Midweek Football Picks 2016 (March 1-2)

With the European Championships taking place in France in June, the domestic season in England usually is ended slightly earlier than usual so the national team has enough time to prepare together for the Finals.

That does mean that there are a few of these midweek rounds of Premier League fixtures scattered through the course of the season and we have another this week. At this time of the season every game means so much more with the fixture list beginning to run down and this Tuesday/Wednesday is no different when it comes to the title and relegation battles which are warming up nicely.

Injuries, managing a crowded fixture list and picking the right teams to win the points is the reason these managers get paid as much as they do and there are some wonderful Premier League games on schedule in the coming days.


February followed January in being a strong month for the picks made and I am looking for March to continue the momentum after a terrible opening four months of the 2015/16 season. There has been no chasing which is always the key to preventing things from going bad to horrific, but the little elements of luck have most definitely been with me rather than against me in the last couple of months.

Hopefully Lady Luck has found no reason to desert me just yet.


Bournemouth v Southampton Pick: When you think the last time Bournemouth hosted Southampton in this south coast derby was only five seasons ago, it is hard to imagine both clubs were in League One at the time. Both have improved markedly from then, although Bournemouth still have a big task to ensure they are still playing at the same level as Southampton in the Premier League next season.

I am not going to criticise Eddie Howe for the brand of football that he insists Bournemouth play, but at this moment they need to knuckle down and grind out a result. They did that at Watford on Saturday, but it can be more difficult at home where the supporters want Bournemouth to get forward.

The fact is that Bournemouth have struggled at both ends of the pitch in recent weeks and that is highlighted by their 4 losses in their last 5 games at The Vitality Stadium. In all of those losses they have conceded at least twice, although they may feel that Southampton are not the kind of team that will score a lot of goals.

Ronald Koeman bases his tactics on a very solid defensive foundation and I don't think Southampton will change that style even if their 6 clean sheets in a row came to an end this past weekend. This is still a very solid Premier League team and I think they look overpriced to come to Bournemouth and become the latest to leave with the victory.

Bournemouth do put teams under pressure with their possession based game and ability to get crosses into the box, but Southampton shouldn't be as big a price as this. This is a team that has won 2 of their last 3 away games in the Premier League and have kept clean sheets in each of those games so Southampton should have the belief to win here and I will have a small interest they do that.

The Saints did lose at Norwich City at the start of January, but they have been improved since and worthy of a small interest.


Aston Villa v Everton Pick: Everton have had over a week off thanks to the Merseyside derby being postponed this weekend with Liverpool playing in the League Cup Final. This is an important time for Roberto Martinez after it was announced a new investor had arrived at Goodison Park and the Spaniard in the manager position has to get the fans onside to make sure any managerial changes are not made.

It has been something of a mixed response that Martinez has gotten from the Everton fans as they feel this is a team that should be much higher in the Premier League table. They can move back into the top half with a win at Villa Park where the fans have completely turned against their side and the inevitable drop into the Championship.

I really worry for Aston Villa who might be 8 points off safety, but who haven't shown they will get enough out of their remaining eleven games to get out of trouble. Another defeat on Saturday has kept them in a terrible spot, but I fear that this is a club that may slide through the Leagues in the next couple of years.

I don't see enough quality nor those who will have the stomach for the fight in the Championship and who knows if Remi Garde will really feel he is the man to restore this famous old club. Recent home losses to Manchester City (0-4) and Liverpool (0-6) have been bordering on the ridiculous having moved past embarrassing and Aston Villa had lost back to back home games against Everton before beating them last season.

With the team at Everton's disposal I expect them to get back to winning ways here. Everton have won 3 straight away games in all competitions and I think they can play with more freedom away from home without the same expectation they have at Goodison Park and I will back Everton to win here.


