Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2025 (Saturday 18th January)

The tournament keeps rolling ahead and there were some fabulous matches played on Day 6, which only bodes well for the rest of the Australian Open.

We have already seen some top Fourth Round matches put together, but the second week lineup is yet to be completed and that is the focus for Day 7 at the tournament.

A 2-2 record for the Tennis Picks was a little disappointing on Friday, but it could have been worse and the five selections from the matches to take place on Saturday can be read below.

Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Danielle Collins: A really good story usually revolves around a hero and a villain and both are needed.

There is little doubt that the villain in this Third Round match is going to be Danielle Collins after her Second Round celebrations angered an entire nation. Beating a home Qualifier is one thing, but Collins made sure she let the crowd know exactly what she thought of them and you just know those in attendance will be fired up to give some back.

It doesn't help that a popular and easy to like Madison Keys is standing on the other side of the net and the lower Ranked of the two American players begins as the favourite.

Madison Keys has always had the game to challenge for a Grand Slam title, but the mentality has perhaps not been as strong as needed to really get over the line. 2024 was also a tough year for Keys, on the court anyway, but the early form in 2025 is very positive and the World Number 14 has won nine of the ten matches played, including winning the title in Auckland.

Even the sole defeat to Clara Tauson has been franked considering how tough the latter played Aryna Sabalenka here in Melbourne and so Madison Keys will come into the match filled with confidence.

In saying that, Madison Keys might be the first to admit that she has not found her best level in her first two wins in this tournament and she is going to have to step up her tennis when facing Danielle Collins, the World Number 11.

Postponing her planned retirement, Danielle Collins arrives in Melbourne having as a former Australian Open Finalist.

She reached the Final in 2022, but the last two appearances at the Australian Open have been disappointing and Collins has made heavy work of beating two players Ranked well outside the top 100. The serve is not working quite as well as Danielle Collins would hope and that has put pressure on her return, which can be a problem for this American player on the hard courts.

The two players know each other well, which should just help settle any nerves, and knowing what to expect from the other side of the court makes planning that much easier.

Both will be relying on the serve to set up the whole direction of the match, but Madison Keys looks to have a slight advantage in her current level behind that shot.

She has also won the last two professional matches between herself and Danielle Collins and both of those victories have been in dominant fashion. A fast start could really help Madison Keys with the crowd likely to get on top of Danielle Collins and make things uncomfortable as they can be on the court and it could end up seeing the World Number 11 just fall away, allowing Madison Keys to win and cover the line set for this Third Round match.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Emma Raducanu: The popularity she enjoys amongst the tennis fanbase has certainly helped Iga Swiatek move past a controversial one month suspension for failing a drugs test. The authorities accepted it was an accidental failure, but many of the players around the World Number 2 have voiced their criticism as to what they feel is lenient punishment and arguably a lot less than so many others have had to face.

Some even believe it is Iga Swiatek's status as one of the top female players in the world that has almost forced the authorities to want to sweep things under the carpet, much like the criticism the ATP have faced for their handling of Jannik Sinner's case.

That is actually being challenged by those who conduct the testing, but Iga Swiatek's case sounds like it has been decided, even if some are very disappointed by the outcome.

The Number 2 Seed at the Australian Open is the dominant player on the clay courts, but Iga Swiatek has only ever made one Semi Final in Melbourne. She is clearly capable of performing very well on the hard courts having won the US Open and she has won hard court titles at the Masters level, but Iga Swiatek will know her overall Grand Slam record outside of the French Open needs to be improved.

Iga Swiatek's hard court numbers certainly suggest she has been underachieving at the two Slams played on the surface and the Pole has made another strong start on the surface. A defeat to Coco Gauff at the United Cup is the sole defeat Iga Swiatek has faced this season and her two wins in Melbourne have been solid enough to put her in a deserved favouritism spot for this Third Round match.

Another US Open Champion is standing in the way, but suffice to say Emma Raducanu has not been able to reach those heights again as injury and a loss of form has held her back. The British player had climbed up to World Number 10 eleven months after winning the US Open as a Qualifier, but Emma Raducanu has fallen to 61 in the years since and really struggled for a consistent impact on the Tour.

Underlining the statement is the fact that this is only the second time Emma Raducanu has made the Third Round of a Grand Slam since her shocking success in New York City and she has made the second week just once.

That was at Wimbledon in July 2024, but this is the first time Emma Raducanu will be playing in the Third Round at either the US Open or Australian Open since winning the former in September 2021.

Returning has been the key to her two wins in Melbourne this week, but Raducanu has been struggling with her serve and it is going to be very tough to contain the Number 2 Seed in the draw. She may feel she can return well enough to challenge Iga Swiatek, but failing to protect her own serve will keep the pressure on the lower Ranked player and this has all of the makings of a relatively serene win for the Polish player.

Fending off a host of Break Points helped Emma Raducanu to a competitive straight sets loss to Iga Swiatek on the clay courts of Stuttgart last year, but the last two meetings have seen the higher Ranked player dominate the returning numbers. Emma Raducanu is going to have to save a lot of Break Points to keep this one competitive and the likelihood is that Iga Swiatek will wear her down thanks to her consistency and that may see her pull away for a comfortable scoreboard victory.

