Miami Masters Day 1 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 23rd)

There were always going to be questions as to how the Tennis Tour will deal with the multiple events that are scheduled around the world and whether it would be possible to draw the biggest names to those tournaments at a time when prize money has been drastically reduced.

Add in the different states of play as to how nations are dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic fifteen months into the outbreak and you can understand how players are feeling. As soon as the Indian Wells Masters was postponed for a second season in a row, the Miami Masters organisers must have feared whether the big names would arrive for a short trip to the United States before heading back to Europe for the start of the clay court season.

The ATP event being played in Miami has been decimated with almost a third of the top 100 players set to withdraw on the event of the tournament. Serena Williams has exited the WTA tournament being played at the same grounds, but that looks the better event being played with the majority of the top 20 outside of the American playing here.

The last hard court event of the Tour until the end of July will still be decent to watch, especially on the WTA side of things, but the loss of so many players means the door is open for a player on the ATP side of the bracket to come through and earn some big Ranking points before we return to the one year system later this season. On Tuesday, Day 1 of the main draws, the WTA First Round matches are scheduled before the ATP main draw gets underway the following day.

It will be a busy tournament, but hopefully we will get enough good Tennis to ignore the fact that this feels anything like a Masters event that it should have been.

The Tennis Picks have had a slow start to the 2021 season, but I have been convinced I have been lacking a bit of luck that could turn things around. That meant sticking with the criteria I have in determining which selections will be made on each day and last week I was rewarded with a very strong winning week.

That makes it back to back winning weeks on the Tour and I will look to keep the momentum going through the Miami Masters before the return of the clay court season which I did miss last season. The clay portion of the season is one of my favourites and I am looking forward to the time when I can return to Roland Garros and hopefully before Rafael Nadal calls it a day.

For now the concentration will be on the Miami Masters for the next two weeks and I will hopefully be able to back up the last two weeks.

Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 games v Anna Blinkova: Reaching the Final in Dubai may still be a spark for Barbora Krejcikova on the Singles court this season as she hit her career best Ranking earlier this month. Losing that Final will have hurt, but Krejcikova has had some time to get past that and look to have one more strong run on a hard court before the move onto the clay courts.

She enters the First Round against Anna Blinkova who has struggled for consistency over the last several months.

The Russian player is 9-18 on the hard courts in 2020 and 2021 combined and it has to be some concern for Anna Blinkova that she has only won a single match in a main draw on the hard courts this season. She did get through the Qualifiers in Doha, but Blinkova has now lost three matches in a row which includes losing her first matches in the two events she entered in Mexico over the last couple of weeks.

Her numbers have not been very good in 2021 and it has seen Anna Blinkova's second serve severely tested, while the return game has room for improvement. She has won fewer return points than Barbora Krejcikova, while Blinkova's numbers have taken a serious dent in her matches against players Ranked inside the top 100 this season.

The Barbora Krejcikova serve is not one that is going to overwhelm opponents, but she will certainly feel she can keep Blinkova under duress if the latter can't find a way to improve her 36% of return points won against top 100 opponents. When you see the matches that Anna Blinkova has faced, it is hard to believe she is going to have more success against an in-form Krejcikova and I think it could end in a routine win for the Czech favourite.

Their sole previous meeting came on the clay courts almost two years ago and it ended in a very one-sided win for Barbora Krejcikova. I think this one will be closer, but she should still have the edge on a player that is struggling on the return and it should mean Krejcikova is able to earn at least three more breaks of serve than Anna Blinkova over the course of the match.

That margin should give her every chance of not only winning the match, but covering this mark too.

Anastasia Potapova - 3.5 games v Ajla Tomljanovic: There is much to like about the way 19 year old Anastasia Potapova is developing and she will be keen to celebrate her 20th birthday in Miami. Much will depend on whether Potapova is able to work her way through the draw having reached the Dubai Quarter Final earlier this month, although she will also be a little disappointed with her showing that match against Barbora Krejcikova.

Anastasia Potapova also reached the Third Round at the Australian Open last month, but it will be important for her to begin to show some consistency to start making a real move up the World Rankings. Her numbers haven't been bad on the hard courts, but Potapova has to find a way to increase her first serve percentage to at least get on top of matches.

Too many second serves will give Ajla Tomljanovic every chance of getting on the front foot against Potapova with an aggressive return of serve likely to pay dividends. The Australian has a losing record on the hard courts top open 2021 and that is a concern considering she ended 2020 with a losing mark too, while Tomljanovic's own second serve has proved to be vulnerable.

It is hard to imagine Ajla Tomljanovic is going to be able to keep up her first serve percentage from her early matches in 2021, a mark that is around 7-8% higher than her average first serves hit in the recent seasons on the Tour. Anastasia Potapova has had better success looking after her second serve compared with Ajla Tomljanovic and it could be a key in determining the winner of this match.

These two have met once on the hard courts a little over twelve months ago and it was Anastasia Potapova who came out on top. That was a match in which she created over four times as many break points as Ajla Tomljanovic and I think Anastasia Potapova is going to be able to have the better of the return in this one which helps her edge over this mark.

MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

Anastasia Potapova - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Shelby Rogers - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Paula Badosa + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2021: - 1.98 Units (385.5 Units Staked, - 0.01% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2021- Lawrence Okolie vs Krzysztof Glowacki (March 20th)

I am a big Boxing fan, but there continues to be major problems with the sport and that is the terrible judging that seems to have become a common feature week to week.