Norwich City v Chelsea Pick: You have to be impressed with the character and belief that Guus Hiddink has restored to the Chelsea side and the confidence has followed that. A 1-2 win at Southampton means Chelsea are very much in line to challenge for European places through their Premier League finish even if the priority is now on the Cup competitions in the FA Cup and Champions League.

Recent performances under Hiddink suggests Chelsea are close to being at their best and I am expecting them to be too strong for a Norwich City side who are struggling. Confidence has to be in a bad place on a poor run, but losing 1-0 at Leicester City in the final moments of that game will have been a huge body blow to the side.

Now they have to host Chelsea having conceded at least twice in their last 4 home games in all competitions. That includes conceding three times to Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur and now they face a Chelsea team that have looked much more threatening going forward.

The Blues have won 4 of their last 6 away games in all competitions and have crushed the likes of Crystal Palace and the MK Dons and now they face a team that might not have too much belief if they fall behind. Chelsea should be too good and I think they might win this by at least a two goal margin and have to be worth backing to cover the one goal Asian Handicap at Carrow Road.


Arsenal v Swansea City Pick: Obviously as a Manchester United fan I was delighted with the performance, or lack thereof, that Arsenal produced at Old Trafford on Sunday. However as someone who might look to determine a Premier League title winner, I think Arsenal need to have a right good look in the mirror and ask themselves if they really believe they are capable of being Champions for the first time since 2004.

I have to think Arsene Wenger was absolutely disgusted by what he had seen on the pitch at Old Trafford and this is a big test for Arsenal to bounce back immediately. The late winner over Leicester City was supposed to propel Arsenal forward, but they have failed to win any of 3 games since and the defeat to an injury hit Manchester United was the most disappointing performance of them all.

This has been a tough fixture for Arsenal in recent seasons as they have failed to win any of 3 Premier League home games against Swansea City and been beaten in 2 of those games.

However it has to be said that this Swansea City team have to be short of confidence having been dominated by Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday and failing to hold onto a 0-1 lead they had in that game. Only an inspired display from Lukasz Fabianski kept the score respectable and I do think Arsenal are a team that can perform better when the pressure is off.

Depending on what Leicester City do on Tuesday evening, Arsenal might feel they have been ruled out of the title race and can string together some positive results. This is a must win game for them and I do think Swansea City are a team that will allow them to play their football and can be punished for that.

If Fabianski is not quite at the races, I think Arsenal will win this one comfortably enough on Wednesday and will back them to bounce back from Sunday with a win by at least two goals.


Stoke City v Newcastle United Pick: The Premier League has been a very competitive Division and that is partly down to the fact that teams have struggled for their consistency through the course of the season. Stoke City are the highlight of those teams with some really good performances mixed in with some really atrocious ones.

They have been very strong against the teams struggling in the Division and Stoke City will look at Newcastle United as another one of those teams. Of the 6 Premier League wins at The Brittania Stadium this season, Stoke City have beaten 2 of the bottom 4 clubs and I do think they will be too strong for this Newcastle United.

Coming off the warm weather training and not having a competitive game for over two weeks is tough to overcome for Newcastle United who were active in the transfer window. They have a big Premier League game at home on Saturday when they host Bournemouth and a slow start here will give Stoke City the edge.

It has been a fixture Stoke City have enjoyed with 3 straight home wins over Newcastle United behind them and I do think The Potters have the positive momentum behind them. Newcastle United have lost 6 in a row away from home in all competitions and injuries have been a major factor against them.

At odds against I think Stoke City can be backed to pick up the three points and keep their Europa League ambitions alive.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This London derby should really have had the television cameras in town for the live showing as both West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur put some long unbeaten runs at home/away respectively on the line. It is a huge game for both clubs who have some big ambitions at the upper end of the Premier League table and I think it is much closer than the layers believe.

I have a lot of respect for the way Tottenham Hotspur have played away from home and I can see why the layers won't take chances with their price. However I am not convinced they should only just odds against to win here, especially when you consider how well West Ham United have played at Upton Park.