Beatriz Haddad Maia v Veronika Kudermetova: Three losses to open 2025 and then dropping the first set at the Australian Open may have left World Number 17 Beatriz Haddad Maia in a vulnerable position as she looked to avoid an early exit.

She rallied against Julia Riera and has now won four sets in a row to rebuild some confidence.

Strong performances at the US Open warm up events and then a Quarter Final run at the Grand Slam would have bolstered Beatriz Haddad Maia and she won the title in Seoul. This made her start to the 2025 season feel disappointing, but the left hander is back on track and has been a solid hard court players in recent seasons.

In the Third Round Beatriz Haddad Maia faces the improving Veronika Kudermetova, a player who had been in the top ten of the World Rankings not so long ago, but who has had a difficult twelve months on the Tour.

Entering the tournament as the World Number 75 may have allowed Veronika Kudermetova to play without a sense of expectation, especially after a relatively mixed build up to the Australian Open. A solid First Round win has been followed by an upset of Katie Boulter, a Seeded player, in the Second Round and so there will be some renewed confidence in her play.

In 2022, Veronika Kudermetova had a very solid year on the hard courts, but she has lost some of her consistency over the last couple of years. It has really been evident when Kudermetova has played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and over the last twelve months she has a 5-9 record in that setting and that dips to 1-3 whn only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents.

More worrying in this match up is that two of those defeats have been to Beatriz Haddad Maia at the back end of the 2024 season during the hard court swing through Asia.

In those matches in Seoul and Wuhan, it is the World Number 17 who has won all four sets competed and Beatriz Haddad Maia has been able to win 50% of the points played on the Veronika Kudermetova serve. Getting close to that mark again will give the southpaw a huge advantage and likely keep the lower Ranked player under the pump.

Backing it to secure the victories was the Beatriz Haddad Maia serve and she was broken 4 times in those two matches compared with the 9 Break Points converted herself.

A poor start to 2025 prior to the Australian Open may be raising some doubts, but this looks a spot where Beatriz Haddad Maia can be picked to get the better of this 'pick 'em' contest.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Eva Lys @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 13-6, + 7.80 Units (35 Units Staked, + 22.29% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2025 (Friday 17th January)

Learning from past mistakes is key to improving results, but the overriding feeling after the Australian Open in 2024 was that things that could go wrong had gone wrong.

Making up for the tremendously poor tournament was always going to be difficult without having a lot of luck, and so the 2024 season was a really poor one for the Tennis Picks having never recovered from January.

Perhaps the one change made for this year is going with a much stricter selection process- there have been some misses already in the first five days of the Australian Open with the likes of Naomi Osaka winning matches that were on the borderline of being selected.

Ultimately there can be no complaints about eleven winners from fifteen selections and the positive number returned through the first two Rounds of the tournament are welcomed.

However, there are still ten days left in Melbourne and so this has to be seen as a positive start, but just a start.

Third Round matches begin on Friday with the temperatures expecting to be much higher in Melbourne than they have been in the previous two days and that is going to be challenging for players.

So far the upsets have largely been avoided in both the men's and women's tournament, but Daniil Medvedev has joined Qinwen Zheng in being former Australian Open Finalists that have failed to make the Third Round.

Both will feel tremendously disappointed, but plenty of the big names are still going and looking strong.

We have not really seen all four of the top women's Seeds going well at the same Grand Slam, but all look in great shape heading into the Third Round, while the top men's names are still involved outside of Medvedev.

The lineup for the second week of the tournament will begin to be put together on Friday and there are some top Third Round matches set to head out onto the Melbourne Park courts.

Selections from the opening Third Round matches can be read below as we look to push the positive returns further forward.

Ugo Humbert-Arthur Fils over 39.5 games: The chance to play in the second week of any Grand Slam can only build the confidence of those players to reach Fourth Round of the any of the four tournaments played across the calendar year. Being able to do that in Melbourne sets the standard for a long season ahead though and both Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils are very likely to be top 20 Ranked players when the new Rankings are released at the conclusion of the Australian Open.

Those marks means there is also an expectation around the two players to be a part of the Last 16 of any Grand Slam they play and so this is a big Third Round match between two compatriots looking to lead the next generation of French players forward.

Gael Monfils continues to defy his age, but the majority of those that made the headlines in French tennis have moved into retirement and new stars are needed, especially for a nation that hosts one of the four Slams.

After reaching the Final of the Paris Masters at the conclusion of 2024, Ugo Humbert is looking to take the next step his career over the coming eleven months. He has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open where the serve continues to be a big weapon, but Humbert will be well aware that he has not been tested having faced opponents Ranked 145 or lower.

There is no doubt that Arthur Fils will bring a test and there are arguably more expectations on his shoulders than the higher Ranked Frenchman. Part of the reason for that is Fils is still only 20 years old and is set to reach a new career high World Ranking inside the top 20 at the end of this tournament.

Inexperience has been an issue at times, but there is a lot to like about the Arthur Fils game- he can lose focus at moments, which is perhaps why he has needed four sets in each of his two wins in Melbourne, but Arthur Fils has beaten two players inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and that may make him feel he is more 'ready' to compete.

Sometimes in tennis matches between compatriots, it can be hard for the lower Ranked and younger player to deal with facing someone they have perhaps 'looked up to' as they make their own journey onto the professional Tour. So early in the careers you can see some one-sided head to head contest and that is the same for Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils.