Last weekend we saw another poor judging performance in the Juan Francisco Estrada win over Roman Gonzalez- the two cards that split the fighters 115/113 are understandable as there were some swing Rounds that could easily have given either a 7-5 win, but the third score of 117/111 in favour of the Mexican fighter has rightly been ridiculed.

The judge has been suspended and will be asked to explain his scorecard, but that isn't going to make Gonzalez feel better and it is the kind of margin which suggests he had very little chance of winning in that one judges eyes.

Personally I had Chocolatito winning 116/112, and it was clear that Estrada's corner were not convinced with the direction the fight was heading if you take their comments between Rounds at face value. They certainly wouldn't have had their Boxer plenty clear going into the Championship Rounds and it hurst the integrity of the sport when people are not rewarded for their hard work.

I will watch as I have always done, but it does hurt to see judges continue to make a mockery of the sport without facing real sanctions. Too many times the 'B' side is in a position where they have to Knock Out the name leading the bill to earn the right result in their favour, although right now even those fights would seemingly come away as draws.

Something has to be done, but I really don't have the full answers- perhaps those judges who constantly get within a Round of the consensus score should be pushed forward to score the biggest fights, but I think it will need more people within Boxing looking to clean things up before a real impact will be seen.

This weekend we have three cards going on of most interest and they take place in Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The best fight looks to be taking place in the early hours of the morning when Vergil Ortiz Jr takes on fellow Texan Maurice Hooker, but the United Kingdom will also be looking to crown a new World Champion in a card headlined by Lawrence Okolie.

Artur Beterbiev is back after a long lay off too, but he will be looking to send a statement out to the rest of the Light Heavyweight Division before resuming his bid to Unify.

Artur Beterbiev vs Adam Deines

The Number 1 fighter in the Light Heavyweight Division has long rumoured to be Artur Beterbiev, but it was his dismantling of Oleksandr Gvozdyk which confirmed the Russian is the man to beat at the 175 limit.

Unfortunately Beterbiev has not been in the ring in the last seventeen months since beating Gvozdyk and that has partly been down to the Covid-19 pandemic and partly down to injury and not finding an opponent ready to compete.

Even now there won't be too many excited to see Adam Deines lining up across the ring to Artur Beterbiev, but it will be good to get the WBC and IBF World Champion back out there as he looks to shake off some of the ring rust and then look for bigger fights in a pretty stacked Division later in the year.

Most are expecting Beterbiev to come in and rip through Adam Deines and I can't argue with that with little to suggest the German is deserving of his spot at this level. The one step up Deines has taken saw him beaten decisively on the cards by Fanlong Meng who had been the mandatory for Artur Beterbiev before deciding he was not able to travel for a bout.

The 19-1-1 record looks good on paper, but it is hard to read too much into that considering the level of opponent Adam Deines has long been dealing with.

He simply will not have matched up with someone of the calibre of Artur Beterbiev and I think we will learn very quickly about how much Deines is willing to withstand to try and win a World Title. There is no doubting how hard Beterbiev hits and he is someone who can pick his shots and break down what looks like being an overmatched opponent.

Over the last few months we have seen a number of fighters Ranked high up in some of the governing bodies look completely unprepared for the step up to take on World Champions. Some of those have not lasted too long and I do think this is going to be extremely difficult for Adam Deines who can't have found a way to prepare for the kind of onslaught that Artur Beterbiev is likely going to bring to the ring.

It may take a couple of Rounds to warm up for the Russian who has spent plenty of time out of the ring, while he has had some postponements to extend the time away. Artur Beterbiev also had to deal with Covid-19, but this is still the Number 1 fighter in the Light Heavyweight Division and I really don't think Adam Deines will see the second half of the fight.

The layers think the end could come very early, but it might take a couple of Rounds to shift the rust and then I would fully expect Artur Beterbiev to go through the gears and make a statement to the rest of the Division. It would be something for Adam Deines to hear the bell to signal the second half of the fight beginning, but I think Artur Beterbiev will start finding his range in Round Three and Round Four and I expect the finish to come around the Fourth/Fifth Round of this one.

Lawrence Okolie vs Krzysztof Glowacki

There are some big plans for Lawrence Okolie going forward, but much of them depend on whether he can keep putting the wins on the board as he continues fast-tracking his way to the top of the Cruiserweight Division. I have not been a big fan of some of the Okolie style which has led to punch and hug fights, but working under Shane McGuigan is going to benefit a fighter who has little amateur experience and is just 15-0 as a professional as he enters his first World Title fight.

He is going up against the experienced Krzysztof Glowacki who is a former two time WBO World Champion and trying to pick up a title he believes belongs to him.

With only two losses on his resume against Oleksandr Usyk and Maris Briedis you have to respect the Polish fighter and the latter of those losses was a very controversial one in the WBSS. Court appeals didn't go fully in the favour of Glowacki, but it did vacate the WBO Belt and he returns for the first time since losing to Briedis.

However that fight came in June 2019 and it is a long lay off for Glowacki and especially considering Lawrence Okolie will have fought three times since then and has earned some real momentum going into this World Title tilt. This is far from an easy fight for Okolie who won't have faced someone of the level of Glowacki who has beaten Marco Huck, Steve Cunningham and Maxim Vlasov and so is clearly capable of winning fights at the top level.