The likes of Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Manchester City have tried to snap a long unbeaten run for West Ham United at home in the Premier League, but all failed. The Hammers have no love lost for Tottenham Hotspur so the fans will be completely behind their team and there is enough attacking talent to give the away side a lot of problems.

I do think the pace of Tottenham Hotspur makes them a threat on the counter-attack themselves and this has all the hallmarks of a really exciting game.

Before the 1-0 win over Sunderland, West Ham United had scored at least twice in 4 straight home Premier League games. Anyone who saw the game on Saturday will know West Ham United had plenty of chances to make that 5 in a row, but they also looked vulnerable defensively which is an area Tottenham Hotspur can exploit.

Tottenham Hotspur have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games, but they have also had a single clean sheet their last 5.

It does point to there being goals in this one and I prefer backing at least three to be scored than any Tottenham Hotspur price at evens. West Ham United certainly won't be rolling over for Tottenham Hotspur and this looks like being a 2-1 scoreline or a 2-2 draw to me and I will back there being at least three goals shared out.


Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: The game at Wembley Stadium caught fire in the second half and better finishing from the likes of Raheem Sterling would have seen Manchester City win that game in normal time. Both teams have had to play the additional extra time and then the emotion of the penalty shoot-out and I think both squads will have some fatigue.

There were chances at both ends of the League Cup Final and mental tiredness might lead to more mistakes from both of these defences. I can see Liverpool and Manchester City creating chances and the need for the three points should keep both teams pushing forward with both Jurgen Klopp and Manuel Pellegrini advocating attacking football.

I picked there being goals when the teams met on Sunday and only barely missed out thanks to some erratic finishing and fine goalkeeping through the game, particularly from Simon Mignolet.

If he produces that level again I might be disappointed, but I have to think this game will likely produce at least three goals. The mental and physical tiredness should give the attacking players a little more room to find space to create chances and score goals.

I would be hoping for the quality players to show more composure and backing at least three goals to be shared out in a fixture that tends to produce plenty of goalmouth action looks to be the call.


Manchester United v Watford Pick: When I saw the line up that Manchester United had to put out and the one that Arsenal had on Sunday, I really didn't think Manchester United had a lot of hope in that game. However it was a strong performance from the home team for the most part, but that will all be for nought if they unable to back it up with a win over Watford on Wednesday.

It has been the games against the 'smaller' teams in the Premier League where Manchester United have been let down and they have to be careful not to underestimate their opponents. There is plenty of pace in the Watford forward line which can give a makeshift back four something to think about and some of the Manchester United defending hasn't been convincing.

Credit where credit is due though and I do think there have been better attacking phases from Manchester United. Memphis Depay has arguably had two of his bette performances in a Manchester United shirt, while Marcus Rashford has been a real find for them in the last couple of games.

I do think this is going to be a difficult match for Manchester United as Watford have shown their ability through much of the season. They haven't been as strong away from home although I still expect them to pose problems as they did for Chelsea and knowing Manchester United have looked vulnerable in defence in recent games.

The layers are sticking with their thoughts that Manchester United and Watford games have not been producing a lot of goals recently. However I think Manchester United have definitely looked better going forward without the defence quite following suit thanks to injuries and I can see both teams scoring in this one.

My feeling is that Manchester United will still win the game though and I will back at least three goals to be shared out at odds against.

MY PICKS: Southampton @ 2.70 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Everton @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
West Ham United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)

January Final: 19-13, + 17.56 Units (61 Units Staked, + 28.79% Yield)

December Final: 15-23, - 9.32 Units (64 Units Staked, - 14.56% Yield)

November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)

October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)

September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)

August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 107-151-2, - 17.55 Units (572 Units Staked, - 3.07% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2014 (March 1-2)

The first two months of 2014 have been tough work for the picks, but there were at least some shoots of recovery in the last week, although it was never going to be enough to turn around a terrible February.