The older of the two Frenchmen had won four in a row against Arthur Fils, culminating in a crushing 6-2, 6-2 win on the hard courts of Canada in August 2024. However, it was Arthur Fils who snapped the losing run against Ugo Humbert by beating him for the first time in Tokyo later in 2024 and that was for the title so a big occasion to come through.

It was also the first time Arthur Fils has been able to have consistent success against the Ugo Humbert serve and he may have the edge in this Third Round match.

Even if he is to come through, the expectation is that we will see at least four sets needed to determine a winner and that may give the players enough time to play the games needed to surpass this total line set.

In a three set win in the Tokyo Final, there were 34 games played in total and both have served well enough in Melbourne through the first two Rounds to expect a competitive and perhaps long Third Round match.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Jacob Fearnley: Andy Murray has retired and Cameron Norrie has taken a big tumble in the World Rankings meaning the pressure is on Jack Draper to become the next big star for British tennis.

At 23 years old, Jack Draper is a top 20 Ranked player and there are big expectations being carried on his shoulders as he prepares for a Third Round match at the Australian Open.

However, the British player making the headlines is less well known.

Jacob Fearnley has taken the American College route towards the professional Tour that many others have trodden before and there will be a maturity about those players when they play on the Tour that much younger players may not necessarily have. Of course there are exceptions to every statement, but Fearnley has played some big time tennis in College, including helping TCU win the National Championship, and that experience looks to stand this British player in good stead going forward.

He is a top 100 Ranked player and is set to make a big jump in the World Rankings having upset Nick Kyrgios and Arthur Cazaux in the first couple of Rounds in Melbourne. The confidence will not be lacking, but Jacob Fearnley will also be well aware that he is facing one of the favourites to win the title in this Third Round match.

Playing on a big court is not going to be an issue after the win over Nick Kyrgios in the First Round, but Alexander Zverev is a player operating at a much higher level than the injury hit Australian.

After making a full recovery from a serious injury, Alexander Zverev has put plenty of wins on the board over the last twelve months and is playing as the World Number 2. The German is still only 27 years old so the chance to win a Grand Slam has not passed him by, and the hard courts might be the domain on which Alexander Zverev could have his best chance to do that.

No one will doubt his capabilities on the clay of Roland Garros either, but the focus is on a strong Australian Open and Alexander Zverev has been untroubled through the first two Rounds. The serve is always going to be a big weapon for the Number 2 Seed, but it is the return that has been catching the eye in the first two Rounds and maintaining those levels will make him very hard to beat.

That is unlikely if you look at the historical returning numbers, but Alexander Zverev will put Jacob Fearnley under some pressure, even if the British number is currently playing very well behind that shot. The service numbers have dipped to holding at around 80% of service games played when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and this is far and away the highest Ranked player Jacob Fearnley has faced on the surface.

He is clearly a player that needs respect and Jacob Fearnley did raise interest last summer when taking a set from the great Novak Djokovic in the Second Round at Wimbledon. That may give Alexander Zverev the nudge to be that much more focused on the player rather than the World Ranking and the World Number 2 can find a way to cover this spread behind a solid straight sets win.

Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: Both of these players are Seeded at the Australian Open and both are former US Open Finalists- the difference is that World Number 3 Coco Gauff was able to win the title in Flushing Meadows, while World Number 29 Leylah Fernandez came up short in 2021 against Emma Raducanu.

After reaching her career best World Ranking in August 2022 with all of the points picked up from that US Open run, Leylah Fernandez has slipped back to be in and around the top 30 mark.

There is plenty of potential still to fulfil for the 22 year old Canadian, but Fernandez will need to find more consistency if she is going to become a regular feature in the top 20 or even better.

The hard court numbers kind of back that up with Leylah Fernandez a solid, but unspectacular player on the surface. There has also been a clear split in her capabilities against players that are Ranked higher or lower than her with Leylah Fernandez 15-6 against those she is expected to beat, and 6-10 against those she is perhaps not.

Leylah Fernandez feels like a momentum player and four of those six wins against higher Ranked players have come in the same two tournaments. Confidence clearly improves after an upset and Fernandez can keep things going, but there have been a lot of losses to the top players on the Tour and that includes a relatively one-sided defeat to Coco Gauff at the United Cup in the warm up to the Australian Open.

The World Number 3 has been pretty comfortable in her opening two matches in Melbourne and at 20 years old Coco Gauff is one of the stars of the sport.

Five wins at the United Cup means Coco Gauff comes into this event as one of the favourites and she is still one of the top hard court players on the WTA Tour. Her numbers at this event have been solid, but there is still more to come from Coco Gauff and the feeling is that she is playing a little within herself to ensure there is plenty left in the tank at the business end of the event.

A match like this should inspire Coco Gauff to be closer to her best knowing the kind of challenges that Leylah Fernandez could present if the higher Ranked player is not quite as focused as she should be.

It is not much of a concern for that to happen and Coco Gauff might be the player who gets a few more cheaper points behind the serve, which will put her in a strong position to move through to the Fourth Round. The serve was the key to the win over the Canadian at the United Cup and there is marked difference between the returning numbers of the two players on this surface over the last twelve months.