You have to worry a little about the fact that Huck put Glowacki down and the Polish fighter has been down a couple more times which is a concern going up against a big puncher like Okolie has shown himself to be. Unlike some of the other fighters that the British fighter has faced, I don't think Glowacki allows himself to fall into a punch and hug Decision loss and that should mean this is more action packed than a lot of Lawrence Okolie fights have been.

The feeling is that this fight has come along at the right time for Lawrence Okolie and he can get the better of a game Krzysztof Glowacki with his superior length and power likely to eventually tell. His confidence is something I have noted and I do think Okolie believes it is his time, while the amount of time spent out of the ring for the Polish former Champion could be hard to shake off completely.

Being on the canvass a few times already in his career doesn't bode well and, although Glowacki is plenty experienced and shown his talent at a World level, I think Lawrence Okolie will find a way to wear him down and become the second fighter to stop the Pole.

It would be a surprise if Okolie comes out all guns blazing early, but his confidence may pick up and he can call it a relatively early night by finding some big shots in the second half of this Championship fight to get the referee to step in.

Chris Billam-Smith vs Vasil Ducar

This should have been a British Title tilt for Chris Billam-Smith, but a withdrawal from his opponent means he will be in a tick along fight with better to come in the weeks and months ahead.

A single loss on the record is one that Billam-Smith will want to set right, but he remains on a good path and picking up the Commonwealth Title means his Ranking will be move on up.

Ten wins out of eleven have come by Stoppage and not many have been able to earn their way into the second half of fights against him. The feeling is that he is going up against a durable opponent who has yet to be stopped, but one who has not really fought at Chris Billam-Smith's level.

Vasil Ducar might be stubborn, but Chris Billam-Smith hits hard and early and nine of his wins have come inside six Rounds. I think he will want to get this routine fight out of the way and possibly have that British Title shot against Deion Jumah in the first half of the 2021 calendar year before pushing on to bigger and better things.

To do that, Chris Billam-Smith has to try and avoid injury and make sure he can get straight back in the gym as soon as possible, and it could mean pushing for another early night here.

Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Maurice Hooker

There isn't much more the locals will want to see than an up and coming Texan looking to continue his march upwards in the World Rankings as he takes on a veteran from the same State who is a former World Champion.

Maurice Hooker's World Title came in the 140 pound Division, but a blow out loss to Jose Carlos Ramirez saw him make the decision to move up to 147 and compete with the big names there. A win will certainly give Hooker a chance to do that, but he is coming up against a young and hungry Vergil Ortiz Jr who has won all sixteen fights by Knock Out.

It feels like the matchmaking has been good for Ortiz Jr and stopping Samuel Vargas in his last fight and now taking on a former World Champion will keep the momentum going in what is a loaded Division. I don't think he is ready to take on the absolute elite of the 147 Division, but Vergil Ortiz Jr can surge up the World Rankings by winning this fight and most factors seem in his favour.

There is no doubt that Maurice Hooker will be looking to test him, but I feel standing in front of Ortiz Jr and trying to trade with the younger fighter is not going to end well for Hooker. It is hard to imagine that too much of the mindset has changed for Maurice Hooker who has a tendency to fight fire with fire and against a puncher like Vergil Ortiz Jr I do think it is a matter of time before the veteran is broken down and stopped.

I am sure Vergil Ortiz Jr has targeted a quicker stoppage than the one Jose Carlos Ramirez produced against Maurice Hooker, but I also think the latter is going to be aware of that and try to box clever. We have yet to see an opponent push Ortiz Jr into the Eighth Round or further and I am not sure Maurice Hooker's style will see him get to that point.

He was Knocked Down in the First Round by Ramirez and Hooker will have to be aware of the power that Ortiz Jr carries at all time. I think he will likely try and keep this long, but Vergil Ortiz Jr can start breaking him down around the Fourth or Fifth Round and I think the finish will come pretty soon after as Maurice Hooker tries to trade to push back his younger opponent.

Vergil Ortiz Jr does look a legitimate top quality operator in the making who is pushing towards a big fight with Terence Crawford and I think he can get a few more eyes on him after a dominating win. Four of the last five fighters faced by Ortiz Jr have gotten into the Fifth Round before the finish comes and I think that may be the case here as the young, exciting fighter ends this crossroads fight in the middle Rounds.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 4-6 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.33 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Chris Billam-Smith to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Vergil Ortiz Jr to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2021: 6-11, - 3.58 Units (32 Units Staked, - 11.18% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (March 19-21)

I honestly don't know how players feel, but they have to be understandably exhausted if us fans are beginning to feel the amount of Football that has been played over the last few months.

With an upcoming international break, the players will at least get to stay in a different environment for a few days and that is an opportunity to just reset after a busy number of months across the top European Leagues. It is important to recover both physically and mentally considering the congested manner of the last two months of the season as Leagues look to complete their schedules before the Euro 2020 Tournament begins in June.

Big matches are coming up, but the two week break will be nice for me personally and I do think it will just help a few get over some niggles and make sure they ready for the tough two months to come.

The Fantasy Football game will have a break too, but I will get onto that below once I put down my thoughts on the four Premier League games scheduled to be played this weekend.

Fulham v Leeds United Pick: This is not a very busy Premier League weekend with only four games scheduled around the FA Cup Quarter Final matches that set to be completed. The opening Premier League game comes from Craven Cottage where Fulham will host Leeds United in what is a very important game for both teams.