It was also another disappointing week for the English teams in Europe, although Chelsea won't be too disheartened by a 1-1 draw in Galatasaray and Tottenham Hotspur did make it through to the Last 16 of the Europa League.

Swansea's defeat in Napoli was expected although you have to credit the performance of Garry Monk's men who were close to causing the upset and the 3-1 loss was harsh as they pushed men on in search of an equaliser.

Of course the biggest disappointment was Manchester United becoming the third English side to lose their Last 16 first leg tie in the Champions League by a 2-0 scoreline, although at least United can point to having the second leg at home in two weeks time. Still, the performance was absolutely lacking the desire and belief that we have become so used to seeing from Manchester United and it will take a real turnaround in mentality for the side to achieve the goals they had in mind at the beginning of the season.

At least they can have a few days to try and get their head right for a big March in which United face Liverpool and Manchester City at Old Trafford as well as the second leg of the Champions League. It could be critical for David Moyes as he needs to show that there are some positives at Old Trafford in what has been a dark season to this point, one which is destined to end without silverware and very close to ensuring they miss out on a Champions League place.


As I have mentioned above, the first two months of 2014 have been tough and hurt a decent looking season, but hopefully the last week is a sign of things turning back in a positive direction as March begins with a reduced Premier League schedule and the League Cup Final between Manchester City and Sunderland.


Everton v West Ham United Pick: For all the praise that Roberto Martinez has received this season for the way his Everton side have been playing and picking up results, they are once again in a familiar position of 7th in the League table and still not quite good enough to beat the very top teams in the Premier League.

There has been some misfortune for the side in their defeats at Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea, but the record books will show losses that effectively cost them a chance to get into the top four this season.

It has been a different story for Everton at Goodison Park this season and they remain in good form here as they bring in a 5 game winning run in all competitions. However, they have to be aware of a West Ham United team that have also picked up a lot of confidence as they moved up the table and away from the relegation zone.

While the majority of their positive results have come at home, West Ham are unbeaten in 3 away games and have found a defensive shape that will make them tough to beat.

I still think Everton really get going at Goodison Park and will exert a lot of pressure on the Hammers which is likely going to lead to the three points, particularly if Romelu Lukaku is available for selection. They have missed his presence up front and his return is critical for Everton to finish as high up the table as they can, as well as for their FA Cup ambitions.

I believe Everton win, but West Ham have scored in 5 of their last 6 away games and may also find the net in this one.


Fulham v Chelsea Pick: A West London derby that is going to have real ramifications at the top and bottom of the Premier League should be a fascinating one for the fans to enjoy, especially if Fulham can back up their performance at West Brom in this game.

The problem for Fulham at Craven Cottage has been the number of goals they have been conceding with the likes of Sunderland, Southampton and Liverpool all scoring 3 goals in wins here. However, Fulham will also believe they can test a Chelsea rearguard that has been looking a little more fragile of late as Fulham have scored in all but one Premier League game at home this season.

They will likely need to score at least once if they are to take something from the game because Chelsea have the pace in the forward positions to hurt Fulham in the same manner as Liverpool did, albeit without the one forward that Jose Mourinho believes would complete his side.

Chelsea have only failed to score in 1 of their last 8 away games in the Premier League so they too will be expected to score in this game at Craven Cottage and it does seem that everything is pointing to both teams scoring in the game.

I believe Chelsea are the more likely winners, but they haven't always had it easy at Craven Cottage and have also just lost some momentum in recent games. Therefore backing both teams to score is the only pick from the game without worrying about which side will win the game.


Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: So far this season, Manchester City, Chelsea, Everton and Manchester United have all failed to beat Stoke City at the Brittania Stadium and two of those sides have even failed to take home a point. Anyone who thought the arrival of Mark Hughes to replace Tony Pulis would make Stoke an easier touch at the Brittania Stadium would have been mistaken and this has regularly been a part of the world that has given Arsenal a lot of trouble.