Covering this spread will be tough, but Coco Gauff is capable of finding the breaks of serve to do that and she can be backed here.

MY PICKS: Ugo Humbert-Arthur Fils Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mirra Andeeva - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 11-4, + 8.48 Units (27 Units Staked, + 31.41% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2025 (Thursday 16th January)

The Australian Open continues to roll forward and the remainder of the Second Round will be completed on Day 5 at the tournament.

Challenges will increase for the players over the coming days with the competition level increasing at the same time as the temperatures are expected to become much, much hotter and it can bring another factor to the table to consider.

A 2-1 record on Day 4 is welcomed, but there is still some frustration from the fact that Felix Auger-Aliassime blew a 2-0 lead over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, although not nearly the same level the Canadian will be feeling after a disappointing early exit from the Grand Slam event in Melbourne.

It still pushes things forward for the Tennis Picks, but Day 5 looks like being the busiest one yet for the selections being made and could have a big impact on the direction this tournament is going to travel.

Karen Khachanov - 1.5 sets v Gabriel Diallo: There is one Diallo making a big impact on a global stage by representing Manchester United Football Club, but Gabriel Diallo is hoping that his own name will also become well known for achievements in his own sport.

The Canadian is playing at his career best World Ranking and the First Round win over Luca Nardi means Gabriel Diallo will be improving that mark further. He did need over four hours to win that First Round match in five sets, but Gabriel Diallo looked the stronger player in the last couple of sets and also snapped a run of consecutive defeats, both to Italian players.

Last September, Gabriel Diallo reached the Third Round of the US Open and his game is very well suited to the hard courts. Winning matches will build confidence and he has built scoreboard pressure on his opponents by holding 87% of the service games played in 2025.

The opening draws have helped and it should be noted that Gabriel Diallo allowed 15 Break Points in his opening win in Melbourne.

Now the test is also much greater for the 23 year old when he goes up against Karen Khachanov, who won his First Round match against veteran Adrian Mannarino in straight sets. The World Number 19 has not really been able to become a consistent fixture in the top ten, but Karen Khachanov is a strong hard court player and he looks to hold a considerable edge over Gabriel Diallo on the returning numbers.

That could be key in a match that may need tie-breakers to separate the players within sets, while Karen Khachanov also holds the mental advantage over Gabriel Diallo having beaten him twice on the Tour.

Both wins were on the hard courts in matches played over the last six months and the higher Ranked player has held 87% of his service games compared with a 68% mark from Gabriel Diallo. In the two matches combined, Diallo has created 9 Break Points, but Karen Khachanov created 19 Break opportunities when beating the Canadian in Almaty to take the title in their most recent match.

You do have to feel that Karen Khachanov is still at the peak of his powers at 28 years old and he can back up those previous victories over Gabriel Diallo by riding his return game to another victory in the Second Round at the Australian Open.

Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 sets v Facundo Diaz Acosta: Two compatriots meet in the Australian Open Second Round and both Francisco Cerundolo and Facundo Diaz Acosta will feel this is an opportunity to begin to reverse the slide in their individual World Rankings.

It is Francisco Cerundolo who is the higher Ranked of the two Argentine players taking to the court, but the head to head is split after four games and that means Facundo Diaz Acosta deserves his respect.

A Quarter Final run as a Lucky Loser in Auckland does mean Facundo Diaz Acosta has produced a number of wins already in 2025, which can build confidence. The test for Diaz Acosta is recovering after needing over four hours on the court in the First Round to earn his place in this match, while he is clearly a player who is much more comfortable on a clay court rather than a hard court.

The disappointing early exit in Auckland is a part of a tough twelve months for Francisco Cerundolo, but the World Number 31 crushed Alexander Bublik in the First Round in Melbourne.

Make no mistake about the significance of that win and performance against a player who only barely missed out on a Seed for the Australian Open.

Backing up that kind of performance will never be easy, but the experience of Francisco Cerundolo will help.

Much like other South American players, Francisco Cerundolo is not at his most comfortable on this surface, but he has found a consistent level and one that could be enough to see him move past his lower Ranked countryman.

All four of the previous matches between these players have been on the clay courts and the only one in 2024 was won by Facundo Diaz Acosta, but the surface in Melbourne should allow Francisco Cerundolo to get a bit more out of the serve.

Ultimately that could be key in what is likely to be a match filled with plenty of rallies, but just having a few more cheaper points may just put Francisco Cerundolo in a position to win this one in three or four sets.

Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 games v Learner Tien: He may not be everybody's cup of tea, but tennis needs characters like Daniil Medvedev who are not afraid to say what they think.

His actions on the court turn some people the other way- the destruction of the net camera during his First Round win over World Number 418 Kasidit Samrej produced plenty of headlines, but Daniil Medvedev was able to avoid the upset in a five set win and remains a potential dark horse to win the Australian Open title.

There is no doubt that Daniil Medvedev will need to be a lot stronger than his First Round showing, and he is looking to bounce back from what was a dip in his performances on the hard courts throughout 2024. Prior to that, Medvedev was amongst the very best on the Tour on this surface, but he has slipped significantly behind Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz and bridging that gap is the challenge that the World Number 5 has to face.