A win for Fulham would actually take them out of the bottom three for twenty-four hours at least and also peg back both Burnley and Brighton who earned important away wins last weekend. On the other side, a win for Leeds United will mean they are on the brink of reaching 40 points from the season and would end any lingering concerns of being dragged back into a relegation battle.

Both teams failed to score against Big Six opponents at home last weekend, but Leeds United will have been a lot happier with the point against Chelsea than Fulham were in being comprehensively beaten by Manchester City on this ground.

Leeds United have now failed to score in 3 Premier League games and they have also lost their last 3 away League games with the latter 2 coming in games where they failed to score. Chances continue to be created which makes Leeds United dangerous, but Marcelo Bielsa will be demanding a better composure in the final third.

They should have some opportunities against a Fulham team who have shown better defensive solidity in the last couple of months, but who have allowed Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City to create big chances here. Even Sheffield United had their moments in a 1-0 defeat to Fulham at Craven Cottage and Leeds United will play with a certain style that will always seen men pushed forward into attacking areas.

Fulham have also been lacking goals in recent home games with a single strike in 6 at Craven Cottage in all competitions. There is still a feeling that Fulham are perhaps not being as clinical as they should be despite the arrival of Josh Maja and that has let them down despite getting into promising positions against the likes of West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur in recent games here.

Scott Parker's team are likely to cause one or two problems for Leeds United too and the away team have not produced too many draws this season. Both teams hitting the net would not be a surprise in what should be decent conditions to play football and all 3 games between these teams since August 2019 have ended with three or more goals shared out.

A 2-1 scoreline either way would not surprise me at all and I think we will see goals in this fixture as Fulham and Leeds United chase valuable points.

Brighton v Newcastle United Pick: For much of the season Brighton and Newcastle United have been performing in very different ways with the former underperforming compared to their underlying stats and the latter perhaps picking up some fortunate points.

Losing some key attacking players has just blunted the Newcastle United effectiveness in the final third, but they have been better in recent home games. However The Magpies somehow left West Brom with a goalless draw and the feeling is they are going to have to ride their luck to earn any kind of positive result here.

In the last couple of games Brighton's underlying numbers have not been as impressive as they have been for much of the season, but they did earn an important, confidence boosting win over Southampton last weekend. Prior to that Brighton have somehow found a way to lose matches where they have deserved so much more, but the win over Southampton may have just given the team a boost that they can carry into this fixture.

Brighton have conceded late to lose back to back home games against Crystal Palace and Leicester City, but they were perhaps the better team in both fixtures. The latter defeat was a tighter game, but Brighton hammered rivals Crystal Palace and manager Graham Potter is perhaps still struggling to work out how his team failed to win.

They should be able to create chances against this Newcastle United team who have been more vulnerable away from home, although The Magpies have shown some resiliency. 3 draws in a row underlines the point even if they should have lost at The Hawthorns during that run and I imagine Steve Bruce will look for his side to be well organised defensively and perhaps steal a result.

Three points are very important to both teams and the tension will only increase if Fulham have been able to beat Leeds United on Friday. That should make this a tight, competitive fixture, but my feeling is that Brighton can find a way to double up their home wins for the season.

It is unlikely to be a really high-scoring game considering the struggles both Brighton and Newcastle United have had turning chances into goals in the final third, but The Seagulls may be the more dangerous. That is largely down to the fact that Newcastle United could go into the fixture without their three main attacking threats and I think a narrow home win is the most likely outcome of the fixture.

West Ham United v Arsenal Pick: This is an important London derby for both West Ham United and Arsenal who are looking for valuable points that could be key in determining how the European spots are shared out at the end of the season.

At this stage of the season Mikel Arteta is still looking for some consistency from his Arsenal team, but he would have been pleased to see his side reach the Europa League Quarter Final during the week. The 0-1 home defeat in the Second Leg of the Last 16 tie would have stung, but Arteta will believe his team only have themselves to blame having created some big opportunities and been wasteful in front of goal.

In recent games Arsenal have been creating plenty of chances and in the main they have been producing the end product to their football which has meant a decent run being put together. The defeat to Olympiacos will have just stifled some of the momentum, but Arsenal will feel they can hurt a West Ham United team who have not defended as well as their results may suggest.

The Hammers have 4 clean sheets in their last 7 games in all competitions in normal time, and they have won 6 of their last 7 at home. Since losing to Liverpool in the Premier League, West Ham United have won 3 League games in a row here and they have scored at least twice in each of those victories.

David Moyes has Jesse Lingard back this week, but he will still want his West Ham United team to show a little more ambition going forward. They will pose a real threat from set pieces and West Ham United have pace and power in the final third which should challenge an Arsenal team that played during the week while the home team were training and recovering.

Both teams should have the chances to hit the back of the net, and 4 of the last 6 between Arsenal and West Ham United have ended with at least three goals shared out.

An early goal could really spark this fixture and I think the amount of chances both created and allowed by the two teams should see a high-scoring game being produced. My narrow edge is with West Ham United to earn a positive result, but a 2-1 scoreline either way would not be a massive surprise in this one.

Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This has been a remarkably difficult week for Tottenham Hotspur who had led 0-1 at Arsenal before losing the North London derby and followed that up by blowing a 2-0 lead over Dinamo Zagreb to exit the Europa League in a 3-0 defeat in the Croatian capital.

