Novak Djokovic was Defaulted after knocking a ball to the back of the court which hit a Line Judge.

However, I do think Novak Djokovic may be more focused on the other Bronze Medal match he is competing in on Saturday. Winning in the Mixed Doubles as a part of a team will be more appealing to a player that has a Singles Bronze Medal at home already and that should give Pablo Carreno Busta a chance for the upset.

Overall it certainly makes it feel like the underdog can keep this close with the amount of games being given to him. Novak Djokovic may still dig in and show his class in the victory, but I can see him coasting at times to preserve some energy and it may give Pablo Carreno Busta an opportunity to at least keep things close on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Games: 23-17, + 2.96 Units (82 Units Staked, + 3.61% Yield)