A stronger start will be needed if Daniil Medvedev is going to make this a more comfortable match than the First Round ended up being, especially as he is facing 19 year old Learner Tien who has come through three Qualifying Rounds and then won his First Round match against an opponent Ranked higher than himself.

Learner Tien is just building his experience on the Tour right now and he is very comfortable on this surface, but he is still operating mainly on the Challenger Tour and this is a huge step up for him.

He does have a 6-5 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, but Learner Tien's service numbers have dropped to winning below 60% of points played. Someone like Daniil Medvedev will look to get plenty of balls back in play and test Tien's temperament and that is key to the outcome of this one.

Cameron Norrie beat Learner Tien pretty comfortably in Hong Kong and it may need some special tennis and an underperforming Daniil Medvedev performance to make this a really competitive match.

The top ten player has won his last fourteen matches at hard court Grand Slam events against opponents Ranked outside the top 100 and Daniil Medvedev might double down his focus after being given a scare in the First Round. He is likely to be faced with a tough opening set, but Medvedev should be able to move through the gears and eventually pull away from the young American with a strong win on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Holger Rune @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Ons Jabeur - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 7-3, + 4.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 15th January)

The First Round was played over three days, which is the norm at two of the four Grand Slams played on the Tour, but we will be getting back to a more consistent schedule going forward.

Of course the weather needs to play ball, and there looks to be some stormy weather in the Melbourne area on Day 4, but this might not be the worst news for those competing.

In fact the next two days are very decent temperature-wise for the players who are heading out onto the courts, although we will be hitting more traditional very hot weather around the weekend. These days bring different challenges, but the Second Round should be comfortable conditions for the top players looking to make their way towards the second week of the tournament.

On Day 4 there are some top names out on the courts, which is so good for the fans, and there are some quality looking matches to enjoy.

Hopefully the Tennis selections below can keep the positives ticking forward as I look to make a much better start to 2025 than I did twelve months ago, a memory that will long be seared on the mind.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 sets v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Both of these players have enjoyed much more positive moments in their respective careers than they are right now, although the signs are perhaps a little stronger for Felix Auger-Aliassime.

A former top ten Ranked player, Felix Auger-Aliassime has been striving to find the solutions to turn his tennis around. In the last eighteen months he has dropped out of the top 30 of the World Rankings as injury and loss of confidence played contributory factors, while the end of 2024 was very disappointing as far as the Canadian's form goes.

However, he has played well to open the 2025 season and winning the title in Adelaide will have done wonders for the confidence around the player. Two of the four wins needed to win that title were earned against players Ranked higher than himself, while Felix Auger-Aliassime has also beaten Taylor Fritz, the US Open Runner Up, this year.

The serve has never really been a massive issue, but there has been pressure placed on that shot by relatively poor returning numbers. Those have been very strong in the limited matches that Felix Auger-Aliassime has played so far this year and his dominant win in the First Round will have done him no harm at all.

He is a deserving favourite in this Second Round match against Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Felix Auger-Aliassime has won all four of their previous matches. Two of the wins have been on the clay courts, which should have favoured Davidovich Fokina, while the other two wins have both been on hard courts.

One of those was at the Australian Open in January 2022 when Felix Auger-Aliassime was Ranked 41 places higher than Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and the Canadian used his experience to come through in four competitive sets.

This year Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 43 places below Auger-Aliassime in the World Rankings having had a difficult twelve months.

In that time Davidovich Fokina has fallen out of the top 30 in the World Rankings down to World Number 66 and the Spaniard has not shown a lot of positive form in the build up to the Australian Open. He benefited from a second set retirement in the First Round, but this is a considerably tougher test for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, a player who has a vulnerable serve even at his strongest times.

The head to head shows that Alejandro Davidovich is able to protect his serve a little better when facing the weak returning of Felix Auger-Aliassime and he has been able to hold 87% of the service games played. However, the reason Auger-Aliassime has won all four previous matches between the players is that he has held 94% of his own service games against this opponent and the current form suggests the higher Ranked player is going to be good enough to move through in three or four sets.

Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 sets v Francesco Passaro: This little section of the draw has been opened up by Grigor Dimitrov's hip injury that forced him out of his First Round match and the beneficiary is Francesco Passaro.

The Italian is only in the main draw as a 'Lucky Loser', but will be entering the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time at the end of this tournament. However, there are some big challenges for Francesco Passaro to overcome to have a longer stay in Melbourne, even if he may feel he has 'nothing to lose' right now.

He was leading Grigor Dimitrov by a set when the Bulgarian was forced to retire from the match, but Francesco Passaro had never beaten a top 100 Ranked opponent on the hard courts prior to that. There have been stronger performances on the favoured clay courts and improving his Ranking will allow Francesco Passaro to try and play in some of the big events coming up in the lead up to the French Open, but he had played seven hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents and lost every one.

The real concern is that Francesco Passaro had not been very competitive in those defeats either and that makes Benjamin Bonzi a deserving favourite.

At 28 years old, the time is now for Bonzi to really make an impact on the Tour.

He had threatened to become one of the next leading lights of French men's tennis, but his progress was curtailed after reaching his career high World Ranking in February 2023. However, Benjamin Bonzi ended 2024 in strong form, albeit at a lower level than the main ATP Tour, and he has put plenty of wins on the board in 2025 which can only build the confidence.