The latter loss is one that clearly has stung Jose Mourinho who struggled to explain what had happened, while Hugo Lloris did not mince his words as he essentially pointed fingers at some of his team-mates for the poor performance.

I would have expected Tottenham Hotspur to have a reaction to the loss to Arsenal in the North London derby, but they were sloppy and lacking confidence in the defeat in Zagreb on Thursday. The performance was truly unexpected, and the pressure is on the players to be much better on Sunday as they look to try and close in on the top four places in the Premier League.

Heung-Min Son and Erik Lamela are both expected to miss out and that is a blow for Tottenham Hotspur.

Even then they should have a chance to show they are much better than the last couple of results as Tottenham Hotspur head to Villa Park to take on an Aston Villa team who have been struggling for consistency.

Aston Villa have only scored two goals in their last 4 Premier League games and only poor finishing from Wolves and Newcastle United helped Dean Smith's men earn draws in the last couple of League games. Defensively the results have been better than the underlying numbers and it is hard to ignore how inconsistent Aston Villa have been in the final third without Jack Grealish.

The midfielder could be back this weekend, but Aston Villa have lost half of their last 4 home Premier League games and there is still plenty of talent available to Jose Mourinho. I don't think this will be an easy game for either team, and Tottenham Hotspur are travelling back from Croatia which could sap some energy.

If the players have perhaps given up on Jose Mourinho it could leave Tottenham Hotspur vulnerable, but there has to be some personal pride that will be on display here. The loss at Dinamo Zagreb will have stung so many inside the Tottenham Hotspur dressing room, but they are facing a team that have given up some big chances and the likes of Lucas Moura, Gareth Bale and Harry Kane could hurt Aston Villa.

As bad as the result was at Dinamo Zagreb, Tottenham Hotspur can bounce back here and I think they can be backed on the Asian Handicap against an Aston Villa team who will offer some big chances to their visitors.

MY PICKS: Fulham-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals

Brighton to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

West Ham United-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur 0 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 29

I have made it clear for some time that my Free Hit would be used in a different way than I would usually have used it in a Fantasy Football season and it is going to be activated for the four Premier League games to be played this weekend.

I simply do not have a squad that is capable of managing this GW and my Wild Card and Triple Captain Chips are still in hand- the news that the Premier League could push back a Round of fixtures to ensure clubs get to play one home and one away game in front of fans means there could be a bigger DGW left than most have anticipated with the FA Cup Finalists now 'blanking' rather than having a fixture pushed on between GW37 (FA Cup Final Weekend) and GW38.

Hopefully we are going to get more clarification on plans in the two week international break, but the Free Hit looks to be of most use to me this weekend to make sure I have a full fifteen players ready to go.

So who am I looking to target?

From the defensive side of the field all of the numbers are suggesting Brighton have to be the team considered most likely to earn a clean sheet.

Both West Ham United and Arsenal have decent underlying numbers, while Tottenham Hotspur could benefit from facing a goal-shy Aston Villa even coming in off the quite staggering Extra Time upset at Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday.

Fulham and Leeds United feel like they could be involved in a high-scoring game so the attacking options from both teams have to be considered.

The underlying numbers from an attacking point of view suggests an early goal could really spark the fixture, and it is a week where risks can be taken in a bid to get closer to those leading the Mini Leagues you may be involved in.

There are some players that have gotten some traction in the FPL Community that are worth a second look, but the injury to Heung-Min Son is a blow for Tottenham Hotspur's attacking threat and especially after the Extra Time that was needed a few days ago. Jack Grealish's potential return will mean Aston Villa are at least looking a little better going forward, while I think some differentials should be selected if only to try and produce a strong GW.

The Captain selection doesn't look very easy aside from going with Harry Kane, but this is something I will think about right through to the deadline.

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 19th)

This is proving to be a very good week for the Tennis Picks, but Thursday evening was a busy one for me which means I have not had the time to write out full selections from the tournament matches scheduled to be played on Friday.

I will add any selections from the two events being played in Mexico once those matches are put together through the night and hopefully a strong end to the week can put an exclamation point on the results produced so far.

Those weekly totals will be updated in this thread once the two selections from Thursday's matches in Mexico have been completed.

MY PICKS: Lloyd Harris-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-7, + 8.56 Units (38 Units Staked, + 22.53% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 18th)

The first Masters event of the season is fast approaching and that means the Tournaments being played this week may be looking to move through their schedules a little quicker than would usually be the case.

It will give players the chance to travel to Miami and make sure they are ready to compete in an event that comes with some major Ranking points. While we are yet to see a change in the system that was set up to make up for the pandemic affected 2020 season, it is important for players to put some strong results on the board with the usual one year Ranking approach set to return before the US Open begins in August.

I am sympathetic to some of the players who have complained about the current Ranking system which has players in artificial positions, especially as those Rankings are used for Seedings when it comes to the Masters and Grand Slam events which perhaps makes the draws more lopsided than they should be.

It is something that may be worth noting when we get into the clay court season when three Masters events are played before the French Open begins at the end of May and I do think it could end up making one half of that tournament look a lot tougher than the other. It is unlikely that either Tour will change their mind about the Ranking system before the date they have in mind, while Wimbledon have regularly used their own formula for Seeding to balance their tournament.

Frustrations are understandable from some of the players on the Tour, but they need to remain focused on their own on court performances to ensure a more 'realistic' Ranking is awarded to them in August.

