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Sunday, 14 July 2019

Wimbledon Tennis Day 13 Picks 2019- Gentlemen's Final (July 14th)

Simona Halep is the new Wimbledon Champion and I have to say it has got to be close to the best performance of her career when dismissing Serena Williams as comprehensively as she did.

I have always had a lot of time for Halep who works hard around the court, but I was not convinced she could find her best tennis on the grass to beat Williams. I was proven more than a little wrong as the Romanian showed her consistency and ability to play defensive tennis too much for Williams to cope with who remains a Grand Slam behind Margaret Court in terms of all time Grand Slam titles won.

The pressure has to be growing on Williams to try and get up to Court's twenty-four Slams and Wimbledon might have been her best chance to do that in 2019. She is going to be entering the top hard court events in the build up to the US Open, but she has not won the title in New York since 2014 and I do think women's tennis is competitive enough at the top to make it very hard for Serena Williams to win the remaining Grand Slam event of the 2019 season.

Serena Williams has struggled to play the very best players on the Tour and some of the aura around her has dissipated with injury and failure to win a Grand Slam since the 2017 Australian Open beginning to add up. I would not be surprised to see Williams as the favourite to win at Flushing Meadows, but I wouldn't be rushing out to back her at this stage either.

On Sunday we head into the Gentlemen's Final to wrap up Wimbledon 2019, although general sports fans are spoilt for choice on the day. The Cricket World Cup Final and the British Grand Prix are underway at the same time as the men's Final at Wimbledon, but the fact we have Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer involved should bring in a few casuals too.

In this day and age, many will have secondary viewing options on the day with laptops and tablets able to stream some of the events, but it isn't an ideal situation for any of the organisers. Twelve months ago the Wimbledon men's Final clashed with the World Cup Final so it is what it is.

Below you can read my Pick from the Wimbledon Final as well as the updated Wimbledon totals.

Novak Djokovic-Roger Federer over 39.5 games: We got to see another high quality match between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final on Friday, but it was not quite good enough for my selection of over 39.5 games. The total missed by one game and that was much to do with the 6-1 set secured by Rafael Nadal in the second set, while he did have a break point in the final game that would have been enough to cover the total games line if he had converted it.

Thankfully on the same day Novak Djokovic had already won his Semi Final in four sets over Roberto Bautista Agut which ensured a profit for the day.

The final match to be played at Wimbledon 2019 in the Singles tournament is the Gentlemen's Final between Djokovic and Federer and they have met three previous times on the grass courts of SW19. Novak Djokovic leads that head to head 2-1, while he is also 9-6 ahead when it comes to Grand Slam meetings between these players, but Federer is playing with some serious confidence now after coming through a sticky period in the middle of his Semi Final.

A strong serving day from the former World Number 1 will put the current World Number 1 and defending Champion Novak Djokovic under some serious pressure. Everyone acknowledges the very strong returning that the Serb can produce at his best, but on this surface an aggressive performance from Roger Federer will be well rewarded.

He will have to be as aggressive as he was against Nadal, and Federer can't be worried about getting things wrong because a defensive performance is one that Novak Djokovic will exploit. In the tournament Roger Federer's serving numbers have been very impressive and winning 70% of service points against Rafael Nadal are some eye-catching numbers.

Roger Federer was broken twice by Nadal, but both in the second set and that is also an indication of how well he had been serving on the day. The service numbers have been very consistent on the grass over the last three years and while there has been an element of decline on the return, the serve is also working to build pressure on opponent's who will know it is difficult to recover being a break down against Federer.

The truth is that Novak Djokovic's service numbers have been very consistent too over the same period and being the defending Wimbledon Champion means he is going to be mentally much better prepared for the surface than Rafael Nadal. It has been a few years since Nadal has reached the Wimbledon Final so perhaps he was mentally struggling in the big moments, but that isn't going to be the case for Djokovic who has kept his strong serving together through this tournament and over the last three years on the grass courts.

His returning is the more consistent of the two players, but Federer might take risks in this one to look to take this to Djokovic. Even with that in mind I do think the right player is being favoured, although I am not going to take on underdog Federer in this one.

I think it is unlikely that Novak Djokovic wins or loses this in three sets and so I am going back to the market I used for the Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal Semi Final. With a returner as capable as Djokovic there is a chance he could secure a set like Nadal did, but the serving of both players and the likely aggressive approach from Roger Federer should mean we get four sets that go relatively deep.

In their three Wimbledon matches, Novak Djokovic has held 89% of his service games compared with Roger Federer at 86%. All three have gone at least four sets with one of them going the distance, so I am anticipating a potential tie-breaker or two with the way the two have been able to serve so far in the tournament and through the recent years on the grass. In the last two matches between these two on the grass, we have seen at least two tie-breakers played each time and I am going to look for the two players to combine for enough games to cover this line.

Hopefully we do get to see a quality Final. I am expecting to see some very good tennis played considering the form of both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer at Wimbledon over the last two weeks and my selection for the final is not taking a position on either player, but on the match going beyond three sets and giving us four competitive sets at the least.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Roger Federer Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 55-41, + 21.44 Units (191 Units Staked, + 11.23% Yield)

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