The only one of the big teams that have come to this Stadium and won are Liverpool who outscored Stoke in a 3-5 win, but Stoke generally don't concede too many goals here and I think they are going to make this tough for Arsenal.

Arsenal also haven't been at their most convincing in their last two away games at Southampton and Liverpool and are perhaps a little fortunate to have picked up one point from those games.

I don't think this is going to be an easy game for Arsenal either and I am not sure why the layers think they deserve to be odds on to win at a venue that has been tough for the big teams all season. Add in Arsenal's own problems here and I think there it is a little generous to be getting Stoke City on the Asian Handicap at odds against.

The full pay out would come if Stoke manage to avoid defeat, but a one goal Arsenal win would return half the stake and that is the pick from the game.


Southampton v Liverpool Pick: For the neutral fan, this could be the right game that has been placed in front of the television cameras on Saturday evening as both Southampton and Liverpool have been scoring, and conceding, plenty of goals in recent games.

You have to think the visit of Liverpool will at least put some fire in the belly for the home players and fans and Southampton were very good when Arsenal visited them in January. However, they have to be concerned with the two goals they conceded against both Arsenal and Stoke City in their last 2 home games in the Premier League.

Liverpool themselves have scored 5 at Stoke City and 3 at Fulham in their most recent away games in the Premier League and have players like Daniel Sturridge in top form. They will use the pace on the counter attack to cause Southampton problems as the onus is on the home side to come forward and score goals, but Liverpool have to be worried about the fact that they have conceded 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 away games in the Premier League.

I am expecting chances at both ends in this game and the corresponding fixture did see four goals scored and I have a feeling we will see that tally matched on Saturday. There are goal-scorers in both sides and neither defence looks capable of keeping the other team from scoring when looking at the way they have played in recent weeks so over 3.5 goals looks to be the pick from the game.


Manchester City v Sunderland Pick: The first piece of silverware in England will be handed out this weekend as Manchester City take on Sunderland in the Capital One Cup Final from Wembley Stadium.

While you would have to say that Manchester City haven't looked as convincing in recent weeks as they have been for much of the season, the return of Sergio Aguero brings better balance for them going forward.

Add Aguero to the likes of David Silva, Samir Nasri and Yaya Toure and you can't help but expect Manchester City to score goals. They will be aided if Sunderland play as poorly as they did last week against Arsenal in a 4-1 loss at the Emirates Stadium, but I would be surprised if Gus Poyet hasn't given them a little more steel for this game.

It may not matter if City are feeling in rampant mood and while Sunderland have been able to beat this team regularly at the Stadium of Light, it might be much harder work on the big pitch at Wembley.

Sunderland may look to Wigan Athletic and their surprise win over Manchester City in the FA Cup last season, but I think that City side was perhaps affected by rumours surrounding Roberto Mancini at the time and I expect Manchester City to win this one by a couple of goals at least.


Tottenham Hotspur v Cardiff City Pick: There were times in their home win over Dnipro that Tottenham Hotspur were lacking in ideas and that is the only concern for them in this game. However, I don't believe Cardiff City have shown the same defensive discipline as the Ukrainian side did before the sending off and I think this could be a comfortable win for Spurs.

Both teams will be desperate for the three points in this game, but Cardiff City have been conceding too many goals away from home in their League games and haven't shown enough going forward to suggest they can keep this one competitive.

Cardiff have lost their last 6 away games in the Premier League all by at least two goals and Tottenham Hotspur can at least say that 3 of their last 5 home games have seen them win by at least two goals.

Spurs will have to show a little more creativity to reach that target again, but they have a player in Emmanuel Adebayor that looks motivated and is in form and I just believe there is too much about the home team in this one.

MY PICKS: Both Teams to Score and Everton to Win @ 3.30 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Fulham-Chelsea Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.63 Stan James (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 111-131-3, - 4.03 Units (389 Units Staked, - 1.04% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)