The Tennis Picks have had a couple of good days in Dubai, but I am not sure if Wednesday will have produced a winning day until the ATP Acapulco Second Round matches are completed. Those are being played through the night for those of us in the United Kingdom so I will update the weekly totals on Thursday.

At that time I will add any selections from the Acapulco tournament as well as the WTA Monterrey event being played this week.

I haven't found a selection I have liked at the WTA St Petersburg event through the first four days of that tournament, but the Quarter Finals in Dubai look to offer some Picks that fit my criteria.

Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: For the second match in a row Jeremy Chardy has come from a set down to win his match and it is the third time this week in Dubai that he has needed to win a decider to move through the draw. The wins have added to the successes Jeremy Chardy has already experienced in the 2021 season, but he has not had it easy this week and the level is going to have to be significantly better if the Frenchman is able to earn a spot in another Semi Final.

The question for Jeremy Chardy has to be how long he can sustain his wins even though his numbers are not quite as good as the 13-5 record on the hard courts would suggest. He has won 62% of service points played in 2021, while Chardy has won 36% of return points and I think he is perhaps a touch fortunate to have produced as many wins as he has.

Even this week Jeremy Chardy has come through at clutch moments in matches where he has been a little fortunate to work his way through.

Jeremy Chardy has held 88% of his service games played this week and broken in 18% of return games on what is a quick surface in Dubai. He has actually faced more break points than he has created in two of the three matches played so far in the tournament and Jeremy Chardy is going to have to be stronger to get the better of Denis Shapovalov who is enjoying his time in this part of the Middle East.

The Canadian lefty is considered a potential star on the ATP Tour, but his return numbers on the hard courts have let Denis Shapovalov down in recent seasons. There is no doubting how well Shapovalov can serve and how tough it can be to break his serve on the hard courts, but his two wins in Dubai have been based on surprising returning success.

He has faced two relatively tough servers in Jan-Lennard Struff and Hubert Hurkacz, but Denis Shapovalov has won 45% of the return points played which is an extremely impressive return. That has led to breaks of serve in 38% of return games played and a similar level will put Jeremy Chardy under intense pressure in this Quarter Final and especially if the Frenchman is feeling any fatigue from his exploits already.

The conditions are clearly suiting the aggressive Denis Shapovalov approach and he has faced just three break points in his two wins and has yet to drop serve. Again that should build the pressure on Jeremy Chardy and I do like the Canadian's chances of moving through to the Semi Final behind a good win.

These two players have played six competitive sets against each other and Denis Shapovalov has held serve in 96% of service games played. Compare that to the Jeremy Chardy 79% mark and it feels like Shapovalov will have an edge in the Quarter Final even if the two previous matches between the players were played in 2018.

In the time since they last met it does feel like Denis Shapovalov has been doing the more improving on the court and I think he will find the breaks of serve to win and cover this mark.

Aslan Karatsev v Jannik Sinner: There have been times at the end of the last two matches where Aslan Karatsev has shown some nerves as he has struggled to close out his wins. It is slightly surprising to see that happen to a player who looked so comfortable in his Grand Slam Semi Final run in Melbourne last month, but you also have to credit Karatsev for actually overcoming those nerves and winning the matches.

He has needed to win a final set decider in each of the last two matches and Aslan Karatsev has needed over four and a half hours on the court to beat Daniel Evans and Lorenzo Sonego. The Russian at a career best World Ranking has also played one more match than his opponent in this Quarter Final and that means he has spent considerably more time on the court than Jannik Sinner.

In saying that, Jannik Sinner has needed slightly less than four and a half hours to win his two matches in Dubai and both have come in three sets. The Italian looks like having all the tools to become one of the better players on the Tour as he develops his game and experience, while Sinner's numbers on the hard courts have to be respected.

However Jannik Sinner may have been a little fortunate in both of his wins this week having created fewer break points than his opponents in each. The Italian has struggled in his return game with just 30% of return points won and Jannik Sinner has earned a break in just 16% of return games played on the faster surface that has been laid down in Dubai.

He has shown resiliency and mental strength despite that, but I do think Aslan Karatsev can challenge Sinner in this Quarter Final and certainly more than the layers believe.

Aslan Karatsev will feel he can get a touch more out of his serve, but he has held at a very similar number as Jannik Sinner and that will be encouraging despite the improvement that can be made. Where there is a marked difference is in the return of serve and Aslan Karatsev is winning just shy of 40% of return points played in Dubai this week which has given the Russian an opportunity to break in 28% of return games, a number that is significantly stronger than Jannik Sinner's mark.

The player who can cope with the long matches that they have been involved in will be in a strong position to reach the Semi Final here, but I do think Aslan Karatsev is being underrated with all things considered. The Russian has produced the stronger hard court tennis in 2021 in general, but he also looks to be playing the better tennis of the two players in Dubai this week.

Barring Aslan Karatsev being completely shattered physically, I think he has the tennis to get the better of Jannik Sinner and he looks a big priced underdog worth backing.

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: These two are going to be sick of seeing each other in the same portion of the draw as we get set for what would have been the third meeting in three straight weeks between Marton Fucsovics and Andrey Rublev. Only the fact that Fucsovics pulled out of the match in Doha has prevented that happening, but two in-form players have made their way through to this Quarter Final.