The win over veteran David Goffin in the First Round was very impressive and Benjamin Bonzi has been able to beat those that he has been expected to outside of that victory. The Frenchman has won his last nineteen matches on the hard courts when playing an opponent that is Ranked lower than himself and Benjamin Bonzi has won plenty of those matches in strong fashion.

Over the last twelve months, Benjamin Bonzi has held 82% of service games on this surface when facing an opponent Ranked lower than himself.

This has also helped Bonzi dominate on the return of serve and you have to feel he has a bit too much all around for Francesco Passaro in their first meeting on the Tour.

The Lucky Loser may feel fortune is still behind him, but the likelihood is that Francesco Passaro's run ends in the Second Round and Benjamin Bonzi can move through in a relatively untroubled manner.

Reilly Opelka-Tomas Machac over 40.5 games: Life as a tennis player is going to be fun at times, but injuries can have a devastating mental and physical effect on any player on the Tour.

Reilly Opelka will tell you all about that having missed large parts of the last two years dealing with various ailments.

The hope is that 2025 will be clearer for the American who has dropped down to World Number 170 and who will be looking to take advantage of any Wild Cards offered to him to rebuild as quickly as possible. It was a Protected Ranking that allowed Reilly Opelka to compete in Brisbane in the warm up to the Australian Open and he took full advantage by reaching the Final, which included beating Novak Djokovic on the way.

Unfortunately it was not a perfect ending for Opelka who was forced to withdraw from the Final after just five games, but he is able to compete in Melbourne and earned his four set win in the First Round. It was a back issue that had flared up in Brisbane and the concern is that it will impact Reilly Opelka's serving, which is an absolutely huge part of his tennis.

He gave up 13 Break Points in the First Round and that was against an opponent Ranked outside the top 200 so there is little doubt that Reilly Opelka needs to show significant improvement if he is going to upset Tomas Machac.

The 24 year old representing Czechia has some big expectations on his shoulders along with a couple of his compatriots as tennis fans look for the next Tomas Berdych to come through. This Tomas is closing in on reaching the top 20 in the World Rankings for the first time and Machac will have gained some confidence from the level shown at the United Cup in preparing for the first Grand Slam of the season.

A close loss to Casper Ruud and a competitive match against Taylor Fritz will have given Tomas Machac a boost and he was a very strong winner in the First Round.

The higher Ranked player has an edge on the returning numbers, but Tomas Machac will not have faced a serve like Reilly Opelka's in every match.

His own serve will certainly be good enough to contain the threat from the American, but this could be a match that needs a couple of tie-breakers to really determine the direction it moves in, especially if Reilly Opelka is able to bring his best serving to the court.

Both players are more than capable of winning a set and you would have to feel that this Second Round match is able to surpass the total games line set if that is the case. With the serving capabilities on both sides of the net, there is every chance that the sets will be pretty fast with players rolling through service games and the two are capable of combining for enough games to move past this line.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Reilly Opelka-Tomas Machac Over 40.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 5-2, + 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 35% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2025 (Tuesday 14th January)

The First Round at the Australian Open is going to be concluded on Day 3 at the first Grand Slam of the season.

In the main the majority of the big names and favourites have moved through to the Second Round, although the loss suffered by Nick Kyrgios is a disappointment.

He is clearly not quite back to full health, but it was a concern that Kyrgios has spoken about potentially retiring- he is going to have a strong career in broadcasting circles, but the Aussie is one of the more interesting players to watch on the Tour and it would be a big blow for fans as we look for more characters to take the sport forward.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the one stand out name eliminated from the tournament and you do have to wonder about the direction his career is taking. Some felt he was a future Grand Slam Champion in the making, although his returning numbers were concerning, but right now Tsitsipas is on a poor run and he will need to get back to the drawing board to find a way to turn things around.

The Tennis Picks continue on Day 3 and the my selections can be seen below as the First Round concludes.

It has been a decent enough start to the tournament for the selections, but we have only moved through two days of a fifteen day event and so there is plenty of work still to do.

Katie Boulter - 4.5 games v Rebecca Marino: Over the course of this season, British Number 1 Katie Boulter is going to turn 29 years old and so the time to make a really big impact on the Tour is now.

A decent ending to 2024 means she enters the Australian Open at her career best World Ranking and there will be plenty of support for Katie Boulter from the stands after announcing her engagement to Australian player Alex De Minaur.

Two wins at the United Cup in the warm up to Melbourne will give Boulter some confidence and she also was able to take a set from Iga Swiatek, even if she was ultimately beaten by the current World Number 2. However, Katie Boulter's confidence should not be dented having shown improvement on the hard courts in each of the last few seasons and she should have too much for the veteran facing her in the First Round.

All respect has to be given to Rebecca Marino as the 34 year old continues to just about hold onto a top 100 World Ranking and she remains a competitive player on the Tour. In 2024, Rebecca Marino won 71% of her hard court matches played, which will mean she is going to arrive in Melbourne full of belief as to what she wants to do on the court, but the reality is that the Canadian has played a lot of those matches away from the main Tour level.

To highlight that statement, it should be noted that Rebecca Marino finished 2024 with a 47-19 mark on the hard courts, but that was just 3-4 when playing top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface.

