Tuesday, 17 June 2025

Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 18th June)

A couple of rolls of the ball or a mishit here or there may have led to a perfect 5-0 start to the week for the Tennis Picks, but it was not to be for Joao Fonseca, who had late Break Point opportunities to win and cover.

Instead he was beaten in a third set tie-breaker, but Andrey Rublev had already done all that was expected from him earlier in the day in Halle and that has prevented this week having the same slide as last week following a strong start for the selections.

Moving onto Wednesday means more big names are in action and the majority of the tournaments being played will be into Second Round action over the next couple of days. There some First Round matches to clear up in Halle as the organisers gave a couple of Finalists from the end of last week a bit more time to prepare for their event, but in the main it is onto Second Round action in what are the last really big events before the start of Wimbledon a week on Monday.


Emma Navarro v Paula Badosa: Both of these players produced very solid First Round wins in Berlin and previous form on the grass courts should mean Emma Navarro and Paula Badosa are set for decent impacts when Wimbledon gets underway.

The more matches that can be played now could pay off in SW19 and so this is an important Second Round match.

Last week Emma Navarro was beaten at the same stage at Queens Club in London, while Paula Badosa is playing her first grass court event of 2025, and the performances that have been produced in the opening wins should have given each plenty of confidence.

At the same time, both Navarro and Badosa have struggled for some consistency in the last few months and so they will be looking to rebuild some of the lost confidence by having a strong run in Berlin.

Emma Navarro was a Wimbledon Quarter Finalist last year, and that had followed a Semi Final run in Bad Homburg. She has yet to really find the same level on the surface in the opening three matches played, but all three have been against decent players on the Tour and going 2-1 will certainly help the American believe that her tennis is in a good spot.

In the same two events in 2024, Paula Badosa reached the Fourth Round in SW19 and Quarter Final in Bad Homburg, and she looked in strong shape in crushing home hope Eva Lys in the First Round. This is a significant step upwards in terms of a challenge having split two matches with Emma Navarro last year with the Badosa win being on a clay court and the Navarro win coming at the US Open on the hard courts.

Paula Badosa has all of the attributes to be a really strong grass court player- the serve can be a huge weapon and she showed that she can get her teeth into the return last year and in the strong First Round win.

However, that will be tested by Emma Navarro if the World Number 9 is anywhere near her best and the match up with the Spaniard has been one that she has enjoyed.

This has the makings of a close Second Round match between two players separated by one place in the World Rankings and Emma Navarro can secure the upset. It was something of a surprise that she has been set as the pretty strong underdog, and the American can make use of the games being given to her on the handicap.


Jack Draper - 3.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Over the last twelve months, Alexei Popyrin has perhaps picked up a better understanding of playing on the grass courts, although it is still a work in progress. He is going to be Seeded at Wimbledon later this month and Alexei Popyrin has won six of his last ten matches on the surface having gotten the better of compatriot Aleksandar Vukic in the First Round.

That followed an early loss in Hertogenbosch and there is little doubt that Alexei Popyrin is a very dangerous player on this surface as long as he serves as well as he can. Doing that makes it very difficult to get on top of him and Popyrin won a set in a Third Round loss to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon last year, which will have given him a lot of confidence to perform on this surface.

Playing in London means it is tennis season and Alexei Popyrin has had previous experience of facing a British player at Queens Club when losing to Andy Murray in what turned out to be the last Singles win of the latter's very strong career.

This time he has to face the British Number 1, who is also the World Number 6, and Jack Draper has all of the tools needed to be a very successful player on the surface.

He won a title on the grass in Stuttgart last year, but Draper was disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon and so there has been a tweak of the schedule. This time Jack Draper decided to have some time off before Queens got underway and he was a very strong First Round winner.

Jack Draper's improvement on the Tour has been behind the strong lefty serve, and that is a weapon that is considerably more dangerous on a surface like this one. He should be able to largely contain the Alexei Popyrin threat when he is serving and that should allow Draper the freedom to try and attack the Australian, who has given up seventeen Break Points in two matches played on the grass this month.

When he is serving at his best, Alexei Popyrin can be very difficult to break- he held 89% of his service games on the grass courts in 2024. This is not an easy surface to break serve, but Jack Draper has had some decent numbers on the grass and he can use his own serve to put some scoreboard pressure on the lower Ranked player.

The home player can take some encouragement from the fact he was able to break the Alexei Popyrin twice on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season too and Draper may have enough to cover the spread in this one barring a significant serving improvement from the World Number 21.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Marcos Giron: It was something of a surprise to not see Marcos Giron's name on the draw sheet at either of the two grass court events played last week.

In recent years, the 31 year old has been a comfortable grass court player and he has had some big wins and solid runs on the surface.

He arrives in Halle to face the home favourite, Alexander Zverev, who is also fresh off of reaching the Stuttgart Final before being downed by Taylor Fritz again. This is also a player who has regularly reached the business end at this tournament in the build up to Wimbledon, although Zverev will have plenty of respect for the kind of tennis that Marcos Giron can produce on the grass.

The serve was key for Marcus Giron last year and it helped him win the ATP title in Newport, as well as reaching the Quarter Final here in Halle. During that summer on the grass, Giron was able to take a set from Jack Draper and beat Andrey Rublev, which are impressive performances and his runs were ended by top ten Ranked players here and at Wimbledon.

The second of those defeats was to Alexander Zverev, who dismissed Marcus Giron at SW19 far more easily than anyone could have really imagined.

It is the kind of win that will give Zverev confidence as he heads out onto the court on Wednesday following the loss in Stuttgart on Sunday and the only real concern is whether he is that motivated for another long week with Wimbledon fast approaching. Having those wins in Stuttgart could be a distraction for Alexander Zverev, even if he is going to be well backed by the fans in the stands, although the match up is hard to ignore.

He has won all three previous matches against Marcus Giron and the two wins in 2024 both came in straight sets.

Overall it has been a real challenge for the World Number 41 to get into the Alexander Zverev service games and that has put too much pressure on his own serve.

It should be noted that Alexander Zverev is not the most convincing of return players on the faster surfaces, but he should have enough chances in this First Round match to win and go through with a cover of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Emma Navarro + 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Jack Draper - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 2.32 Units (5 Units Staked, + 46.40% Yield)

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