They met in the Final in Rotterdam earlier this month and it was Andrey Rublev who took the title home after a very tough two set battle. With that in mind it may seem strange to see the Russian player being asked to cover a number like this one, but Andrey Rublev has been playing at an extremely high level for months now and he could have easily won by a more comfortable score than the 7-6, 6-4 win in Rotterdam would suggest.

In that Final, Andrey Rublev faced four break points compared with the six Marton Fucsovics had to deal with, but that doesn't tell the full story. The former had to deal with those break points in the first game of the match and didn't face much pressure the rest of the way through, while Andrey Rublev only broke once on the day despite creating break points in four different games.

It won't take much for Rublev to put more distance between himself and Fucsovics if there is a slightly different bounce of the ball in his favour if he is still returning as well as he has been. Andrey Rublev has been very strong on the return of serve and has won 40% of return points played on the surface in 2021, while improving that mark to 44% in his two comfortable wins in Dubai.

What makes Andrey Rublev very impressive and a potential mainstay in the top 10 of the World Rankings going forward is that he has backed up the impressive numbers on the return by looking after his serve very well. The Russian has not been broken in this tournament and he has held 89% of the service games played on the hard courts in 2021 which follows the 88% mark on the surface in 2020.

Marton Fucsovics looks like he could be putting a career year together, but he has already spent a lot of time on the court and you do wonder if that has an impact on him. Last week he had issues with his back and while we have yet to see them in Dubai, it is something of concern for a player who has needed three sets in all three wins to reach the Quarter Final.

That has meant spending a considerable amount of time on the court and Marton Fucsovics' numbers on both the serve and return are slightly inferior to Andrey Rublev's.

These two players have a 2-2 head to head record against one another, but it is Rublev who has won the last two matches as he continues his improvement in becoming one of the top players on the ATP Tour. He managed to hold Marton Fucsovics down to winning just 28% of the return points played when these two met in Rotterdam and I think this time Andrey Rublev is able to work to a couple more breaks of serve which will give him every chance of covering this handicap spread.

MY PICKS: Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-5, + 5.32 Units (28 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 17th)

The four tournaments being played this week are moving into the middle of the week and that means the Second Round will begin in most.

Dubai is a different story with the Third Round scheduled to be completed in a single day as we approach Saturday's Final and that means it is the busiest of the events on Wednesday with eight matches scheduled to be played.

My focus remains on the Tennis being played in Dubai with none of the four matches in the WTA event in St Petersburg appealing through the numbers. There do look to be some tight and competitive matches that will need to be played in Dubai in the Third Round, but I have found three selections which you can read below.

I will update the weekly totals on Wednesday when I will add any Picks from the two tournaments being played in Mexico.

It was a decent day on Tuesday from the Tennis Picks made in Dubai, but the overall performance of the day will depend on how the selection from Acapulco goes through the night. Either way it is good to put a winning day on the board anyway and means there is something to build upon as we approach the end of the tournaments before the few days break ahead of the Miami Masters.

Jeremy Chardy-Karen Khachanov over 22.5 games: Throughout his career, Jeremy Chardy has been a decent if unspectacular hard court player and the last month since the First Round defeat at the Australian Open has been strong for the Frenchman. He Qualified for the main draw in Rotterdam and went on to reach the Quarter Final in the ATP 500 event, and two good looking wins have been produced in Dubai.

Jeremy Chardy came from a set down to beat a solid Alex De Minaur in the Second Round and the only real concern has to be the amount of time spent on the court through the first three days at the tournament.

To win a match like this, Jeremy Chardy will know he needs to get a little more out of the serve to keep Karen Khachanov at bay, especially as the Russian is still serving at a very high level. However Khachanov is a player that has struggled on his return of serve and so the key for Jeremy Chardy is to not give a service game or two away.

Karen Khachanov has made a decent start to 2021 in terms of his results with a couple of Quarter Final runs on the hard courts and another Semi Final run, but the return numbers continue to put some pressure on his own serve. His numbers have been consistent on that side of his game with around 36-37% of return points won, but it has also meant he has broken in around 20-21% of return games played and perhaps means the Russian gets involved in too many tight matches that sees him run out of gas the longer he is involved in a tournament.

The win over Alexei Popyrin will give Karen Khachanov confidence, while he is holding almost 89% of service games played on the hard courts. That makes Khachanov dangerous and especially if Jeremy Chardy is not able to keep himself focused behind the serve having dropped it five times already in this tournament, but I do feel the underdog can at least keep the match competitive.

Their sole previous match came on a hard court and it was won 7-6, 7-6 by Karen Khachanov on a day where only three break points were faced by Jeremy Chardy and neither player saw their serve broken. With the faster conditions we have seen in Dubai, a strong serving day from the two involved could see this total games mark surpassed even in a straight sets win for either player.

Aslan Karatsev - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: There is no doubting that every experience facing Aslan Karatsev is going to feel pretty new to a player who has only recently made his way into the top 100 of the World Rankings. The unexpected run to the Australian Open Semi Final will have made many aware of the Russian player, while it also means Aslan Karatsev is no longer flying under the radar, but is playing with a target on his back.

Some nerves have been on display in his two wins in Dubai this week, but the manner in which Karatsev held himself together to finally see off Daniel Evans in the Second Round figures to stand him in good stead. He did need almost two and a half hours on the court to earn his way into the Third Round and there is a potential for some fatigue with matches being played each day, but Aslan Karatsev could have easily won the match in straight sets if not throwing away a game when leading 4-3, 40-0 in the second set which was eventually lost 4-6.