She was able to win just five games in a pretty straight-forward defeat to Emma Raducanu at the BJK Cup at the end of 2024 and Rebecca Marino will be dealing with a tough opponent across the net who will be receiving a huge amount of support from the stands.

Experience means Marino will be used to situations like this, but she will also be aware that her two previous matches against Katie Boulter have ended in relatively easy defeats.

One of those was in Montreal on the hard courts in 2023 and the other on the grass courts in Nottingham in 2024, but on both occasions the match was dominated by Katie Boulter. Rebecca Marino's second serve has been attacked with real positivity by Katie Boulter and the former has not been able to get enough out of her return game in the previous matches to believe this one will be much different.

Emma Navarro - 1.5 games v Peyton Stearns: Two American players meet in the First Round and there will be no secrets between Emma Navarro and Peyton Stearns when they enter the court at the opening Grand Slam of the 2025 season.

Last year was a breakout one for Emma Navarro who will be playing as the World Number 8 in Melbourne having entered the 2024 Australian Open as the World Number 26. She has continued to grow on the Tour having found her feet following a tough introduction, and Emma Navarro had big impacts at Wimbledon and the US Open last year, which will also give her confidence a signifcant boost.

Early losses in Brisbane and Auckland have perhaps contributed to what is a surprising spread, especially as Emma Navarro was suffering with an illness at the back end of the last campaign that meant missing out on a lucrative opportunity to play at the WTA Finals.

Her head to head with Peyton Stearns will give Navarro more confidence, although the sole match between these two compatriots on the hard courts ended in a victory for the narrow underdog.

Peyton Stearns is getting closer and closer to setting a new career high World Ranking and she will certainly be able to achieve that with a big run in Melbourne. She has three wins under her belt from the warm up events for the Australian Open, while the two defeats to Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa were in very competitive matches.

There is no doubt that Peyton Stearns is playing well enough to deserve a lot of respect and especially so when you think of the lack of wins Emma Navarro has produced since her run to the US Open Semi Final in September.

It would be a real surprise if this match was to be concluded in straight sets for either player, but Emma Navarro's experience and improvements over the last twelve months still give her a slight edge. Even in a three set win, the higher Ranked American can do enough to cover this mark and make her way through to the Second Round to be played later this week.

MY PICKS: Katie Boulter - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emma Navarro - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Gael Monfils-Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Over 43.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 2-1, + 1.44 Units (4 Units Staked, + 36% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2025 (Monday 13th January)

The Australian Open recently made the decision to open on a Sunday and use the first three days of the tournament for the First Round of the tournament.

The idea is to negate the late finishes that had been far too common at the event, and it might have helped a lot this season with the stormy weather that surprisingly impacted Day 1 of the first Grand Slam of 2025.

It has been a quiet start for the Tennis Picks, but an opening winner is better than beginning with a losing selection and on Day 2 there are a couple of selections that can be read below.

Sofia Kenin + 6.5 games v Coco Gauff: It is hard to believe that five years have passed since Sofia Kenin won the Australian Open title and the American has not really been able to sustain those heights, despite the huge potential she had.

Back then Sofia Kenin was the World Number 15, but it was still an upset to see her win the Australian Open.

Even now, Kenin is still only 26 years old, but she will enter the 2025 tournament outside of the top 80 in the World Rankings, while the little form shown in the warm up events has perhaps contributed to Sofia Kenin being set as such a big underdog to earn a spot in the Second Round.

The odds cannot be a big surprise with Sofia Kenin going up against compatriot Coco Gauff, who is right up there as one of the leading contenders to win the first Grand Slam of the 2025 season. Consistency has helped Coco Gauff move into the World Number 3 spot, while a strong run at the United Cup in the warm up to Melbourne will have filled the top American player with a lot of confidence.

Playing on the hard courts might be favoured by Coco Gauff, but she has grown as a player on the surface and in recent years she has shown improvement in each passing year on the Tour. In 2024 Gauff looked stronger behind the first serve and her return game was very strong, but working on the second serve will be the plan and especially if she is going to win a tournament like this one.

The edge is with Coco Gauff, but you have to believe the match up will give Sofia Kenin plenty of motivation on a court where she won her sole Grand Slam title.

The players last met a little over eighteen months ago at Wimbledon and it was Sofia Kenin who won on that day, despite being the World Number 128 going up against Coco Gauff as the World Number 7. We do know the latter is improved even more from that last match, but this is a very big spread and Sofia Kenin can serve well enough when feeling her tennis to at least win enough games to avoid looking like she has been crushed.

Backing against Coco Gauff in the early Rounds is not easy with the World Number 3 able to play without the pressure of being involved in the second week of a Grand Slam. She will have enough respect for Sofia Kenin to be really focused too, which makes Coco Gauff that much tougher to oppose as the more likely winner, but the higher Ranked player will have to play a really clean match to cover a spread of this size and so backing the underdog looks the right play.

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Caroline Garcia: Things looked to be going to plan as Naomi Osaka cruised through to the Final in Auckland and she took the first set, which had all of the momentum behind the multiple time Grand Slam Champion.

Unfortunately Naomi Osaka had to pull out of the match just after securing the first set in the Final and that raised some concerns about her ability to take part in the opening Grand Slam of the 2025 season.