There is room for improvement in the level being produced this week and that has to be encouraging for Aslan Karatsev- winning matches without being at your best will only increase the confidence of any player and I think he can get the better of this opponent in the Third Round.

That is not to take anything away from Lorenzo Sonego who won his opening match here in routine fashion and so should be much more rested than Karatsev. The numbers produced by the Italian are strong overall, but he holds a 4-5 record on the hard courts in 2021 and I do have to note that Lorenzo Sonego's stats have been improved massively by the fact he has played three opponents Ranked outside the top 100.

Lorenzo Sonego has lost three straight matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, although the serve is a potent weapon and has to be respected. This season Lorenzo Sonego has held almost 87% of the service games played on the surface and is winning just under 69% of points played on his serve and those are numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents he has faced.

They are certainly numbers that make Sonego dangerous, but his main issue has been the struggles on the return of serve and breaking in under 15% of return games will put pressure on him. Lorenzo Sonego has broken in 14.6% of return games played against the top 100 players he has met in 2021 and that is very similar to the 14.4% mark when considering his overall career against the top 100 on this surface.

Aslan Karatsev has been returning pretty effectively all season and I do think that edge will see him come through this match, although it would be a surprise if we didn't see one tie-breaker. The 'secret weapon' of the Russian team at the ATP Cup impressed with his returning in Australia in his run to the Semi Final, but he has maintained a strong level when playing in the Middle East over the last couple of weeks and has won 39% of return points played while forcing breaks of serve in 27% of return games played.

His serve might not have the same kind of numbers as Lorenzo Sonego, but Karatsev protects it plenty well enough to win this match and get over the mark as long as the win over Daniel Evans hasn't taken too much out of the gas tank.

Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: If there has been any lingering issue with the back that forced the withdrawal in Doha last week, Marton Fucsovics has not shown too many signs of it with his run to the Third Round in Dubai. He has spent over four and a half hours on the court to come from a set down in each of the first two matches played here and Fucsovics continues to perform at a high level which will give him confidence through the remainder of the first half of the hard court season.

At this stage it would be a surprise if Marton Fucsovics did not produce his most wins on the hard courts since 2018 and it is the improvement on the serve which have been most evident to open 2021. There had been a decline in both the percentage of service games held and service points won in his hard court matches in each of the past three seasons, but Marton Fucsovics has held 85% of his service games in the fourteen hard court matches played this season.

He has improved his service points won to 66% from what has been a consistent 60.5% mark over the couple of seasons on the surface and you simply can't ignore that improvement which has also come with improved results.

Marton Fucsovics has long been a comfortable returner on the hard courts and he has lost none of his effectiveness on that side of his game while improving his serve. He beat Dusan Lajovic in straight sets last week in Doha and the Hungarian had a considerable edge when it comes to the service performance in that match which makes me feel he can frank the win in another part of the Middle East.

The real difference between the players on the hard courts have come in the returning performances in recent seasons, but Dusan Lajovic will feel more pressure if he cannot produce a better service day. The Serb has a decent pop from his serve and he can be very good on his best day, but Lajovic has only broken in 19% of return games played in 2021 compared with the 26% mark that Marton Fucsovics has produced and that can be the difference in this Third Round match.

The strange Ranking formula still being used means Dusan Lajovic is considerably higher than Marton Fucsovics in the World Rankings and earned a Bye into the Second Round. He was a comfortable winner in the Second Round against veteran Malek Jaziri, but Dusan Lajovic's numbers have taken a significant dent when facing top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts this season and he has lost three of his last four matches against those opponents.

This is a considerable mark for Marton Fucsovics to cover, but I think he can get the better of the returning numbers that will lead to a similar kind of win as the one he put up over Dusan Lajovic in Doha last week.

MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy-Karen Khachanov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas-John Isner Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-3, + 4.06 Units (18 Units Staked, + 22.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 16th)

There was only Pick made on Monday and it is one that has kind of underlined the situation of the season which I feel is the most difficult to predict.

As I mentioned in the thread yesterday, Tennis is a game of inches and ultimately you need those to go in your favour if you are going to put a winner on the board. Marton Fucsovics won the match, but he didn't cover and the key moment may have been at 4-2 in the first set.

The Hungarian was at 0-40 on the Vasek Pospisil serve, but failed to convert any of SIX break points in that game and the disappointment seeped into the next service game as he dropped the set 6-2 before turning things around with a 7-5, 6-4 scoreline to win the match in three sets.

A slight bounce of the ball going his way may have seen the turnaround begin much earlier, but at worst he would have had a much better opportunity to cover rather than dropping a set by a couple of breaks of serve.

It is what it is, but one of those factors you simply cannot predict as you look for your selections to make sure they play as clean a match as possible... Or at least avoid the big set scoreline being dropped which has been a really unfortunate habit for those I have picked despite many of them coming back and winning the match as Marton Fucsovics did on Monday.

The Tennis Picks from Tuesday focus on the deep amount of matches that are set to be played in Dubai with the large majority of the Second Round matches scheduled to be completed over the course of the day.

I've had a slightly busier evening than envisioned, but my selections can be seen below as I look for a strong return to get this week into a positive position.

MY PICKS: Aslan Karatsev @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexei Popyrin-Karen Khachanov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.74 Units (8 Units Staked, - 9.25% Yield)