A former two time Champion in Melbourne, Naomi Osaka has admitted she may not be at 100%, but the scans indicate she can compete and it is a match against a familiar opponent in the First Round at the Australian Open.

Caroline Garcia beat Naomi Osaka twice last year, including at the Australian Open, while the Japanese player won once.

There was nothing wrong with Osaka's serving in the three matches against Caroline Garcia, but she was not able to get enough from the return of serve to really put the Frenchwoman under pressure.

Carrying an injury is not ideal, but Naomi Osaka has played some competitive tennis this year and that is more than can be said for Caroline Garcia. The latter was last in action in mid-September and Garcia has perhaps lost a little bit of love with the sport having announced the pressure that social media has also placed on her.

She has dropped down to World Number 58 and Garcia finished with a 10-10 record on the hard courts in 2024, and there were plenty of early defeats suffered too.

It is hard to guess how well Caroline Garcia can come out and serve having not been in competitive action for as long as she has and the feeling is that Naomi Osaka will be able to do more on the return than she managed in the three meetings last year.

From all of the statements made by Naomi Osaka in the last couple of days, it sounds like she is trying to downplay expectations. This is a concern when backing a player that can lose focus and quickly drop her level when things are not quite going to plan, but it feels like this is a good first match for the former Champion to find her feet in Melbourne.

As much as you have to have some concern about Osaka, the same applies to Caroline Garcia and this is a match which will have fine margins considering the amount of big hitting expected from both. That is where Garcia's match rustiness could work against her and Naomi Osaka might find the breaks needed to edge past this number on the cover.

MY PICKS: Sofia Kenin + 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Australian Open Update: 1-0, + 1.44 Units (2 Units Staked, + 72% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2025 (Sunday 12th January)

The Tennis off-season is never very long, but this one has been filled with more headlines than either Tour would have liked.

The men's World Number 1 is still under investigation for a failed drugs test with some wanting Jannik Sinner to serve a proper suspension rather than what was offered up in 2024.

To make matters worse for the sport as a whole, it was announced that Iga Swiatek, the women's World Number 1, was also suspended for a month after failing a test of her own. However, that has not appeased anybody with many feeling that the Tour has not given the same type of suspension that so many lower Ranked players have had to suffer, while the fact the suspension had little actual impact of missing tournaments really has not helped anyone.

It is not a good look for a sport that has seen some of the biggest names move into retirement over the last couple of years and no one can be surprised that both World Number 1's have faced as much criticism as they have.

For some reason those who support Sinner and Swiatek have been surprised by the outrage, but even the most ardent of fans would admit that there has been a feeling of a different set of rules being applied to the best players and those further down the World Rankings. Even former Grand Slam Winner Simona Halep has been highly critical considering she served a much longer ban for what she feels is essentially an equivalent situation to Iga Swiatek.

The hope for those who love this sport is that the headlines at the first Grand Slam of the 2025 season will be made on the court and not off it.

Melbourne does produce some big tournaments and there is plenty of excitement with a Slam kicking off the year, as has become the norm.

Last year was a terrible season for the Tennis Picks and it all began at the Australian Open where the worst performance at any Grand Slam was recorded.

It wasn't bad, it was absolutely pathetic, and 2025 needs to start much better.

The rest of the season was not so bad, but recovering from that awful Australian Open 2024 was far too much to ask and that cannot happen again.

Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 games v Anca Alexia Todoni: 2024 will be remembered very positively by Qinwen Zheng after winning the Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics and reaching the Final of the Australian Open and the WTA Finals.

Twelve months ago, Qinwen Zheng would have entered the Australian Open as an outsider with her World Number 15 Rank, but expectations are certainly much larger going into this season. She is the World Number 5 in Melbourne in 2025, and fans will be expecting this player to take the next step in her development and that is by winning a Grand Slam title.

She faces a Qualifier in her first match in Melbourne and her first professional match in 2025 and Qinwen Zheng is unsurprisingly a big favourite.

The hard court numbers produced in 2024 are certainly encouraging and Qinwen Zheng is a player that can dominate behind serve and build scoreboard pressure. There is always room for improvement though and that really needs to be on the return of serve with Zheng winning 43% of return points played on the surface, a number that can be improved by someone who is now entrenched in the top ten of the World Rankings, albeit with plenty of points to defend over the next fortnight.

Her first opponent is the 20 year old Qualifier from Romania, although Anca Alexia Todoni deserves her respect after a positive start to 2025. Winning matches breeds confidence and Todoni has won three already to earn a spot in the main draw in Melbourne, while the Romanian won three matches in Brisbane in a warm up event before being ousted by Linda Noskova.

It is fair to point out that Anca Alexia Todoni is only playing her second opponent from within the top 100 when facing last year's Australian Open Runner Up and the loss to Linda Noskova was pretty straight-forward.

The favoured domain is the clay courts, and Anca Alexia Todoni remains a touch inexperienced which may work against her here.

She does hold a 6-4 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on all surfaces in her career, but that drops to 1-2 when considering non-clay court events. The younger players can serve well enough to at least give Qinwen Zheng something to think about, but the reality is that this is a big step up and the opening selection from the Australian Open in 2025 is backing the World Number 5 to secure a relatively comfortable pathway through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 BetFred (2 Units)